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تلاش دولت آمریکا برای نجات بانک سرمایه گذار
بانک برادران لهمان 158 سال است که فعالیت داشته است
دولت آمریکا در تلاش است که از ورشکستگی چهارمین بانک بزرگ سرمایه گذار آمریکا جلوگیری کند تا از سلب اعتماد نسبت به بازار مالی این کشور پیشگیری کرده باشد.
این بانک سرمایه گذار که بانک "برادران لهمان" نام دارد، در اثر رکود اخیر در بازار مسکن آمریکا دچار ضررهای سنگینی شده است.
هم اکنون مذاکرات فشرده ای در شهر نیویورک در جریان است تا راهی برای نجات آن بانک پیدا شود.
بانک مرکزی و وزارت خزانه داری این کشور تلاش می کنند که رقبای بانک برادران لهمان را به خرید و اداره آن ترغیب کنند.
بانک بریتانیایی Barclays که در این گفتگوها شرکت داشت، روز یکشنبه (۱۴ سپتامبر) از خرید بانک برادران لهمان اعلان انصراف کرد.
این مذاکرات سه روز است که ادامه داشته، اما هنوز نتیجه ملموسی نداشته است.
انتظار می رود که اگر این گفتگوها تا صبح روز دوشنبه (۱۵ سپتامبر) که بازار بورس وال استریت نیویورک آغاز به کار خواهد کرد، نتیجه ای نداشته باشد، بانک برادران لهمان به احتمال زیاد مجبور به اعلان ورشکستگی شود.
دولت آمریکا نگران است که چنین تحولی سرمایه گذاران در سراسر جهان را به بازار مالی آمریکا بی اعتماد کند و به اقتصاد این کشور لطمه جدی بزند.
دولت آمریکا هفته گذشته کنترل دو موسسه مالی نیمه خصوصی که نقش مهمی در بازار مسکن این کشور ایفا می کنند را برعهده گرفت.
این دو شرکت که "فنی می" و "فردی مک" نام دارند، تامین کننده اصلی حدود ۵۰ درصد از وام های مسکنی هستند که در آمریکا به مردم اعطا شده است.
جورج بوش، رئیس جمهور آمریکا، در توجیه اقدام خود گفت که وضع نامساعد آن دو موسسه تهدیدی غیرقابل قبول برای اقتصاد آمریکا بود.
در ماه ژوئیه سال میلادی جاری هم بانک ایندی*مک، یکی از بزرگ ترین ارائه دهندگان وام مسکن آمریکا، اعلان ورشکستگی کرد.
در ماه مارس گذشته بانک آمریکایی "جی پی مورگان چیس" بانک سرمایه گذار "بر استرنز" Bear Stearns که در معرض ورشکستگی قرار داشت را خریداری کرد.
بر استرنز پنجمین بانک سرمایه گذار بزرگ در بازار وال استریت نیویورک بود و در کانون بحران وام مسکن آمریکا قرار داشت.
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AIG Falls on Concern Shareholders Will Be Wiped Out
American International Group Inc. fell 44 percent on speculation the government's takeover will ultimately wipe out shareholders.
The U.S. plan to save AIG, the nation's largest insurer by assets, may give the government an 80 percent stake in return for an $85 billion loan, and dividends may be halted to common and preferred stockholders. The U.S. reversed its opposition to a loan after private efforts collapsed and the Federal Reserve concluded that ``a disorderly failure of AIG could add to already significant levels of financial market fragility.''
The ``punitive'' interest rate on the two-year loan ``makes it extremely clear that this is not a subsidy extended to keep the company afloat but rather a stranglehold that makes AIG unviable while ensuring that its obligations will be met,'' said Marco Annunziata, an analyst at UniCredit SpA, in a note to clients. ``This is to all extents and purposes a controlled bankruptcy.''
AIG unraveled as the worst housing crisis since the Great Depression led to more than $18 billion of losses in the past year. A meltdown could have cost the financial industry $180 billion, according to RBC Capital Markets, because AIG provided insurance on more than $441 billion of fixed-income investments held by the world's biggest institutions, including $57.8 billion in securities tied to subprime mortgages.
`Systemic Risk'
``It's an enormous relief,'' said David Havens, credit analyst for UBS AG in Stamford, Connecticut. ``Nobody really knows what it would have meant if they would have been allowed to fail, but there was an enormous amount of systemic risk. The problem was, nobody really knew how bad it could have been.''
