Entekhabat Majles

[Rasputin]

اتحادیه اروپا: انتخابات ایران آزاد و منصفانه نبود


اتحادیه اروپا می گوید انتخابات ایران، پایین تر از سطح استانداردهای بین المللی بوده است
اتحادیه اروپا از نحوه برگزاری انتخابات پارلمانی ایران ابراز نگرانی کرده است.
این اتحادیه می گوید روند رایگیری انتخابات ایران، پایین تر از سطح استانداردهای بین المللی بوده است.

این نگرانی درحالی ابراز می شود که کار شمارش آرای انتخابات روز جمعه ایران، همچنان ادامه دارد.

بر اساس نتایج اعلام شده، متحدان محمود احمدی نژاد رئیس جمهور تندرو ایران، همچنان کنترل مجلس را در اختیار خواهند داشت.

ستاد انتخابات ایران می گوید شصت درصد واجدان شرایط رای دهی، در انتخابات شرکت کرده اند.

'نه آزاد، نه منصفانه'

اتحادیه اروپا می گوید از اینکه حدود یک سوم نامزدهای انتخابات دوره هشتم مجلس قانونگذاری ایران، رد صلاحیت شده و نتوانستند در این انتخابات شرکت کنند، عمیقاً متاسف است.

این اتحادیه می گوید رد صلاحیت شمار زیادی از نامزدها، مانع از آن شد تا مردم بتوانند آزادانه، از میان نمایندگان طیف ها و گروه های سیاسی مختلف، به انتخاب نامزد مورد نظر خود بپردازند.

بر این اساس، اتحادیه اروپا ابرازعقیده کرده که انتخابات اخیر ایران، نه آزاد و منصفانه بود.

وزارت کشور ایران اعلام کرده است که بیش از هفتاد درصد نمایندگان راه یافته به دور هشتم مجلس شورای اسلامی، از جناح متحد رئیس جمهور هستند.

با این وجود، به نظر می رسد جناح منتقد دولت نیز، حضور نسبتاً نیرومندی در این انتخابات داشته که می تواند کنترل قطعی متحدان رئیس جمهور بر مجلس را، به چالش بکشد.

ستاد انتخابات ایران می گوید ۳۳ درصد نمایندگان انتخاب شده، اعضای کنونی مجلس شورای اسلامی هستند.

در میان نمایندگان راه یافته به مجلس هشتم، علی لاریجانی رئیس پیشین شورای عالی امنیت ملی ایران نیز دیده می شود.

گروه های اصلاح طلب ادعا می کنند که با وجود رد صلاحیت های گسترده نامزدهای* آنها از سوی شورای نگهبان، به موفقیت نسبی در انتخابات اخیر دست یافته اند.

[Rasputin]

Hard-liners dominate Iran polls

The results could increase the power of Ayatollah Khamenei (L)
Hard-line allies of Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad are set to retain control of parliament, partial election results suggest.
But conservative critics of Mr Ahmadinejad also appear to be making a strong showing that could undermine his domination of the parliament.

Reformists also hailed successes, despite the barring of large numbers of their candidates from the race.

The EU has criticised the conduct of the vote as "neither fair nor free".

The BBC's John Leyne says that if the results cause problems for President Ahmadinejad, it will strengthen Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

That is likely to make Iran's stance on its nuclear programme even tougher, our correspondent says.

The Associated Press (AP) news agency reports that 190 out of 290 parliamentary seats have been decided so far.

Quoting state television and official news agency IRNA, AP says pro-Ahmadinejad politicians have won 67 seats, reformists 30, and conservative critics of Mr Ahmadinejad 46.

Independents whose political leanings were not immediately known claimed 42, the agency says, while the remaining five seats are designated for Iran's Jewish, Zoroastrian and Christian minorities.

IRANIAN POLL
Eighth parliamentary election since 1979 revolution
43 million eligible voters
290 seats from 30 provinces
About 40% of those who applied to stand disqualified by the Guardian Council


Analysis: Election foretold
Iran in facts and figures
In pictures: Iran votes
Races for some 50 seats were due to go to a run-off vote, it reported.

