How sanctions can work and not work based on science

[zubin]

Based on real evidence and science, ANY PUNISHMENT OR THREAT OF PUNISHMENT, in this case "economic sanctions", will not work when they are not strong enough from the beginning.

This means that when a country like Iran has endured sanctions for such a long time, and survived, sanctions will actually be rewarding to it!

Though I'm no supporter of capital punishment, the philosophy behind it is the same: fear will only come, and the sanction can only be effective, if the sanction is strong enough. If someone is imprisoned in a way that is tolerable, the next prison sentence will not work to deter them from crime!

The only conclusion available about the intention of a country like the US, a country that is fully aware of this science and thus knows Iran is going to get stronger through their measures, is corruption. It is a flaw of today's liberal democracies that a politician can construct fear in order to gain votes. It is surely understandable that Republicans, who are statistically shown to be voted in during times of threat, will construct threats for their own benefit. And all we are are a bunch of pawns!

[Dokhtar Bandari]

What do you suggest????

[zubin]

I suggest we be smart and do something that works. The problem is that some people's views of what's moral conflicts with what works. For example, some people think that people who commit murder should not be rehabilitated.

But I think that's a bunch of crap. If its good for society, its moral. If it causes more problems, its immoral. In this case, the answer to the question of what works is international political and economic liberalism. This means that countries do not interfere with each other's politics or economics unless in a state of emergency, leaving it to people to produce change in their own countries.

There IS a strong push for the US to, for example, start to leave the middle east. They have already left Saudi Arabia for this reason, and there is a lot of support to leave Iraq and Afghanistan. If the US is less interventionist, I believe on a scientific basis that Iran would start to liberalize internally. There will be no "enemy" for fundamentalists to fight anymore, and so the government will be forced to use reason, and they will be forced to listen to the people who will have a bigger voice in the absence of foreign intervention.

There is honestly almost intellectual unanimity on this solution. It is only a minority of politicians that distract away from this solution on the basis of "morality", but who are really just using the morality card to get more votes and power for themselves.

[Dokhtar Bandari]

"It would be a great misunderstanding of this doctrine to suppose that it is one of selfish indifference, which pretends that human beings have no business with each other's conduct in life, and that they should not concern themselves about the well-doing or well-being of one another, unless their own interest is involved. Instead of any diminution, there is need of a great increase of disinterested exertion to promote the good of others. But disinterested benevolence can find other instruments to persuade people to their good, than whips and scourges, either of the literal or the metaphorical sort. I am the last person to undervalue the self-regarding virtues; they are only second in importance, if even second, to the social. It is equally the business of education to cultivate both. But even education works by conviction and persuasion as well as by compulsion, and it is by the former only that, when the period of education is past, the self-regarding virtues should be inculcated. Human beings owe to each other help to distinguish the better from the worse, and encouragement to choose the former and avoid the latter. They should be for ever stimulating each other to increased exercise of their higher faculties, and increased direction of their feelings and aims towards wise instead of foolish, elevating instead of degrading, objects and contemplations. But neither one person, nor any number of persons, is warranted in saying to another human creature of ripe years, that he shall not do with his life for his own benefit what he chooses to do with it. He is the person most interested in his own well-being" JSM

[zubin]

in reference to that, my point is that one's 'higher faculties' and one's potential for a better life, is not being helped by the current situation. The very purpose of influencing each other has been corrupted. It falls to a question in psychology: are people good or bad? with less of the current "sanctions", but better yet, a more positive approach, will everyone suddenly change for the better? This is potential a scientific question, and the answer in this situation is yes. People do good when they are respected. Its human nature. But then you compound this as well and it just brings certainty: the existence of a threat is a more effective than tolerable sanctions as a deterrent. Sanctions builds anger and retaliation, but a threat is something one would rather avoid.

I think this section is going to turn into a philosophy section.

[Dokhtar Bandari]

LOL...all truths at one point of time have been philosophy, once a philosophy is experienced then it becomes a truth.

And I agree with you that force (sanction) is not an answer and it should be replaced with something empowering like respect for human integrity.

I wonder if we can sell that to the Islamic Fundamentalist who are raping our country? hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm...food for thoughts.

I think not. What I do think is that we can never go against something for example we can not fight against axis of evil, by santion or otherwise. But we have the power (power v. force) to fight for freedom and our dignity regardless of any ulteria motives.

"Make no mistake about it: Economic sanctions are acts of aggression. Sanctions increase poverty and misery among the very poorest inhabitants of targeted nations, and they breed tremendous resentment against those imposing them. But they rarely hurt the political and economic elites responsible for angering American leaders in the first place." Dr. Paul

Did you know that Sanctions actually hurt American Agriculture? well now you know. At the end of the day the truth is that Sanction is only a drumroll to further and louder drum beat...guess what that is? WAR..

[Dokhtar Bandari]

BTW: You have a great point regards capital punishment and I think you should get a "biest" (20) for your writing.

