Oil Made In Iran

[Rasputin]

Oil surges on supply, Iran worries

NEW YORK - Oil and other petroleum futures surged Thursday amid supply concerns sparked by a decline in crude inventories at a key Oklahoma terminal and the confrontation between the West and Iran.

"This is basically fear of a fundamental supply disruption," said Fadel Gheit, an analyst at Oppenheimer & Co.

The U.S. is trying to raise support for new U.N. sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programs. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says the nuclear issue is "closed," and has vowed to defy any U.N. sanctions.

Many traders are betting the West will take action against Iran before the end of the year, and worry that economic sanctions or a military strike will result in the disruption of oil supplies from the Middle East, Gheit said.

"I think we probably built in a dollar or two of (Iran-related) premium here in the last 48 hours," said James Cordier, president of Liberty Trading Group in Tampa, Fla.

Also stoking concerns about crude supplies was a slight decline in oil inventories at the New York Mercantile Exchange crude delivery point of Cushing, Okla., last week. That decline was about the only element of Wednesday's inventory report by the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration that was supportive of prices, analysts said. But it was enough to spark a late rally on Wednesday and to boost oil prices again on Thursday.

Analysts said a number of tropical weather systems were not affecting prices, as none are forecast to disrupt critical gas and oil infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.

November light, sweet crude jumped $2.58 to settle at $82.88 a barrel Thursday on the Nymex, while October gasoline rose 6.65 cents to settle at $2.0939 a gallon. Prices got an additional boost in afternoon trading from a Dow Jones Newswires report that 700,000 barrels of crude oil originally scheduled to be shipped to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in September have been rescheduled for October delivery, which will increase demand for crude next month.

Crude prices peaked near $84 a barrel last week before falling for several sessions. Prices settled below $80 Tuesday and dipped below $79 on Wednesday before rallying late in the day. Analysts are divided on oil's future direction. Gheit, for instance, argues that there are no fundamental reasons for $80 oil. He sees oil's true value as being closer to $60 a barrel.

Cordier, on the other hand, thinks bullish sentiment will boost crude prices to near $85 a barrel.

Most analysts agree that oil prices will begin a seasonal decline within the next month.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 6.95 cents to settle at $2.2521 a gallon, while November natural gas fell 12.7 cents to settle at $6.919 per 1,000 cubic feet. The government on Thursday reported that natural gas inventories rose by 74 billion cubic feet last week, slightly more than expected. Natural gas inventories are higher than they were one year ago.

In London, November Brent crude rose $2.60 to settle at $80.03 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

At the pump, meanwhile, the average national price of a gallon of gas fell 0.2 cent overnight to $2.811, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Some analysts expect gas prices to rise further to catch up with oil's recent gains. Others argue that gas prices won't rise nearly as much as oil prices have, because gasoline futures have lagged oil's advance.

In addition to the supply concerns, energy traders continue to be encouraged by positive economic reports, analysts say. Energy investors are closely monitoring whether the problems affecting the subprime lending industry will spread, causing a wider economic slowdown and affecting demand for oil and gasoline.

The Commerce Department on Thursday said the economy grew at a 3.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter, less than expected but much faster than the first quarter's 0.6 percent growth rate. New home sales fell in August to the lowest level in seven years, but the housing sector's problems have yet to show up in overall economic figures.

"As long as we don't have horrid numbers coming out, people think we're going to weather this," Cordier said.

Also supporting high oil prices are the weak dollar and unrest in Nigeria. Because of the dollar's decline, foreign investors are actually paying less for oil futures now than in recent years, despite record crude prices, Cordier said.

In Nigeria, Africa's biggest oil producer and one of the top overseas suppliers to the United States, an foreign oil worker was killed and another kidnapped.

[Rasputin]

Oil hits record above $92 on weak dollar, Nigeria

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices shot to an all-time high above $92 a barrel on Friday as the tumbling dollar and Nigerian output disruptions helped extend a rally that has lifted prices nearly 30 percent since August.



Worries that supplies may come up short ahead of the Northern Hemisphere winter have fueled the rise, drawing a fresh wave of speculative money from investors.

U.S. crude settled up $1.40 at $91.86 a barrel, off the record $92.22 struck during electronic trading earlier.

Oil was closing in on its inflation-adjusted high of $101.70 seen over the course of April 1980, a year after the Iranian revolution and at the start of the Iran-Iraq war.

London Brent gained $1.21 to $88.69 a barrel.

"Fresh highs are now attracting fresh buying, especially following yesterday's violation of the futures highs just above the $90 level," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch & Associates in Galena, Illinois.

Prices jumped past $90 a barrel after a U.S. government report on Wednesday showed a sharp drop in crude stocks in the world's biggest energy consumer.

Oil got a boost on Friday after a rebel attack on a oil rig in OPEC-member Nigeria operated by Italian firm ENI shut 50,000 barrels per day of production.

Traders were also eyeing new U.S. sanctions against Iran, the No. 4 oil exporter, which is at odds with the U.N. Security Council over its nuclear program. Washington accuses Tehran's Revolutionary Guard of spreading weapons of mass destruction.

TUMBLING DOLLAR

Unprecedented weakness in the U.S. dollar has been another factor supporting dollar-denominated commodities.

In anticipation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may cut interest rates next week, the dollar hit record lows against the euro and a basket of currencies Friday.

Moves by central banks to cut interest rates and pump billions of dollars into financial markets to ease a credit crunch have added fuel to oil's rally.

Oil's drive to record highs has stirred concern from consumer governments, and the administration of President George W. Bush said Friday oil prices were "way too high."

But U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney said the nation's strategic oil stockpiles would not be used to reign in prices.

Analysts say the wider economic problems may be dragging down demand in the giant U.S. market, while there are some signs of a growth slowdown in China, the world's second largest consumer.

China's apparent oil demand grew at the slowest rate in 20 months in September, up just 0.3 percent from a year earlier.

Despite worries from big oil importers, members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have said they are unlikely to hike production at a meeting next month in Saudi Arabia.

The cartel has agreed to increase output by 500,000 barrels per day starting November 1, and members insist prices are not being driven by a supply shortfall.

Data from Lloyd's Marine Intelligence Unit showed OPEC's oil exports, excluding Angola, jumped 1 million bpd in the first two weeks of October versus the last two weeks of September.

[Rasputin]

NEW YORK - Oil futures shot higher Tuesday, closing above $100 for the first time as investors bet that crude prices will keep climbing despite evidence of plentiful supplies and falling demand. At the pump, gas prices rose further above $3 a gallon.