The agreement will give the company, which sells insurance in more than 130 countries, time to sell assets ``on an orderly basis,'' AIG said in a statement. The credit line, secured by AIG's assets, is 8.5 percentage points above the three-month London interbank offered rate, or a current rate of about 11.5 percent.
Chief Executive Officer Robert Willumstad, 63, will be replaced by former Allstate Corp. CEO Edward Liddy, 62.
AIG declined $1.70 to $2.05 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The insurer has plunged 96 percent this year.
AIG's $2.5 billion of 5.85 percent notes due in 2018 fell 1.75 cents to 43 cents on the dollar in New York after earlier rising 14.25 cents, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of he Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.
The debt yields 19.2 percent, or 15.8 percentage points more than similar-maturity Treasuries, Trace data show.
Credit Downgrades
The survival of the 89-year-old insurer fell into doubt when Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service cut its credit ratings on Sept. 15. The reductions threatened to force AIG to post more than $13 billion in collateral when the company was already short on cash. AIG couldn't raise money by selling shares after the stock plunged to less than $4 a share from $70.11 in October of last year.
The $85 billion loan will give AIG time to sell units, New York Insurance Superintendent Eric Dinallo said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``There is absolutely no solvency issue'' with AIG, he said.
The loan ``greatly exceeds any near-term needs for liquidity,'' S&P said in a statement today.
The Fed's loan doesn't require asset sales or the company's liquidation, though these are the most likely ways AIG will repay the Fed, central bank staff officials told reporters on condition of anonymity. Blackstone Group LP advised AIG on the transaction.
Markets Unprepared
The Fed doesn't have an expectation of whether AIG will be smaller, nonexistent or similar to its current form at the end of the loan's term, the staffers said.
The Fed or Treasury will end up holding the AIG stake, the staffers said. The Fed bailed out AIG while refusing aid to Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., which collapsed earlier this week, because financial markets were more prepared for a Lehman failure, a Fed staff official said.
The Fed stepped in after JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which were brought in to help assess AIG, failed to come up with a solution, according to a person familiar with the talks. Liddy is currently on the board of Goldman, the company Henry Paulson ran as CEO before becoming the U.S. Treasury secretary in 2006.
Hank Greenberg
Willumstad, the former Citigroup Inc. president who left the bank in 2005 to seek a CEO position, was named to AIG's top post in June. His predecessor, Martin Sullivan, was chief for three years until being ousted after two record quarterly net losses. Maurice ``Hank'' Greenberg reigned at AIG for almost four decades until he was forced to retire in 2005 amid regulatory probes.
Greenberg, who remains one of the company's biggest stakeholders, said the company needed a bridge loan instead of a plan that put the company under government control. An investor group led by Greenberg said in a federal filing hours before the rescue was announced it might want to buy the company or some units or make loans to AIG.
``Why would you want to wipe out shareholders when you just need a bridge loan?'' Greenberg, 83, said in an interview before the announcement. ``It doesn't make any sense.'' Greenberg declined to comment after the Fed announcement, spokesman Glen Rochkind said.
Unit Sales
Businesses that may be sold by AIG include American General Finance Corp., the division that makes home and auto loans, said Citigroup analyst Joshua Shanker. The unit generated $2.89 billion in revenue last year, about 2.6 percent of AIG's total. Other candidates include AIG's U.S. variable-annuity business, and a 59 percent stake in reinsurer Transatlantic Holdings Inc., he said.
Asset manager AIG Investments, with 5.1 percent of AIG's revenue, could also be sold, said Gary Ransom of Fox-Pitt Kelton Cochran Caronia Waller.
American General Finance's price could be more than $6 billion if the unit sold for twice its book value. AIG Investments could fetch more than $3 billion if it sold for 2.5 percent of clients' assets under management. The Transatlantic stake is worth about $2.3 billion, based on yesterday's share price. The variable annuity results aren't broken out, making an estimate difficult, said Shanker. AIG acquired the business a decade ago when it bought SunAmerica for $19.7 billion in stock.
Aircraft Leasing
AIG's aircraft-leasing unit International Lease Finance Corp. may be bought by investors led by the unit's founder, Steven Udvar-Hazy, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing unnamed people. Udvar-Hazy has been in discussions with potential investors since Sept. 14, the Journal said.
AIG may find buyers for life insurance businesses outside the U.S. where competitors including Hartford Financial Services Group Inc., MetLife Inc., Prudential Financial Inc., and Canada's Manulife Financial Corp. have been adding customers.