[zubin]

I'm flattered. I was quite impressed by your use of JS Mill. I can promise you though, that as new global conditions arise, there becomes the need for new authoritative writing. We can't follow traditional analyses, and we have far too much information to even want to. Unfortunately, most information in the world is simply sold (e.g. in universities), and people don't use the information for solving problems. Yet, the solutions using that information is there and can be fiercely advocated.

Cheers!

[Dokhtar Bandari]

I'm flattered. I was quite impressed by your use of JS Mill. I can promise you though, that as new global conditions arise, there becomes the need for new authoritative writing. We can't follow traditional analyses, and we have far too much information to even want to. Unfortunately, most information in the world is simply sold (e.g. in universities), and people don't use the information for solving problems. Yet, the solutions using that information is there and can be fiercely advocated.

Cheers!

Here..Here...

Information and energy create the nature of our reality, don't you agree? and that is how the politicians and religious zealous have taken us prisoner for eons.
I studies Poli Sci so JSM is a familiar ground for me, though I mostly and somewhat agree with Nietzsche and Shopenheimer. I do try to stay within the boundaries of my own self inflicted ideas however aurjous that may be.

Cheers right back atchya!

[zubin]

Here..Here...

Information and energy create the nature of our reality, don't you agree? and that is how the politicians and religious zealous have taken us prisoner for eons.
I studies Poli Sci so JSM is a familiar ground for me, though I mostly and somewhat agree with Nietzsche and Shopenheimer. I do try to stay within the boundaries of my own self inflicted ideas however aurjous that may be.

Cheers right back atchya!

ah, the evils of the day and how to get around them... but is this an intellectual enterprise for you or a social one? for me its purely practical and social.

about Mill vs. other political philosophers, I take him particularly seriously. but in essence, what I gather from Mill AND other philosophers (e.g. Nietzche) is a certain tolerance. and applying this to today, I would have to say that a certain amount of tolerance, albeit small, is necessary for the mullah's to fall from where they are... I understand that the norm is to not take this in as food, but the other principle of these great thinkers is the benefit of eccentricity against a norm.

[Dokhtar Bandari]

If I could separate the social from the intellectual I would be more inclined to forward an accurate reply.

Tolerance is essential in our society, one thing that we as Persians lack greatly. As far as mullahs...I wouldn't give them time of the day, however ignorant that may sound, it makes me feel good just saying it. However, my ignorant comment is not nearly as great as their ignorance toward humanity and human rights. I will hang every single one of them by their turban if you let me.

OK OK I know violence is not the answer...but damit I would do it if I could.

[zubin]

If I could separate the social from the intellectual I would be more inclined to forward an accurate reply.

Tolerance is essential in our society, one thing that we as Persians lack greatly. As far as mullahs...I wouldn't give them time of the day, however ignorant that may sound, it makes me feel good just saying it. However, my ignorant comment is not nearly as great as their ignorance toward humanity and human rights. I will hang every single one of them by their turban if you let me.

OK OK I know violence is not the answer...but damit I would do it if I could.

though one's emotion can never be invalid, it ofcourse needs to be supplemented by reason and objectivity. in my opinion the logical consequence of a hatred or grievance is that one should help eradicate the evil, even if it means understanding the evil person's perspective. for instance, to prevent a psychopath from committing murder, one often needs to understand why the person is acting the way he/she is. there may be a small shred of a legitimate grievance to his action, and he/she will only be deterred if that is acknowledged.

ofcourse the intellectual can't be separated from the social, but there is a common tendency is to separate the social from the intellectual. This is the great controversy of academia, how the goal of its research is not directly for social improvement, rather its directly for a market system of income and employment.

[mike435]

BOLD is regrading Sanctions and regular is background info

look all this is about a weak dollar
if America's number one priority was disarming iran or keeping it from getting nukes it would have used force or manipulate people who supply iran's nuclear program

sanction will make Iranian commerce and its impact weak on the global market/ economy

a move that iran frst tryed advancing on the US by using euro
when iran started to trade oil in euro that was the first hit against the US

now irans nuclear ambition no doughbt that is a real danger to israel and stratigcly to the greater region and western world.

sanctions right now are just revving things up and getting the world community ready for a war
think about it if you slowly whein iran off the global market how much easier is it to totatly take iran out of the picture when you have started the war


these sanction i think more than anything are helping the world to imagine a period with out a financially dominant iran. they are deminishing irans economic presence so when us starts a war the effect of it to the world economy is much less

at the end i think sanctions could work if the country is a democratically elected were people have a say, for iran no not really even if it hurts irninas they can take no action.

also sanction just make it easier for the population to go to war and to even want war
when yuu have the avrage person suffer he become much more angrier at the perty imposing there for would unite the people not agains the gate keepr (iranina government) but at the Americans who are imposing

and for americans they can take comfort in the fact that yes we tried everything

at the end of the day if America is really caring about policing the world it would have striked irans nuclear program long ago somthing that i think israel will eventualy do .

now if you want to know how sanction will work in the case of gaza and how it is diffrent engage me privatly or somewhere else.