There was no single driver behind oil's sharp price jump; investors seized on an explosion at a 67,000 barrel per day refinery in Texas, the falling dollar, the possibility that OPEC may cut production next month, and continuing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela.

Gasoline and heating oil prices appeared to be leading the advance, rising faster in percentage terms than oil due to the explosion Monday at Alon USA's Big Spring, Texas, refinery, which could be shuttered for two months.

"The refinery fire in Texas is making people a little concerned," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research Inc. in Amherst, Mass.

Light, sweet crude for March delivery rose $4.51 to settle at a record $100.01 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after earlier rising to $100.10, a new trading record. It was the first time since Jan. 3 that oil had been above $100.

March gasoline jumped 10.93 cents to settle at $2.6031 a gallon, and March heating oil rose 11.45 cents to settle at $2.7614 a gallon, also a record.

Oil prices are still within the range of inflation-adjusted highs set in early 1980. Depending on how the adjustment is calculated, $38 a barrel then would be worth $96 to $103 or more today.

The dollar fell Tuesday, giving investors another reason to buy oil. Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the greenback is falling.

For the moment, investors appear to have put aside concerns about the economy that have sent oil prices down into the mid-$80 range twice since crude peaked above $100 last month. Traders are instead focused on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which will meet early next month to map out production plans, and Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez made conflicting statements this weekend about the country's legal dispute with Exxon Mobil Corp.

OPEC could move to cut production in the second quarter, typically a period of low demand, though many analysts feel that's unlikely. In Venezuela, Chavez said he was not serious about an earlier threat to cut oil sales to the U.S., but also threatened to sue Exxon Mobil. The world's largest oil company is fighting Venezuela's nationalization of an oil project, and recently convinced several courts to freeze $12 billion in Venezuelan oil assets.

None of the news is enough to justify a nearly $3 a barrel jump in the price of crude, said James Cordier, founder of OptionSellers.com, a Tampa, Fla., trading firm. Echoing other analysts, Cordier argued that the oil market is in the process of "decoupling" from oil's supply and demand fundamentals. He said investors drawn by the falling dollar and momentum are pushing oil prices sharply higher despite reports last week from the Energy Department, OPEC and the International Energy Agency which all cut oil demand growth predictions for this year.

"Everyone concurs that we've got smaller demand coming in the U.S.," Cordier said.

Retail gas prices, meanwhile, jumped 1.8 cents to a national average price of $3.032 a gallon Tuesday, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Retail prices, which typically lag the futures market, are following oil prices higher. The Energy Department expects gas prices to peak near $3.40 a gallon this spring.

[Rasputin]

Iran established its first oil products bourse Sunday in a free trade zone on the Persian Gulf Island of Kish, the country's oil ministry said.

A statement posted on the ministry's Web site said 100 tons of polyethylene consignment was traded at the market's opening on the island, which houses the offices of about 100 Iranian and foreign oil companies.

Oil and petrochemical products will be traded in Iranian Rials, as well as all other hard currencies, the statement quoted Iranian Oil Minister Gholam Hossein Nozari as saying. About 20 brokers are already active in the market, it said.

"The bourse provides an economic opportunity for Iranians, other countries and foreign customers," Nozari was quoted as saying.

Iran produces more than 20 million tons of petrochemical products per year.

Iran has already registered for another oil bourse, in which it has said it hopes to trade oil in Euros instead of dollars, to reduce any American influence over the Islamic Republic's economy.

A bourse official, Mahdi Karbasian, told the IRNA official news agency that such an oil market would begin operating within the next year.

While most oil markets are traded in U.S. dollars, Iran first floated the idea of trading oil in Euros in the early 2000s during the tenure of reformist president Mohammad Khatami. It gained new life after the nationalist Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005.

As the fourth-largest oil producer in the world, Iran has a measure of influence over international oil markets. The country ranks second for output among OPEC Countries, and controls about 5 percent of the global oil supply.

Tehran also partially controls the Persian Gulf's Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world's oil supply must pass.

Iran has sought to wield its oil resources as a bargaining tool in its ongoing standoff with the West over its nuclear program.

The U.N. Security Council is considering imposing a third set of sanctions on Iran for defying a request to halt uranium enrichment. But Tehran has expressed doubt that the world body would impose sanctions on the country's oil sector, because such a move would likely drive global oil prices higher.

[Rasputin]

كسي مي داند بهاي نفت چرا اين اندازه بالا رفته است؟

بهاي نفت در روز چهارشنبه در بازارهاي نيويورك ركورد تازه 101 دلار و 32 سنت در بشكه را ثبت كرد و در نهايت در پايان روز 100 دلار و 74 سنت معامله شد.
گزارش هاي مختلف اين افزايش بها را به دلايل مختلفي نسبت داده اند، اما كدام يك درست است؟


بهاي نفت خام اين هفته در نيويورك ركورد تازه اي به جا گذاشت

برخي مي گويند افزايش بها به دليل احتمال كاهش توليد توسط كارتل نفتي اوپك است.

سايرين مي گويند اين وضع ناشي از نگراني در مورد قطع همكاري ونزوئلا با شركت هاي نفتي غرب است.

همچنين برخي انفجار روز دوشنبه در يك پالايشگاه بزرگ نفتي در ايالت تگزاس آمريكا را جرقه اي مي دانند كه به افزايش شديد منجر شد.

اما حقيقت اين است كه افزايش بها مي تواند از دلايل كاملا متفاوتي سرچشمه گيرد.

شالوده ها

جان هال از شركت مشاوره انرژي "جان هال اسوسيتس" مي گويد: "چرا روز سه شنبه اتفاق افتاد؟ واقعيت اين است كه كسي واقعا نمي داند موضوع چيست يا اينكه اوضاع به كدام سمت مي رود."

بنابراين چه چيزي است كه باعث بالا و پايين شدن قيمت نفت مي شود؟

مارك لوئيس از شركت "مشاوران بازار انرژي" مي گويد: "مساله به شالوده ها مربوط مي شود."

شالوده ها يعني عواملي كه بر عرضه و تقاضاي نفت اثر مي گذارند.

اموري مثل افزايش تقاضا در چين و هند، و همچنين بيم رويارويي آمريكا و ايران كه مي تواند عرضه را مختل كند، باعث بالا رفتن بهاي نفت بوده است.

حالت ديگر اين است كه عوامل مالي ممكن است موثر باشند، مانند نقش صندوق هاي سرمايه گذاري حفاظت شده (hedge fund) يا حتي شايد هوسراني يك مبادله كننده بازار نفت براي مبادله يك بشكه نفت بالاتر از 100 دلار.

مشكل اين است كه اطلاعات مربوط به شالوده ها به آساني در دسترس نيست.