One minister estimated that conservatives would win more than 70% of the seats.

A spokesman for the main reformist bloc, Abdollah Nasseri, said its candidates - including sympathetic independents - had won 34 seats outside Tehran, and were leading in 15 of the races going to a run-off.

The results from the 30 races in Tehran - where more reformist candidates were allowed to stand - are expected on Sunday or Monday.

If Mr Nasseri's predictions are correct, and if reformists do well in Tehran, they may increase the 40 seats they currently hold in the parliament.

Correspondents say that the reasonably strong showing among Mr Ahmadinejad's critics - both reformists and conservative - means that the president could be given a rougher ride as he prepares to run for re-election in a year's time.

Real winners

The Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi said around 60% of voters turned out, up from 51 percent in 2004 election

But the BBC's John Leyne says that many observers will be sceptical as polling stations in the capital were not busy.


It is Iran's eighth parliamentary poll since its 1979 Islamic revolution
Many people said they felt there was nothing or no-one to vote for, he says.

The Iranian authorities had called for a big turnout to defy the US and other countries who they call Iran's enemies.

Reformists said the election was unfair, but still urged Iran's 44 million eligible voters to turn out for the country's eighth parliamentary elections since its 1979 Islamic revolution. Many reformist candidates were disqualified on the grounds of alleged lack of loyalty to Islamic values, says our correspondent.

They made up the bulk of about 1,700 candidates barred from running by Iran's Guardian Council - an unelected body of clerics and jurists that vets election candidates.

The Guardian Council has denied bias.

The election will shape the political map ahead of 2009's presidential poll.

Some analysts expected the poll's real winners to be former members of the hard-line Revolutionary Guards, who could replace the Muslim clergy as the biggest force in the assembly.

[Rasputin]

اعلام پیروزی اصولگرایان در انتخابات



وزارت کشور ایران در حال انتشار تدریجی نتایج شمارش آرایی است که دیروز در انتخابات هشتمین دوره مجلس شورای اسلامی به صندوق ریخته شد.
مصطفی پورمحمدی، وزیر کشور ایران اعلام کرده که تاکنون ۷۱درصد نامزدهایی که پیروزی شان در انتخابات مشخص شده، منتسب به اصولگرایانند.

ستاد جبهه متحد اصولگرایان نیز پیشتر اعلام کرده بود که هفتاد درصد نامزدهایی که در انتخابات به پیروزی دست یافته اند به جریان سیاسی اصولگرا تعلق دارند و 65 درصد نامزدهای پیروز، افرادی اند که در انتخابات مورد حمایت جبهه متحد اصولگرایان قرار داشته اند.

جبهه متحد اصولگرایان، تشکل انتخاباتی جناح هوادار دولت محمود احمدی نژاد در جریان اصولگرا به شمار می رود.

از سوی دیگر، ستاد ائتلاف اصلاح طلبان اعلام کرده که از ۱۰۲ کرسی مجلس که نامزدهای اصلاح طلبان بر سر به دست آوردن آنها به رقابت پرداخته بودند، ۳۴ کرسی به طور قطعی به اصلاح طلبان اختصاص یافته و پانزده نامزد مورد حمایت ائتلاف اصلاح طلبان نیز به مرحله دوم انتخابات راه یافته اند.


این ستاد اعلام کرده که با توجه به ترکیب نامزدهای راه یافته به مرحله دوم در این حوزه ها، پیروزی نامزدهای اصلاح طلب از هم اکنون قطعی است.

در صورتی که نامزدهای انتخاباتی نتوانند بیش از یک چهارم آرائی را که به صندوق ریخته شده به خود اختصاص دهند، تعیین تکلیف انتخابات به دور دوم کشیده می شود که در آن، از میان همه نامزدها تنها به تعداد دو برابر کرسیهایی که برنده نداشته اند، به رقابت می پردازند و ملاک پیروزی در انتخابات، کسب آرای بیشتر از نامزد رقیب است.

دور دوم انتخابات قرار است در اردیبهشت سال آینده خورشیدی برگزار شود.