``In developing insurance markets around the world, the growth rates are, on average, twice what the growth rates in the U.S. are,'' MetLife Chief Financial Officer William Wheeler said Sept. 10. ``When properties come up for sale around the world, it's very competitive.''
Auto insurers are also consolidating, making AIG's car unit a takeover candidate. Liberty Mutual Group Inc. agreed in April to buy Safeco Corp. for $6.2 billion, the U.S. industry's biggest transaction since 2004.
A Different Look
``AIG has yet to communicate broadly to shareholders on the company's intentions,'' Wachovia Corp. analyst John Hall said in a note to investors. ``Whatever plan the company may have AIG will look decidedly different in two years.''
AIG rejected a bid for a joint investment by Allianz SE and J.C. Flowers & Co. on Sept. 14, said two people with knowledge of the offer.
Allianz, Europe's biggest insurer, and Flowers, the New York-based private equity firm run by J. Christopher Flowers, proposed the cash infusion to help AIG fend off a liquidity crunch, the people said.
Sabia Schwarzer, an Allianz spokeswoman, declined to comment. Flowers and Nicholas Ashooh, an AIG spokesman, didn't return calls seeking comment.Comment
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Comment
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First, it was the foreign policy crash of 2001. Yes, that much-milked by Bush 9/11 which instead of serving as wake up call to review and remedy America’s deplorable policies towards the peoples of the Middle East, only provided the Bush administration with a presumed casus belli as well as a raison-d’ètre for both the neocon empire-building and the economic sacking of the nation by an unscrupulous elite. Now, we all know the cost and results of replacing a “call to reason” with a “call to arms.”
And now, as if a foreign policy crash hadn’t been enough seven years ago, and as if trying to mend relations with much of the world weren’t a formidable task, here comes the nuclear detonation that precedes America’s economic crash; what may turn out to be the mother of all crashes, but one still to reach ground zero. O, we’ll survive the impact here in America, but other than the elite, and a small affluentocracy, the rest of us, probably 85 to 90 percent of the population, will de facto help redefine this nation as the United Slaves of America.
Give me Capitalism, or give me Death! That seems to be the droning chant in America; one that long ago replaced what Patrick Henry is attributed to have said, as liberty’s great luster quickly dulled and became money-matte as greed and gluttony are allowed to roam free, without appropriate restraints. And sure enough, as our capitalism has become more expropriatory, greedy, cruel and predatory, we have been brainwashed to feel we have no choice but to learn to live with it. It’s our country, our way of life… and God’s will being done here on earth. Americans have rationalized the suppression of two capital sins, insisting that the number ought to be five, not seven. After all, isn’t greed really the basis for capitalism, and consumerism (gluttony) the way we measure well-being and success in today’s society?
Quickly, very quickly, it’s becoming vividly clear that our much-touted American Dream is metamorphosing into an economic nightmare, one taking place right before our eyes. Another gilded epoch in America is quickly coming to past; this time, however, its exit appears to be of the farewell-forever kind, as our nation no longer looms so vast and overpowering, economically, before the rest of the world.
A week ago, as Black Monday in Wall Street helped turn on the lights on Main Street, there was a hint of mobilization by the mainstream media to do journalistic speculation, for their efforts did appear hapless on investigation, as they started reporting that maybe the nation’s economic fundamentals weren’t as sound as they had been reporting all along… courtesy, of course, of the White House (and Fed) propaganda machine.
Then, after a week of turmoil and the appearance of a White Knight or, should we say, a White Trojan Horse, the US as the guarantor of last resort, the market ended the week just where it had started. And during the weekend, the polluted minds of a corrupt and incapable Congress, the “brilliant” Bush advisory cadre and an incredible Fed that has really known the facts that would bring the nation to this chaos for years, got together to construct a bailout package, or program, that they project will add up to $700 billion. And, with zero power that we citizens have in this republic of ours, where democracy is a cruel joke, the citizenry, many somewhat remorseful for their contribution to greed and gluttony, will bite their lips and take it in stride. Except for one thing… this action will solve nothing, only provide a temporary lifeline for domestic as well as foreign banks that may have been affected by the greed-induced mortgage crisis; and that eventually will help cronies acquire additional wealth as the disposition of real estate assets takes place. But these folks, who dedicated “their Sunday” to the welfare of the nation, and an orderly solution to our economic ills, are missing the point; they still don’t get it!