'بي معني'

آقاي لوئيس مي گويد: "ما واقعا نمي دانيم كه اين شالوده ها در هر لحظه از زمان چگونه رفتار مي كنند."

"بازارها به دنبال نشانه هايي هستند كه شالوده ها مي فرستند. برخي از آنها بي ربط هستند، برخي غلط هستند، برخي هم بي معني هستند، اما به هرحال روي قيمت اثر مي گذارند."



مانند رونق دات كام dotcom (اينترنت) در دهه نود است. آن رونق ناشي از تورمي كاذب بود، اما تا وقتي مردم به آن ايمان داشتند قيمت ها بالاتر و بالاتر مي رفت


مارك لئويس

زماني كه نفت در بازار نيويورك براي نخستين بار در ابتداي سال 2008 از 100 دلار در بشكه تجاوز كرد، يكي از عوامل ذكر شده براي آن ترور بي نظير بوتو در پاكستان در روز 27 دسامبر 2007 بود.

شان كرونين، دبير"آرگوس گلوبال ماركتس" گفت: "آن موقع چنين عاملي برايمان بي معني بود."

وي مي گويد كه مردم خيلي مشتاقند نوسانات بازار را به عوامل ژئوپوليتيكي نسبت دهند.

وي افزايش بها را به انتظارات بيش از حد خوشبينانه در مورد توليد نفت توسط كشورهاي غيراوپك - و همچنين نشانه هاي پايبندي ظاهري اعضاي اوپك به تمايل بيشتر به نگاه داشتن سقف توليد مربوط مي داند.

'نمي توان بيكار نشست'

صرف نظر از اين جريان هاي بلندمدت، مبادله كنندگان نفت بايد تصميم هاي آني بگيرند.

آقاي هال مي گويد: "نمي توان يك روز يا دو روز نشست تا ديد چه اتفاقي مي افتد".

"معلوم شد كه آزمايش موشكي كره شمالي يا ترور بي نظير بوتو هيچ تاثير واقعي نداشته است، اما مي توانست داشته باشد."

اطلاعات مربوط به برخي عواملي كه احتمال بيشتري دارد بر عرضه و تقاضا موثر باشند، مانند آمار تقاضا در چين، در دسترس نيستند.

اين باعث مي شود كه اخبار جزئي مربوط به شالوده ها، مانند توليدي يك پالايشگاه منفرد، وزني بيش از ارزش واقعي بيابد.

آقاي لوئيس مي گويد: "تغييرات كوچك در بخش هاي كم اهميت بخش مربوط به شالوده ها، اگر قابل رؤيت باشند، مي تواند تاثيري چشمگير بر بهاي نفت داشته باشد - يعني به اندازه چند دلار."

به اين ترتيب به نظر مي رسد ميان عواملي كه با داشتن تاثير رواني باعث افزايش قيمت مي شوند و آنهايي كه واقعا بر عرضه و تقاضاي نفت اثر مي گذارند تفاوت وجود داشته باشد.

و ممكن است كه افزايش بهاي ناشي از عوامل گروه اول (داراي تاثير رواني) شكننده باشند.

آقاي لوئيس مي گويد: "اين مثل رونق موسوم به دات كام dotcom (شركت هاي اينترنتي) در دهه نود است. آن رونق ناشي از تورمي كاذب بود، اما تا وقتي مردم به آن ايمان داشتند قيمت ها بالاتر و بالاتر مي رفت."

"وقتي اين باورها از دست رفت، بها هم افت كرد. و اين اخطار آميز است."

[gg666]

It's mainly to manipulate the Market in Middle east. And the price will go higher again. Daghighan yadam nist ke tooye in Forum bood ya jaye digeh, tarafye tabestoone piarsal bood ke sare jaryane inke gharar bood Bazare nafte iran be Euro shoroo be kar kone goftam ke gheimate naft to Bazarhaye digeh mire bala. in afzayeshe gheymat edame dare, va az hade nesabe khodesh ham migzare. Bahsesh jalebe va toolani ke hamash bar migarde be Politics.

[Rasputin]

افزایش بهای نفت منعکس کننده یک نگرانی عمیق در بازار است و آن اینکه با توجه به میزان سرمایه گذاری هایی که در زمینه تولید صورت می گیرد آیا ظرفیت تولید جهانی قادر خواهد بود پاسخگوی افزایش تقاضا در سال های آتی باشد یا خیر.


به گزارش شانا، خبرگزاری فرانسه از وین در گزارشی نوشت: «فرانسوا لکارو» تحلیلگر انستیتو نفت فرانسه معتقد است: توضیح مشکل نهادی در گران شدن قیمت نفت بسیار ساده است؛ نیاز دنیا به نفت سریعتر از ظرفیت های تولید در حال افزایش است.

وی معتقد است: قیمت های کنونی نفت را می توان چنین ترجمه کرد: میزان کنونی تولید برای برآورده کردن نیازهای به شدت رو به افزایش کشورهای در حال ترقی آسیا و خاورمیانه کافی نیست.

«انستیتو نفت فرانسه» مرکزی برای انجام پژوهش های علمی، گسترش صنعتی، تعلیم و تربیت افراد متخصص و نیز اطلاع رسانی در زمینه نفت و گاز است.

این مرکز همچنین درباره فناوری های نو در زمینه انرژی، مسائل زیست محیطی، استفاده از سوخت های گیاهی، هیدروژن، جذب و ذخیره سازی دی اکسید کربن تخصص دارد.

«مایک ویتنر» تحلیلگر بانک «سوسیه ته ژنرال» فرانسه نیز معتقد است: سرمایه گذاری های ناکافی در زمینه تولید نفت، تنها دلیل افزایش قیمت نفت نیست اما می توان آن را یکی از مهم ترین عوامل افزایش قیمت این ماده دانست.

بانک «سوسیه ته» ژنرال با حدود یک قرن و نیم قدمت، یکی از قدیمی ترین و معتبرترین بانک های فرانسه است و یکی از سه ستون صنعت بانکی این کشور به شمار می رود.
عمده فعالیت های «سوسیه ته ژنرال» علاوه بر بانکداری، بیمه، مسائل مالی و ارائه مشاوره است.

در حالی که قیمت نفت روز دوشنبه به آستانه بشکه ای 104 دلار رسید، سازمان کشورهای صادرکننده نفت (اوپک) تولید خود را در اجلاس امروز (15 اسفند ماه) در وین افزایش نداد.