ائتلاف اصلاح طلبان و حزب اعتمادملی که دو تشکل اصلاح طلب در انتخابات بودند، به دلیل ردصلاحیت گسترده نامزدهای مورد حمایتشان، اعلام کردند که امکان رقابت بر سر همه کرسیهای مجلس را ندارند و تنها در حوزه های انتخابیه ای که رقابت را ممکن می بینند وارد کارزار انتخاباتی می شوند.

ستاد انتخابات اعلام کرده که تا پایان امشب نتیجه شمارش آرا در تمام حوزه های انتخابیه، بجز تهران اعلام می شود.

بر خلاف دوره های پیش که در تهران و شهرستانها، نتیجه انتخابات به صورت تدریجی اعلام می شد، این بار وزارت کشور تصمیم گرفته است که تنها نتیجه قطعی و نهائی شمارش آرا را اعلام کند، این تصمیم انتقاد شدید برخی گروههای سیاسی از جمله اصلاح طلبان را به همراه داشته است.

برخی گروههای سیاسی از جمله اصلاح طلبان از روند برگزاری انتخابات انتقاد کرده و از تخلفهایی در روز انتخابات خبر داده اند.

وزیرکشور ایران اعلام کرده که بیش از شصت درصد واجدان شرایط رأی دادن، در انتخابات شرکت کرده اند، این در حالی است که در دور پیشین انتخابات مجلس، 51 و دودهم درصد از واجدان شرایط رأی خود را به صندوق انداختند.

با وجود اینکه رهبر و مقامات بلندپایه سیاسی و مذهبی ایران، مردم را به حضور گسترده در انتخابات فراخوانده بودند، وزیرکشور ایران اذعان کرده که میزان شرکت مردم در انتخابات بیش از حد انتظار او بوده و پیش بینی می کرده که به دلیل همزمان شدن انتخابات با روزهای پایانی سال که مردم بیشتر به مشغولیتهای مربوط به عید نوروز سرگرم بودند و همچنین محدودیتهای قانونی تازه برای تبلیغات نامزدهای انتخاباتی، مشارکت مردم در انتخابات چندان گسترده نباشد.

پاره ای از آگاهان هم اعتقاد داشتند که به دلیل ردصلاحیت گسترده اصلاح طلبان که امکان رقابت آنان در انتخابات را به میزان زیادی کاهش داد، بخش عمده ای از هواداران جریان سیاسی اصلاح طلب، پای صندوقهای رأی حاضر نشوند و بدین ترتیب، آمار شرکت کنندگان در انتخابات چندان چشمگیر نباشد.

مشارکت گسترده مردم در انتخابات بیشتر مربوط به شهرستانها بوده، فرماندار تهران، میزان مشارکت مردم در این حوزه انتخابیه را حدود چهل درصد اعلام کرده است.

در تهران، خط مشی سیاسی و موضعگیری جناحی نامزدها نقش اصلی را در جهت دادن آرای مردم بسوی آنان دارد، در حالی که در شهرستانها عوامل اجتماعی، گرایشهای قومی و طایفه ای و شعارها و وعده های غیرسیاسی نامزدها در تصمیم گیری انتخاباتی مردم مؤثرترند.

[Rasputin]

Conservatives claimed a clear victory in Iran's parliamentary election on Sunday, but the new legislature may still give President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a tougher time ahead of next year's presidential poll.

The hardline president's reformist opponents tried to capitalize on public discontent over high inflation in the world's fourth-largest oil producer but many of their leading candidates were barred from running in Friday's vote.

Conservatives, who call themselves "principlists" for loyalty to the Islamic Republic's ideals, have taken 120 seats in the 290-member assembly against 46 for reformists so far, the state Press TV station has reported.

That figure did not include Tehran, where conservatives were also leading, according to official media.

"More than 70 percent of parliament seats belong to principlists," Shahabeddin Sadr, projected to win a seat for the conservatives in the capital, told Reuters. "It is a great honor that people put their trust in us again."

The Interior Ministry, which supervised the vote, has said a final nationwide tally might not come out until Monday.

But even if the conservatives' victory is confirmed, analysts said divisions among politicians ranging from radical backers of Ahmadinejad to his more pragmatic critics could widen as they jockey for position before the 2009 presidential race.