We seem to micro-look at the situation and never grasp the problem in its entirety. First, it was just mismanaged sub-prime lending, and then the escalation went on until all major financial institutions became houses of ill-repute. But no $700 billion is going to save these institutions, nor our entire economic system; not when we may have somewhere between $350 and $500 trillion in structured financial paper (derivatives) just roaming in this US, most of it in the over the counter markets. An incredible mess!
Back in 1999, Alan Greenspan, addressing the Futures Industry Association, stated: “As we approach the twenty-first century, both banks and non-banks will need to continually reassess whether their risk management practices have kept pace with their own evolving activities and with changes in financial market dynamics and readjust accordingly. Should they succeed I am quite confident that market participants will continue to increase their reliance on derivatives to unbundled risks and thereby enhance the process of wealth creation.”
Well, Mr. Greenspan, did it occur to you that self-regulation that directly or indirectly you (the Fed) promoted, the do-as-you-please risk management practices, would become pure hoax and that the derivative market would grow more than ten-fold? The process of wealth creation was enhanced, all right… but only for a thieving few. What a fraud you’ve been, sir!
And now, as our economy is at an ICU, attached for dear life to a few tubes, we have a staff of quacks coming up with a reviving prognosis; the same staff, let me remind you, instrumental in creating this bacterium with an unregulated nucleus: an administration bent on redistributing wealth to the affluent; a Congress in the hands of lobbyists; and a Fed operating at the White House beck and call.
Our economic-political predators of the Republican-biped species have succeeded in taking down regulations, or not permitting the creation of necessary ones – to bring fairness and order to the marketplace – so as to bestow wealth on a few, part of the “privatization” dogma of conservatism. Now, as the house of cards is collapsing, there seems to be a bipartisan cry in Washington that favors “socialization” of all costs that might be incurred.
If Japan’s economic crisis of 1989-1992, one with repercussions lingering to date, is a close model to the economic fiasco now in the US, we can expect the Dow 500 going down to the 6,500 level within a year or so, and remain there for the next decade. As for Real Estate folks, their flipping will not be of houses, but hamburgers.
God help us all! We have had two crashes within one decade: in foreign policy and in the economy. We, small-case demos, have become the United Slaves of America!
© 2008 Ben Tanosborn
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افزایش نگران کننده نرخ بیکاری در آمریکا
کارشناسان اقتصادی می گویند نرخ بیکاری افزایش خواهد یافت
آماری که در آمریکا انتشار شده، حاکی از این است که نرخ بیکاری در این کشور در ماه اکتبر افزایش قابل توجهی یافته و به 6.5 درصد رسیده است.
یک چنین نرخ بیکاری از 14 سال قبل تاکنون در آمریکا بی سابقه بوده است و نشان می دهد که در ماه اکتبر، 240 هزار نفر در این کشور بیکار شده اند.
تعداد بیکاران در ماه های اوت و سپتامبر گذشته نیز به مراتب بیشتر از آن بود که قبلا تصور می شد.
تعداد بیکاران آمریکا در حال حاضر بیش از 10 میلیون نفر تخمین زده می شود که حاکی از افزایش دو میلیون و 800 هزار به تعداد بیکاران آمریکا در یک سال گذشته است.
آمار جدید تایید کننده این نگرانی است که اقتصاد آمریکا احتمالا دچار رکود است، روندی که در ماه های اخیر محسوس بوده است.
نرخ بیکاری در آمریکا در آغاز سال جاری میلادی کمتر از 5 درصد بود.
همزمان با انتشار آمار بیکاران در آمریکا، کارخانه اتومبیل سازی آمریکایی فورد اعلام کرد که در سه ماهه سوم سال 2008 حدود 3میلیارد دلار ضرر کرده است.
مقامات کمپانی فورد می گویند که تا پایان ماه ژانویه سال 2009، میزان مخارج و حقوق کارمندان خود را ده درصد دیگرکاهش خواهند داد که به معنی بیکار کردن کارمندان بیشتری خواهد بود.
بخی از تحلیلگران می گویند سرمایه گذاران به تدریج به این نتیجه می رسند که ممکن است آمریکا با عمیق ترین و طولانی ترین رکود اقتصادی مواجه شود.
باراک اوباما، رئیس جمهور منتخب آمریکا امروز جمعه 7 نوامبر، با مشاوران اقتصادی خود گفتگو خواهد کرد.
معضل بیکاری که احتمالا وخیم تر خواهد شد از مسائلی است که پیش بینی می شود در این گفتگو ها مورد بحث قرار گیرد.