هر چند که کشورهای مصرف کننده و در راس آنها آمریکا و همچنین آژانس بین المللی انرژی اوپک را متهم می کنند که با خودداری از افزایش تولید خود، به افزایش قیمت نفت دامن زده است اما اعضای اوپک نیز در مقابل این اتهام ها معتقدند که بازار به خوبی تامین می شود و دلایل اصلی گران بودن نفت، سرمایه گذاری اندک در زمینه پالایش و تولید، فعالیت های سفته بازان و نیز تنش های ژئوپلیتیک است.

«آندریس پیه بالگز» کمیسیر انرژی اتحادیه اروپا چند روز قبل گفت: افزایش تولید اوپک به میزان 500 هزار بشکه در روز نیز برای آرام کردن بازار و کاهش قیمت ها کافی نخواهد بود.

وی افزود: انتظار دارم که اوپک ثابت کند هنوز هم نفتی برایش باقی مانده است و این سازمان قادر خواهد بود در میان مدت و دراز مدت تولید خود را افزایش دهد چرا که در غیر این صورت قیمت نفت می تواند تا بشکه ای 200 دلار نیز افزایش یابد.

پیه بالگز معتقد است برای آرام کردن حالت عصبی معامله گران نفتی، بهتر است اوپک سیاستی شفاف و قابل پیش بینی در زمینه سرمایه گذاری و نیز عرضه در پیش بگیرد.

بر اساس آمار «آژانس بین المللی انرژی»، هم اکنون 230 پروژه در سراسر جهان یا در حال اجرا هستند و یا در آینده اجرا خواهند شد اما ظرفیت تولید جهانی را فقط 25 میلیون بشکه در روز افزایش خواهند داد در حالی که نیاز آینده دنیا به انرژی بسیار بیش از این رقم افزایش خواهد یافت.

یکی از دلایل کمبود سرمایه گذاری در زمینه تولید نفت دسترسی دشوار شرکت های بین المللی به بیشتر ذخایر عظیم نفت به دلیل قرار گرفتن این ذخایر در منطقه خاورمیانه است.

« ژان – لوئی شیلانسکی» دبیرکل «اتحادیه صنایع نفتی فرانسه» نیز چندی پیش گفت: غیر از عربستان سعودی، ظرفیت افزایش تولید در آینده نزدیک در دیگر کشورها بسیار محدود است و همچنین دسترسی به مناطق غنی نفت دشوار شده است.

«اتحادیه صنایع نفتی فرانسه»، سازمانی تخصصی است که تمام شرکت های نفتی فعال در فرانسه در آن عضو هستند. این سازمان، سخنگوی صنعت نفت فرانسه و حامی منافع اقتصادی و صنعتی اعضا در زمینه های فعالیت آنها یعنی اکتشاف و تولید، پالایش، حمل و نقل و توزیع فرآورده های نفتی است.

در چنین شرایطی، شرکت های نفتی باید به نفت های غیرمتعارف که استخراج و استفاده از آنها از نظر فنی دشوار است و در حال حاضر از نظر اقتصادی بسیار پرهزینه هستند، روی آورند.

مهم ترین ذخایر نفت خام غیر متعارف، ماسه های نفتی «آلبرتا» در کانادا و نیز ذخایر نفت خام فوق سنگین ونزوئلا است.

دیگر عامل کمبود سرمایه گذاری در زمینه تولید نفت، به گفته فاتح بیرول مدیر مطالعات اقتصادی آژانس بین المللی انرژی، تمایل شرکت های ملی نفت کشورهای تولید کننده به حفظ ذخایر خود برای نسل های آینده این کشورها است.

یکی دیگر از عواملی که موجب شده است کشورهای تولید کننده چندان علاقه ای به سرمایه گذاری بیشتر نداشته باشند، عدم اطمینان شدید آنها به تقاضای نفت در آینده است.

کشورهای تولید کننده معتقدند گرایش مصرف کننده ها به انرژی های جایگزین که رقیبی خطرناک برای نفت خام هستند، تهدیدی جدی برای امنیت تقاضا است.

عربستان سعودی، بزرگ ترین تولید کننده نفت جهان اعلام کرده است در نظر دارد تولید خود را تا پایان سال 2009 میلادی از 11 میلیون بشکه در روز کنونی به 12 میلیون و 500 هزار بشکه در روز افزایش دهد.

«علی النعیمی» وزیر نفت عربستان سعودی چندی پیش گفت: به نظر من، تولید 12 میلیون و 500 هزار بشکه در روز در شرایط کنونی کاملا کافی است زیرا اگر ما به پیش بینی ها در خصوص تقاضا در دراز مدت، برای مثال در سال 2030، نگاه کنیم، می بینیم که ارقام به طور مرتب در حال کاهش هستند.

[Rasputin]

British PM warns of global oil 'shock'

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown warned Wednesday that the world faced an era-defining oil "shock" that required urgent action, as European leaders struggled to contain growing protests over soaring fuel prices.
"It is now understood that a global shock on this scale requires global solutions," Brown wrote in The Guardian newspaper.

Record oil prices of around 135 dollars a barrel have contributed to protests worldwide over the rise in fuel and food costs, with fishermen and truck drivers taking the lead in Europe, blocking ports and road access to oil depots.

"However much we might wish otherwise, there is no easy answer to the global oil problem without a comprehensive international strategy," Brown said, adding that the problem should be made a "top priority" at the EU summit next month and the gathering of G8 leaders in July.

"The way we confront these issues will define our era," he said.

Brown's warning came a day after French President Nicolas Sarkozy urged a Europe-wide cut in consumer taxes on fuel and Portugal's economy minister Manuel Pinho called on the Slovenian head of the European Union to hold an urgent debate on the crisis.

French consumers pay about 19.6 percent VAT on the price of fuel and Sarkozy renewed his reduction proposal on Wednesday during a visit to Warsaw.

"Should we really apply the same tax rate when the price of a barrel of oil has doubled in one year and tripled in three years? I don't think this is a crazy question to be asking," Sarkozy told reporters in the Polish capital.


While fishermen called off strikes in key French ports on Wednesday, lifting a week-long blockade of the country's largest oil refinery, truckers and farmers stepped up their own protests over soaring fuel prices.

A group of 300 farmers used their cars to block the entry to a Total fuel depot near Toulouse, while around 40 protesting truck drivers slowed traffic to a near-halt on Bordeaux's main ring road.

And a policeman and a protestor were slightly injured when riot police using tear gas battled farmers blocking an oil depot near Sete on France's Mediterranean coast.

In Bulgaria, where annual monthly salaries are among the lowest in the EU and inflation rates among the highest, around 150 trucks drove slowly along capital Sofia's ring road, disrupting traffic.

Bulgarian bus companies were preparing to launch a nationwide one-hour strike on Friday.

