An American in Iran

[Rasputin]

[Rasputin]

America's "global war on terror" brought the alarming stomp of infidel boots suddenly much nearer. American officials boasted that "real men go to Tehran," while President Bush conjured an Axis of Evil, with Iran at its center, and rebuffed a 2003 Iranian initiative to open a strategic dialogue. US officials soon spoke openly of bombing the country, of funding covert efforts to overthrow its leaders, and of the need to corral the world into imposing sanctions. Suddenly, America seemed to be acting out its part as International Arrogance in a script written long ago by Khomeini. The menace of Israel loomed larger, too, after its warplanes leveled neighborhoods in the Lebanese heartland of Iran's Shia coreligionists in the summer of 2006, and its leaders began debating a preemptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.

In Iran, even bitter critics of the government bristle at suggestions that a country with such huge hydrocarbon resources might not need atomic energy. Ordinary citizens parrot the official line that acquiring nuclear technology is a national right, that the program is legal under international law, and that it is entirely peaceful anyway. Even if Iran does make a bomb, many add, why shouldn't it? Is Iran less stable, or more dangerous, than next-door Pakistan? Has it warred with its neighbors more than nuclear-armed Israel?

There is some truth to such arguments, but they also reflect the success of President Ahmadinejad in framing the nuclear issue within the narrative of an epic struggle to overcome wicked forces and regain Iran's rightful stature among nations. There is, as a result, virtually no debate in Iran over the cost-effectiveness of the program, or the utility of developing an elaborate, industrial-scale capacity to enrich nuclear fuel, even though there are no operating nuclear plants capable of using it.

What is debated, heatedly, in the corridors of power, I was told, is how best to deal with international opposition to Iran's nuclear project. Opinions divide fairly neatly between the country's three main political camps. The reformists, who held sway during the 1997– 2005 tenure of President Mohammad Khatami, believe Iran has little to lose from bowing to the UN Security Council's demand to suspend nuclear enrichment, at least temporarily. Conservative pragmatists, such as those grouped around another former president, Ali-Akbar Hashemi-Rafsanjani, call for mixing toughness and flexibility, negotiating with other nations to secure Iran's goals while minimizing potential damage from trade and other sanctions. Ahmadinejad's usulgaran, for their part, appear to believe that Iran should brave out the storm without bending, raising the stakes to increase their leverage on other issues, such as pushing for an American withdrawal from Iraq. International pressure, as they see it, only helps mobilize domestic opinion behind the President. And besides, the hostile West would only greet any concession with demands for more.


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The release in Washington in early December of a radically revised intelligence estimate regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions has upended this debate. Predictably, Ahmadinejad's camp has declared a victory, asserting that America's change of tune reflects a recognition that Iran is too strong to be pushed around. But the fact is that it was the revelation of an alleged decision, taken in 2003 under the previous, reformist Iranian administration, to scrap earlier plans for producing nuclear weapons that has brought Iran a reprieve from threats of American punishment. Moreover, assuming the accuracy of the new intelligence estimate, it would seem that by covering up the cessation of a weapons program, the Ahmadinejad administration led Iran into very dangerous waters. Leaving aside the possibility of a "preemptive" attack, international sanctions have already cost Iran dearly, scaring away badly needed foreign investment, and sharply raising transaction costs for Iranian businesses.

Of course, Iranian officials say that there never was any weapons program. But it is hard to square the shape of the wide-ranging nuclear project, given its emphasis on fuel enrichment, with any other purpose. Charging several of Iran's former nuclear negotiators with espionage and treason, as President Ahmadinejad recently did, also suggests that there must have been some big secret to give away. There is also logic. If you look at Iran's strategic position when it started the program during the 1980s, in the middle of the grisly war with Iraq when its soldiers were being gassed by Saddam Hussein, having an atom bomb certainly made as much sense as for America after Iwo Jima.

Whatever the case, the fact remains that the revised National Intelligence Estimate provides an excellent opportunity to turn a new page in Iranian-American relations. As Iran's actions in support of the toppling of the Taliban in Afghanistan showed, and as its influence among Iraqi Shias suggests, there is much for both countries to gain from greater cooperation. A quarter-century of hostility between the US and Iran has produced nothing but trouble for both.

President Ahmadinejad appears to be aware of this. Describing the NIE as positive in recent comments, he added, "If they take one or two other steps forward, the situation [between Iran and America] would be significantly different." In mid-December, Russia announced that it had made an initial shipment of nuclear fuel to a reactor in Iran that will be under IAEA observation, and this was subsequently approved by Bush. Sadly, it is not clear, so far, that the Bush administration is ready to pursue direct negotiations with Tehran. Speaking recently before a skeptical audience in the Persian Gulf state of Bahrain, the secretary of defense, Robert Gates, warned that Iran remains a mortal threat. "Everywhere you turn," he said, "it is the policy of Iran to foment instability and chaos, no matter the strategic value or cost in the blood of innocents." There are plenty of reasons to dislike Iran's regime, particularly under its current administration, but such inflammatory rhetoric seems more calculated to close a possible opening than to take advantage of it.