Comment
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Businesses should expect more scrutiny of their books, moves to expand health insurance, an end to no-bid Pentagon contracting and a host of other changes when President-elect Barack Obama takes office.
Obama, who will be sworn in on January 20, has supported the $700 billion rescue plan to inject liquidity in the U.S. financial industry, but has insisted that banks taking the money must accept rules.
In his first news conference after the election, Obama said he wanted Congress to pass another stimulus package, but gave little in the way of specific business initiatives.
He did indicate that help may be coming for General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co and Chrysler LLC, which have been hobbled by the credit crunch.
"I have made it a high priority for my transition team to work on additional policy options to help the auto industry adjust, weather the financial crisis, and succeed in producing fuel-efficient cars here in the United States," he said.
Among other appointees, Obama will name a new chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission, which was criticized for inadequately supervising investment banks and not protecting investors.
"I think it will become a more robust agency with increased powers," said Rich Ferlauto, director of pension and benefit policy at the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees. "I think they will appoint a strong chairman."
The loss of trillions of dollars of shareholder value even as top executives walked away with hefty pay packages transformed executive pay into a bipartisan whipping boy.
Under pressure, the current White House did set some limits on executive pay as part of the government's costly rescue plan to thaw frozen credit markets. But even before the financial collapse, Obama supported moves to give shareholders more say on setting executive pay.
HIGH-TECH PREZ ELECT
Obama is expected to promote economic growth by encouraging building infrastructure for high-speed Internet use, and has vowed to create a new chief technology czar that may be at the Cabinet level.
"Making broadband available to everyone will be priority No. 1," for Obama, said Paul Glenshur, an analyst at Stanford Eagle.
Some have suggested the infrastructure piece of a second stimulus package could include incentives to develop and expand broadband. One growth area could be rural areas.
Expanding the universal service fund -- which phone companies pay into to subsidize service in the countryside -- to include broadband is seen as one potential mechanism to expand this broadband access.
On the campaign trail, Obama talked about the need to control the ballooning weapons' costs, review major Pentagon acquisition programs and end no-bid contracting. He also pledged to make changes to reduce budget overruns, schedule slips and product underperformance.
"We anticipate fewer new program starts and new initiatives for greater cost controls on defense programs," Morgan Stanley analyst Heidi Wood said.
Spending for new arms has risen $919 billion since 2000.
On the antitrust front, Obama's appointees are expected to follow the current Justice Department on enforcing laws against price-fixing, but raise the bar on merger enforcement.
The Bush Justice Department's decision to approve mergers like satellite radio companies XM and Sirius in 2007, and appliance makers Maytag and Whirlpool in 2006 raised eyebrows among Washington antitrust lawyers.
"The biggest difference is likely to be at the Justice Department. A lot of the Obama team has indicated that," said Michael Knight, an antitrust expert with Cooley, Godward Kronish LLP.
Obama has said he opposed agreements between pharmaceutical giants and generic companies that delay bringing cheaper drugs to market.
He has criticized mergers in the health care field, saying: "These changes were supposed to make the industry more efficient, but instead premiums have skyrocketed, increasing over 87 percent over the past six years."
Drugmakers, hospitals and health insurers could face other changes since Obama and many congressional Democrats favor negotiating lower prices in Medicare's prescription drug program. Democrats have also expressed a desire to sharply expand the number of Americans with insurance.
"Improving quality, putting a new focus on prevention, eliminating medical errors, paying for what works -- both candidates emphasized that and there's strong bipartisan support for that in Congress," said Mark McClellan, who worked for both Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. He now heads the Brookings Institution's Engelberg Center for Health Care Reform.Comment
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The Americans, who with the rest of the world feel betrayed and in dismay, have, by and large, lost confidence in their government and the so-called competitive capital enterprise system. The economic calamity, inflicted on them and the rest of the world, was brought about by their own government’s deregulation, lack of oversight and excessive tax cuts for the corporate super rich with the empty promise of dividends trickling down. Moreover, Wall Street’s criminal culprits in collusion with the misconduct of government ideologues, has caused the sudden disappearance of capital in the tens of trillions of dollars. This, in turn, has led to a deep sense of distrust, disappointment and insecurity that is unprecedented in modern times. According to independent surveys, all branches and levels of government, especially the Executive, and the corporate and financial sectors have received the lowest confidence ratings of all times from the general public.