In Spain, the main trucking union has called for an indefinite strike beginning June 8.

At a meeting Tuesday of EU agriculture ministers in Slovenia, France and Spain led the call for direct EU economic assistance to the fishing industry.

EU member states can currently give their fishermen a subsidy of up to 30,000 euros (47,167 dollars) over a three-year period without seeking the European Commission's approval.

But French and Spanish fishermen consider this too low and have demanded additional help from their governments to be able to cope with the sharp increase of diesel prices.

Italian, Greek and Portuguese fishermen have threatened to strike later this week.

The Netherlands and Portugal however expressed scepticism, arguing for a long-term solution for the fishermen, including modernising their fleets and increasing competitiveness.

"Short-term solutions are the most popular in political terms, but they have no lasting effect," said Portuguese Agriculture Minister Jaime Silva.

[Rasputin]

Iran says Gulf oil route at risk if attacked

The Revolutionary Guards said Iran would impose controls on shipping in the vital Gulf oil route if Iran was attacked and warned regional states of reprisals if they took part, a newspaper reported on Saturday.

Fear of an escalation in the standoff between the West and Iran, the world's fourth largest oil producer, have been one factor propping up sky-high oil prices. Crude hit a record level on international markets near $143 a barrel on Friday.

Speculation about a possible attack on Iran because of its disputed nuclear ambitions has risen since a report this month said Israel had practiced such a strike, prompting increasingly tough talk of retaliation, if pushed, from Tehran.

"Naturally every country under attack by an enemy uses all its capacity and opportunities to confront the enemy," Guards commander-in-chief Mohammad Ali Jafari told Jam-e Jam newspaper in some of the toughest language Iran has used so far.

Analysts say Iran may not match the firepower of U.S. forces but could still cause havoc in the region using unconventional tactics, such as deploying small craft to attack ships, or using allies in the area to strike at U.S. or Israeli interests.

"Regarding the main route for exiting energy, Iran will definitely act to impose control on the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz," Jafari said of the Gulf waterway through which about two-fifths of all globally traded oil passes.

Iranian officials have in the past sent mixed signals about whether Iran would use oil as a weapon. But such threats, when made, have sent jitters through the crude market for fear of disrupting supplies from big OPEC producers in the Gulf.

The Islamic Republic insists its nuclear program is peaceful and aimed at generating electricity. But the West and Israel fear Iran is seeking to build atomic bombs. Israel is believed to be the only Middle East state with nuclear arms.

Washington has said it wants diplomacy to end the nuclear row but has not ruled out military action should that fail.

'RIGHT TO RESPOND'

"If there is a confrontation between us and the enemy from outside the region, definitely the scope (of the confrontation) will reach the oil issue," Jafari said.

The Revolutionary Guards are the ideologically driven wing of Iran's military with air, sea and land capabilities, and a separate command structure to regular units.

"After this action (of Iran imposing controls on the Gulf waterway), the oil price will rise very considerably and this is among the factors deterring the enemies," Jafari said.

He said any military action might "be able to delay Iran's nuclear activities but this delay will certainly be very short".

Jafari warned neighbors not to let their territory be used.

"If the attack takes place from the soil of another country ... the country attacked has the right to respond to the enemy's military action from where the operation started," he said.

Kuwait, the launchpad for the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, and Iraq itself, where U.S. troops are now stationed, have both said they would not let their land be used for a strike on Iran. The U.S. military has bases in other Gulf states and Afghanistan.

Jafari said U.S. forces were "more vulnerable than Israelis" because of their troops in the area. Iran's top authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has in the past said Iran would target U.S. interests if attacked.

"Iran can in different ways harm American interests even far away," the Guards commander said.

Jafari suggested Iran's allies in the region, who include Lebanon's Shi'ite militia Hezbollah, could also retaliate. He referred to Iran's ties with those living in Lebanon's Shi'ite heartland of south Lebanon but did not refer to any group.

"Israelis know if they take military action against Iran ... the abilities of the Islamic and Shi'ite world, especially in the region, will deliver fatal blows," Jafari said, adding that Israel was in range of Iranian missiles.

He also hinted that Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist group that receives Iranian funding and which has sent suicide bombers into Israel, might act. But, again, he did not name the group.

[Rasputin]

Oil prices were down near $124 a barrel Monday as new data showed more signs of an economic slowdown in the United States.

But the market remained watchful of a tropical storm which could affect oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and concerns that a showdown over Iran's nuclear program could threaten crude supplies out of the Middle East also put a floor beneath oil prices.

By the afternoon in Europe, light, sweet crude for September delivery was down 84 cents to $124.26 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained $1.02 on Friday to settle at $125.10 a barrel.

In London, September Brent crude was down 49 cents to $123.69 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Fears of demand erosion in the United States were further confirmed Monday, as the U.S. Commerce Department said consumer spending, after adjusting for inflation, fell in June.

"Without an additional government policy jolt, the economy is headed for a very slow second half of 2008," said Peter Morici, an economist and business professor at the University of Maryland. "Either the third or fourth quarters should register negative GDP growth."

The National Hurricane Center issued a hurricane watch Sunday for the coast of western Louisiana and eastern Texas, which means that hurricane conditions are possible from Tropical Storm Edouard until late Monday in the area.

The fifth named storm of the 2008 hurricane season has sustained maximum winds of about 50 miles (80 kilometers) per hour. By Sunday night, Edouard was located about 80 miles (129 kilometers) east-southeast off the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 390 miles (630 kilometers) east of Galveston, Texas.

Regarding Iran, U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Saturday that the United States would have no choice "but to begin again to prepare sanctions resolutions for the (U.N.) Security Council" if Iran did not halt the development of its uranium enrichment program.

Rice said that given the U.N.'s current scheduling, sanctions probably could not be expected in the next few weeks, but the U.S. will begin working with allies toward that goal.

"There's concern about a potential confrontation down the line," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz consultancy in Singapore.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Sunday that diplomacy is the only way out of his country's standoff with the West as an informal deadline expired on an offer of economic and other incentives by six world powers if Iran agreed to curb enrichment.

Iran's leader made the comments a day after asserting that his country would not give up its "nuclear rights," signaling that it would refuse demands to stop enriching uranium or at least not to expand its enrichment work.

The United States and its European allies fear Iran intends to use the technology to develop material for nuclear weapons under the cloak of a civilian nuclear power program. Iran denies the accusation.

On Friday, oil shot up as much as $4 after news reports quoted Israeli Deputy Prime Minister Shaul Mofaz as saying that Iran's nuclear program was nearing a "major breakthrough" and that his country must be "prepared for every option."

Mofaz, a hawkish former defense minister and military chief, is a top contender to succeed Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who announced last week he will resign in September amid a corruption probe.

In Nigeria, two French oil workers were kidnapped in the country's volatile southern oil region Sunday. A statement released by France's Foreign Ministry confirmed the kidnappings of the French nationals, but did not provide additional details about the two or say for which company they worked.

"You've got three supply-side worries pushing oil higher today: Iran, the storm and Nigeria," Shum said.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 0.08 cent to $3.4360 a gallon (3.8 liters) while gasoline prices shed 0.36 cent to $3.0807 a gallon. Natural gas futures lost 15.8 cents to $9.231 per 1,000 cubic feet.

[Rasputin]

ایران خواهان افزایش قیمت نفت در جهان


ایران بعد از عربستان سعودی دومین تولید کننده بزرگ نفت در جهان است
غلامحسین نوذری، وزیر نفت ایران، تاکید کرده است که ایران خواهان افزایش قیمت نفت است. به گفته وی، باید بین عرضه و تقاضا برای نفت در بازارهای جهانی تعادل ایجاد شود.
قیمت متوسط نفت خام در دو ماه اخیر از بشکه ای ۱۴۷ دلار به حدود ۷۲ دلار کاهش یافته است. این امر کشورهای تولید کننده نفت را به شدت نگران کرده است.

محمود بهمنی، رئیس بانک مرکزی ایران پیشتر هشدار داده بود که در صورت ادامه کاهش بهای نفت، اقتصاد ایران با مشکلات جدی مواجه خواهد شد.

قرار است سازمان کشورهای صادرکننده نفت (اوپک) روز جمعه این هفته- ۲۴ اکتبر- در وین، پایتخت اتریش یک نشست اضطراری برای مقابله با کاهش شدید بهای نفت برگزار کند.

در آستانه این نشست، وزیر نفت ایران اذعان کرده که قيمت نفت قابل پيش *بينی نيست، اما در عین حال تاکید کرده است که باید تعادل در بازارهای جهانی نفت برقرار شود.

به گفته غلامحسین نوذری، هزينه *های اجرای طرح های نفتی نسبت به سال *های گذشته دو تا سه برابر افزايش یافته است.

ایران بعد از عربستان سعودی دومین تولید کننده بزرگ نفت در جهان است.

انتظار می رود که ۱۲ کشور عضو اوپک در نشست آتی خود با کاهش عرضه نفت به بازار موافقت کنند.

کشورهای عضو اوپک حدود ۴۰ درصد نفت جهان را تامین می کنند.

هم زمان، گوردون براون نخست وزیر بریتانیا، از برنامه احتمالی اوپک برای کاهش عرضه نفت به شدت انتقاد کرده است.

او روز یکشنبه (۱۹ اکتبر) چنین کاری را شرم آور خواند.

[Rasputin]

Thailand is preparing to barter rice for oil from Iran as part of its attempt to empty the government's huge stockpiles more quickly.

Apiradi Tantraporn, the director-general of the Commerce Ministry's Foreign Trade Department, is scheduled to visit Iran by mid-November to discuss the specifications of oil and rice that would be exchanged, according Commerce Minister Chaiya Sasomsab.

He said that talks would also continue with authorities in Teheran for a straight government-to-government deal for selling rice.

Iran is one of Thailand's major rice customers, purchasing around 600,000 tonnes of its one million tonnes in annual imports.

However, it has bought only 60,000 tonnes of Thai rice so far this year, staying on the sidelines during the first half of 2008 when Thai rice prices surged to a record high of $1,080 per tonne.

Iran has high demand for rice but no commercial banks accept letters of credit from Iran because of United Nations sanctions related to Teheran's nuclear programme.

Mr Chaiya also said yesterday that the government might delay its plan to release 2.1 million tonnes of old rice from its stockpile, because prices have fallen and sales would be made at a loss.

The government has accumulated 4.3 million tonnes of milled rice in intervention schemes since 2006. Around 2.1 million tonnes of that are old rice that officials had intended to release quickly to prepare space for a new buying scheme starting on Nov 1.

"We could hold back the plan for some time until Vietnam sells out its rice at cheaper prices, otherwise we would suffer losses," Mr Chaiya said.

Vietnamese traders currently quote rice export prices at around $400 per tonne, compared with $630 for Thailand's benchmark white rice.

According to Mr Chaiya, Vietnam is likely to speed up selling 400,000 tonnes of surplus rice before the harvesting of the new crop early next year.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, said a temporary halt was a good idea because accelerated sales would place further pressure on rice prices and discourage exporters from bidding.

"If the government sells now, prices will fall further," said Mr Chookiat. "The government needs instead to fine-tune its rice marketing strategy, as Vietnam itself is expected to speed up selling its grain, as its exporters own no large warehouses, and more importantly they need cash to repay loans that carry interest rates as high as 22%."

However, Mr Chaiya said the government may sell rice from its stocks at a loss because it must empty warehouses before the next crop arrives.

"Given the rice price slump, the government is suffering a loss of 2,000 baht per tonne (from the existing stockpile)," said Mr Chaiya. "The market mechanism alone is to blame for this loss."

Officials have pledged to buy more rice from farmers at assured prices even as the export price of white rice has dropped 36% since May.

Between January and October, Thailand exported 8.7 million tonnes of rice, up 31% from the same period of last year when it sold 6.6 million tonnes.

[Rasputin]

I've always been dubious about Barack Obama's offer to negotiate with Iran — not because I didn't believe that it was the right strategy, but because I didn't believe we had enough leverage to succeed. And negotiating in the Middle East without leverage is like playing baseball without a bat.

Well, if Obama does win the presidency, my gut tells me that he's going to get a chance to negotiate with the Iranians — with a bat in his hand.

Have you seen the reports that Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, is suffering from exhaustion? It's probably because he is not sleeping at night. I know why. Watching oil prices fall from $147 a barrel to $57 is not like counting sheep. It's the kind of thing that gives an Iranian autocrat bad dreams.

After all, it was the collapse of global oil prices in the early 1990s that brought down the Soviet Union. And Iran today is looking very Soviet to me.

As Vladimir Mau, president of Russia's Academy of National Economy, pointed out to me, it was the long period of high oil prices followed by sharply lower oil prices that killed the Soviet Union. The spike in oil prices in the 1970s deluded the Kremlin into overextending subsidies at home and invading Afghanistan abroad — and then the collapse in prices in the '80s helped bring down that overextended empire.

(Incidentally, this was exactly what happened to the shah of Iran: 1) Sudden surge in oil prices. 2) Delusions of grandeur. 3) Sudden contraction of oil prices. 4) Dramatic downfall. 5) You're toast.)