Many of European nations, such as Sweden, with a population and economy 1/30th that of the U.S., has just provided a $225 billion dollars bailout to jumpstart their economy; others will have to give additional monies in trillions of dollars in the dire hope of turning their economy around. It is estimated that by the time this crisis is fully resolved, optimistically in about five to ten years, the quality of life, our democratic principles and national security will remain undermined. Especially the people in the third world on whom such economic losses will be leveraged through forced concessions, will immensely widen the gap resulting in more global crises. Domestic crime rates, i.e., suicides and homicides, grand and petty thefts, family abuse and divorce will steadily rise for sometime.
The full criminal prosecutions of the corporate/government “52” culprits of the current catastrophe, whose (in-) actions have led to economic terrorism making our national security more vulnerable than any other despicable foreign terrorist act, is due now. We then need a truly multi-jurisdictional approach devoid of greed. It should require each citizen to live within his or her own means, a leaner and more efficient and responsive government that provides more proactive fiduciary oversight for corporations and financial institutions, subject them to more regulations and tax levies worldwide, and a comprehensive revitalization of national infrastructure. All of these measures should collectively be guided by the principle of sustainability and intergenerational equity.Comment
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The U.S. at the head of the western powers tries as much as possible to hold onto some aspects of the unipolar status that it gained after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. In a period less than a decade, American ideologues head-mastered by groups of cold warriors angrily rejected any idea of a multi- polar world, declaring that no other country except the U.S. is qualified to be at the head of the “new world order.” This claim went unchallenged until the U.S. occupation of Iraq exposed the vulnerabilities of the U.S. as a single superpower on the world stage.
Today, after the U.S.-hatched quagmires in Iraq, Afghanistan and now Pakistan, to say nothing of Palestine, and in the eye of an economic hurricane, that claim sounds like an expression of idiocy. During the last decade of the 20th century there were “moments” that the U.S. administration prided itself on having achieved the unipolar status and those moments coincided with U.S. military attacks on other countries, specifically Iraq, Yugoslavia, Haiti, and threats against North Korea and Iran.
Today even the most power hungry strata within the American ruling class, including the Republican Party and a right-wing faction of the Democrats, admit that the future belongs to a multi-polar world order. The question is how fast at this juncture the world economic crisis, whose focal points are in the U.S. and Britain, would accelerate the trend of diminishing economic and consequently military power of the U.S. and Europe?
According to the most recent forecast by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), Global Trends 2025, by mid 20’s “the international system will be a global multi-polar one with disparity in national power continuing to narrow between developed and developing countries.”
With little ambiguity, the intelligence report reveals that “owing to the rise of emerging powers, a globalizing economy, an historic transfer of relative wealth and economic power from west to east, and the growing influence of non-state actors…the international system- as constructed following the Second World War – will be almost unrecognizable.”
In a report cited this month in the Financial Times, the People’s Republic of China bypassed Germany in terms of the size of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and attained the rank of the world’s third largest economy, behind the U.S. and Japan. The report also forecasted that within a period less than a decade, China will overtake Japan in terms of purchasing power parity.
By all indications, the current financial and economic crisis will intensify the woes resulting from U.S. economic stagnation and magnify the ever-increasing size of the U.S. debt to the rest of the world. “The financial and economic crash of 2008, the worst in over 75 years, is a major geopolitical setback for the U.S. and Europe,” says Roger C. Altman in the most recent issue of Foreign Affairs magazine. “Over the medium term, Washington and European governments will have neither the resources nor the economic credibility to play the role in global affairs that they otherwise would have played.”
The inadequacy of the NIC forecast is that it was prepared well before the full force and devastating impacts of the current crisis of the economy became apparent. Therefore, the forecast mainly considers the Western economies and geopolitical descent as a long drawn-out and extended process. By focusing only on the BRIC countries – Brazil, Russia, India, and China – the NIC forecast concludes that it will take them another 30-35 years before they could collectively match the wealth of the present Group of Seven industrialized countries of the U.S., Britain, Japan, Germany, France, Italy and Spain.
The most probable case would be that many oppressed and strangulated nations and countries under the present world order would join hands within or outside of the BRIC to establish new trade pacts, capital investment cooperatives, and even security alliances well before 2040-2045, as the forecast predicts. By now, after a decade of wars, it is brilliantly clear that the overwhelming majority of humanity across the globe cannot wait to see that the U.S.-imposed mono-polar world order is left behind us and a new, much more humane and inclusive system rises out of the ashes of the old.Comment
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