Under Ahmadinejad, Iran's mullahs have gone on a domestic subsidy binge — using oil money to cushion the prices of food, gasoline, mortgages and to create jobs — to buy off the Iranian people. But the one thing Ahmadinejad couldn't buy was real economic growth. Iran today has 30 percent inflation, 11 percent unemployment and huge underemployment with thousands of young college grads, engineers and architects selling pizzas and driving taxis. And now with oil prices falling, Iran — just like the Soviet Union — is going to have to pull back spending across the board. Fasten your seat belts.

The U.N. has imposed three rounds of sanctions against Iran since Ahmadinejad took office in 2005 because of Iran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment. But high oil prices minimized those sanctions; collapsing oil prices will now magnify those sanctions. If prices stay low, there is a good chance Iran will be open to negotiating over its nuclear program with the next U.S. president.

That is a good thing because Iran also funds Hezbollah, Hamas, Syria and the anti-U.S. Shiites in Iraq. If America wants to get out of Iraq and leave behind a decent outcome, plus break the deadlocks in Lebanon and Israel-Palestine, it needs to end the cold war with Iran. Possible? I don't know, but the collapse of oil prices should give us a shot.

But let's use our leverage smartly and not exaggerate Iran's strength. Just as I believe that we should drop the reward for the capture of Osama bin Laden — from $50 million to one penny, plus an autographed picture of Dick Cheney — we need to deflate the Iranian mullahs as well. Let them chase us.

Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, compares it to bargaining for a Persian carpet in Tehran. "When you go inside the carpet shop, the first thing you are supposed to do is feign disinterest," he explains. "The last thing you want to suggest is 'We are not leaving without that carpet.' 'Well,' the dealer will say, 'if you feel so strongly about it ...' "

The other lesson from the carpet bazaar, says Sadjadpour, "is that there is never a price tag on any carpet. The dealer is not looking for a fixed price, but the highest price he can get — and the Iran price is constantly fluctuating depending on the price of oil." Let's now use that to our advantage.

Barack Hussein Obama would present another challenge for Iran's mullahs. Their whole rationale for being is that they are resisting a hegemonic American power that wants to keep everyone down. Suddenly, next week, Iranians may look up and see that the country their leaders call "The Great Satan" has just elected "a guy whose middle name is the central figure in Shiite Islam — Hussein — and whose last name — Obama — when transliterated into Farsi, means 'He is with us,' " said Sadjadpour.

Iran is ripe for deflating. Its power was inflated by the price of oil and the popularity of its leader, who was cheered simply because he was willing to poke America with a stick. But as a real nation-building enterprise, the Islamic Revolution in Iran has been an abject failure.

"When you ask young Arabs which leaders in the region they most admire," said Sadjadpour, they will usually answer the leaders of Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. "When you ask them where in the Middle East would you most like to live," he added, "the answer is usually socially open places like Dubai or Beirut. The Islamic Republic of Iran is never in the top 10."

[Rasputin]

Three weeks ago, a hard-line cleric close to Iran's president gloated publicly that the world financial crisis was God's punishment on the United States. The laughter, however, was short-lived.

Iran plunged this week into a bitter storm of political recrimination, largely directed at President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, as officials and ordinary Iranians realized with shock that the Islamic republic faces a severe economic crisis of its own.

The reason: As oil prices plunge because of the global slowdown, Iran is caught in a classic crunch. Ahmadinejad's government failed to save enough of the billions in oil windfall it earned during the good years to now cushion the bad.

The same crunch afflicts Venezuela and to a lesser extent, Russia, as all three struggle with falling oil prices.

But in Iran, the economic crisis has quickly turned political. Economic woes are the key issue as Ahmadinejad — already deeply unpopular and suffering from exhaustion, he said this week — seeks re-election next summer in a tough vote. And they are shaping up as his weakness.

Critics say he has recklessly squandered Iran's oil windfall on costly, subsidized imports, from fruit and other goods to the gasoline the country must buy overseas because of a refinery shortage, while failing to take any needed reforms.

"The Iranian people got a golden opportunity in history. But it was buried under this government's wrong policies," said Mohsen Safaei Farahani, a former lawmaker and reformist economist.

Among the dire statistics made public this week: The government may have as little as $9 billion left in its hard-currency reserve, the rainy day fund set aside to bolster the currency, import goods or pay off debt, according to one official, an ally of the president, who gave that figure to newspapers.

Other officials immediately disputed that, saying Iran still had closer to $20 billion or $25 billion in the fund.

But the relatively low figures shocked the country, leading one state agency to send an investigative report to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and parliament Monday, accusing Ahmadinejad's government of financial violations. Among the accusations: His government unlawfully withdrew money from the fund.

Even if Ahmadinejad is not re-elected in June, it is unclear how much Iran's foreign policy would change. Khamenei, a hard-liner, has the final say in all state matters and strongly supports Iran's nuclear program and dislike for the United States.

But the combative tactics of Iran's current policy could alter, especially if a more tempered reformist is elected.

There is little question Iran should be swimming in money, according to an Associated Press review of Iran's economic statistics: The country has at least tripled its oil earnings in the last few years as prices spiked.

Precise government numbers are hard to come by. But Iranian economists contacted by the AP estimated the government earned more than $200 billion from oil exports in the last three years, during Ahmadinejad's tenure, or an average of $66 billion a year.

That compares with just $173 billion earned in the previous eight years, or an average of $21 billion a year.

OPEC put the value of Tehran's exports at $64.9 billion last year, up 22 percent from two years earlier and more than three times as high as 2001, when production was only modestly lower. But those figures were before prices soared to an all-time high above $145 a barrel earlier this year. Benchmark prices have since tumbled, with light, sweet crude for December delivery at $65.96 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

With that kind of cash inflow, Iran could easily have built a $100 billion hard-currency reserve, said another economist, Mohammad Bagher Nowbakht.

Oil is by far Iran's most important product — the world's fourth-largest oil exporter, the country depends on oil revenue for a whopping 80 percent of its government budget, the same economists estimated.

For Ahmadinejad, the hard currency dispute was just the tip of the bad economic news.

Tehran's stock index also plunged about 12 percent in a week, its lowest close in years. Soaring prices continue to hurt ordinary people, with inflation estimated at 27 percent or more.

Iranian economists warn publicly of a budget deficit next year if oil sells at below $60 per barrel. The International Monetary Fund is more dire, estimating Iran would need prices at $90 per barrel to stay in the black.

Ahmadinejad, under severe political pressure, named five top officials Monday to study the global financial crisis' impact even as critics called it too little, too late.

Former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, still a powerful figure, late last week publicly cautioned Ahmadinejad and the cleric who had gloated about America's crisis, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, to end their populist slogans and become more serious.

"The consequences of this crisis hit everybody," Rafsanjani said. "The first wave of the crisis are the low oil prices that have reached us. This is a big loss."

The president was already under attack from both reformers and conservatives, who brought him to power but now complain he spends too much time on fiery anti-U.S. rhetoric rather than managing the country.

Middle-class Iranians, who have seen their standard of living fall, often speak scornfully of his economic naivete. In July, he predicted oil prices would never fall below $100 per barrel.

Ahmadinejad said earlier this week that he suffers from exhaustion.

Yet he appears unbowed. In a speech Wednesday, he called the world financial crisis a U.S. creation, although he stopped short of outright calling it God's punishment.

"They say it is a global crisis. No, this crisis is your creation," he said of the United States, addressing a group in western Iran in a speech carried on state TV. "You plundered moneys and are in debt. Now you want to take money from the pocket of other nations again."

The crisis, he said, "is the result of your behavior, the result of you distancing from divine rulings, the result of trampling morality, the result of aggression and lying. The only solution is a return to morality."

Iran's economy was in some trouble before Ahmadinejad took office, but many economists blame him for making it worse.

They say Iran can only recover by ending expensive fuel subsidies and luring more foreign investment to develop oil and gas fields and build refineries.

But Ahmadinejad was elected in 2005 on a populist agenda promising to bring oil revenues to every family, eradicate poverty and tackle unemployment. In office, he handed lucrative contracts to cronies including former members of the hard-line Republican Guards, and tried to develop fields on Iran's own.

His efforts to inject liquidity into the economy to create jobs, something economists say they repeatedly warned against, led to higher inflation.

One independent economist, Mousa Ghaninejad, said Ahmadinejad encouraged spending oil revenues to subsidize imports. Iran imported more than $56 billion in goods last year, a 50 percent increase from three years ago.

The government did impose some limited fuel rationing — a wildly unpopular measure. But fuel subsidies are still high and drain the country of hard currency.

Iran also spends large amounts on its nuclear program and sends money to groups such as the militant Hezbollah in Lebanon, including an estimated $1.2 billion to Hezbollah in 2006.

With money tight, it's unclear what will give.

If Iran does see a budget deficit next year, it would need to either trim spending, print more bank notes, or borrow money. The country is thought to have $28.6 billion in foreign debt already.

That makes many Iranians nervous, especially about the state of hard-currency reserves. Mohammad Nahavandian, the head of Iran's chamber of commerce, predicts dire times. The government's plans, he said, "will run into trouble."

[Rasputin]

درخواست ایران از اوپک همزمان با افت قیمت نفت به زیر 60 دلار

آقای نوذری می گوید که اوپک ممکن است زودتر از موعد دسامبر تشکیل جلسه دهد
همزمان با افت قیمت نفت به کمترین میزان در 20 ماه گذشته، ایران از سازمان کشورهای صادرکننده نفت، اوپک، خواسته است برای تثبیت بها اقدامات بیشتری صورت دهد.

بهای نفت خام که در ماه ژوئیه به 147 دلار در بشکه صعود کرده بود در معاملات روز سه شنبه به کمتر از 60 دلار افت کرد که معادل سقوطی 59 درصدی طی چهار ماه است.

نفت خام در بازار نیویورک در پایان این روز بشکه ای 59 دلار و 33 سنت معامله شد.

روند نزولی قیمت نفت علیرغم تلاش های اخیر اوپک ادامه یافته است که ناشی از ضعف اقتصادی بسیاری کشورهای جهان و کاهش مصرف است.


به گزارش خبرگزاری رویتر غلامحسین نوذری وزیر نفت ایران روز سه شنبه گفت که توافق ماه اکتبر اوپک جهت کاهش سقف تولید تنها در جلوگیری از تنزل شدید بها موثر بود و اکنون برای تثبیت قیمت باید اقدامات بیشتری صورت گیرد.

صادرات نفت خام حدود 80 درصد درآمد دولت ایران را تشکیل می دهد که این کشور را در برابر نوسانات شدید قیمت نفت آسیب پذیر می کند.

یک مقام بانک مرکزی ایران هفته گذشته اخطار داد که اگر بهای نفت به بشکه ای زیر 60 دلار سقوط کند اقتصاد ایران "با مشکلات بزرگی روبرو خواهد شد."

احتمال کاهش مجدد تولید
آقای نوذری روز سه شنبه همچنین صادرکنندگان غیرعضو اوپک را ترغیب کرد برای تثبیت قیمت و ایجاد توازن میان عرضه و تقاضا به این سازمان کمک کنند.

وی در جریان سفری به کویت گفت: "تصمیم اوپک در جلوگیری از افت شدید بها موفق بود اما تثبیت قیمت ها نیازمند تصمیمی فراگیرتر و اقدامات بیشتر است."

تصمیم اوپک در جلوگیری از افت شدید بها موفق بود اما تثبیت قیمت ها نیازمند تصمیمی فراگیرتر و اقدامات بیشتر است
وزیر نفت ایران
وزیر نفت ایران تاکید کرد که در صورت ادامه اوضاع جاری، اوپک ممکن است پیش از ماه دسامبر که موعد مقرر نشست بعدی سازمان است، ملاقات کند.

اوپک در روز 24 اکتبر طی نشستی اضطراری میزان تولید را یک میلیون و 500 هزار بشکه در روز یعنی در حدود 5 درصد کاهش داد که سهم ایران - دومین تولیدکننده بزرگ اوپک - از آن 199 هزار بشکه در روز بود. البته برخی ناظران می گویند که اوپک هنوز به طور کامل این تصمیم را اجرا نکرده است.

محمد علی خطیبی نماینده ایران در اوپک روز یکشنبه به رویتر گفته بود که این سازمان در صورت ادامه روند فعلی، در جلسه روز 17 دسامبر بار دیگر سقف تولید را پایین خواهد آورد.

آقای نوذری روز دوشنبه گفته بود که روسیه اعلام آمادگی کرده است برای تثبیت بازارها با اوپک همکاری کند. ایگور سچین معاون نخست وزیر روسیه هفته گذشته اظهار داشت کشورش با اوپک کار خواهد کرد اما سیاست های مستقل خود در زمینه میزان تولید را رها نخواهد کرد.

به گزارش رویتر کشورهای مصرف کننده نفت نگران همکاری روسیه - از بزرگترین تولیدکنندگان انرژی در جهان - با اوپک هستند چرا که می ترسند هدف این همکاری اعمال کنترل بر بازارها باشد.