Reformists, who seek political and social change, and some conservatives have accused him of stoking inflation, now at 19 percent, by lavishly spending Iran's windfall oil revenues on subsidies, loans and handouts.

[Rasputin]

Voting for the Majlis was a pointless exercise and by participating one has cast a vote for this farce, this hoax, this kolah bardaari.

The act of voting means that one's vote could contribute to change. The fact that whichever way Iranians vote will have no effect on the situation in Iran means there is no point in voting.

There is no such thing as democracy in Iran as the form of political Islam practiced in Iran is inherently a totalitarian belief structure created to control a society through superstition, violence, and brainwashing.

Thirty years ago the Iranian people were fooled into believing that the mullahs had the answers and could bring about a utopia, and the mullahs thought they could deliver this utopia. The truth is that the Iranian people were wrong and so were the mullahs.

Thirty years later we all now know that the vote for an Islamic Republic of Iran was wishful thinking and it is time once again for another referendum.

Over these past thirty years the Iranian people have discovered these truths:

* One: Even those in high religious authority lie and steal, and they do not have any special relationship with Allah.

* Two: Mullahs can get drunk on power and behave like ruthless dictators.

* Three: Given the blinkered world view that mullahs have they are not qualified to lead a nation into the modern age.

* Four: The application of Islamic laws that were developed 1,400 years ago can not be applied to modern conditions.

* Five: If Iran is to advance and the Iranian people are to have a higher standard of living there has to be Islamic reformation.

* Six: Just because an individual has religious knowledge does not automatically make them a superior person or grant them special privileges.

* Seven: Given the horrendous level of incompetence at all levels of this regime a state of anarchy now exists in Iran where university graduates see no future for them in this society, businessmen do not abide by a signed contract, and grabbing as much money as possible through any means possible is the first priority for all Iranians.

A silent majority exists in Iran and beneath that silence lies a deep hatred for this regime, but alongside this hatred there is fear, and that fear is that if that hatred was ever to find a voice it would ignite another upheaval and instead of positive change the oppression would instead increase. And it is that fear that keeps in check the hatred. It is that fear that keeps this regime in existence.

The day that Iranians know exactly what kind of country they want to live in will be the day that this regime will disappear. If we do not know where we are going we will never get there.

Iranians need to decide for themselves if they are willing to continue living in a mullah created hell when in fact it is within their own power to live in heaven or hell. Heaven and hell are not where we go when we die but they are right here, now.

Don’t be fooled by the many tricks that the mullahs play. Learn to think for yourself. Discover for yourself. Decide for yourself. And when you do you will be ready to create the Iran that you want and not the Iran that is imposed on you

(The term “mullah” is used to refer to those that are failures on the spiritual path but have a head full of memorized verses but no understanding of what they have memorized and are opportunists seeking personal power and wealth. The essential feature of a mullahs is the presumption that they are spiritually superior to everybody else.)�

[Rasputin]

On April 25, a second round of voting will determine the remaining eighty-eight seats of the Iranian Majlis. The first round, held on March 14, decided 202 seats and was considered a defeat for both the reformists and President Mahmoud Ahmadinezhad. His reaction to the setback -- the dismissal of Interior Minister Mustafa Pur-Muhammadi, responsible for conducting the election -- is indicative of the difficult times ahead for the president and his allies, whose public and official support is steadily diminishing.

Poor Showing for Ahmadinezhad's Supporters
The political group that represents Ahmadinezhad's faction is dubbed the "Scent of Service" (Boo-ye Khosh-e Khedmat). In December 2006, this group circulated separate lists of candidates for both the Assembly of Experts and municipal elections. In both instances, the group's candidates attracted relatively few voters, showing the decline of Ahmadinezhad's popularity since his June 2005 election. For the latest parliamentary elections, the president decided against creating a separate list and instead tried to compromise with other conservative groups and create a common front. This policy has helped him conceal the reality of his unpopularity, preventing observers from determining to what extent he is personally able to mobilize supporters.

Indeed, determining an accurate number of Ahmadinezhad's supporters in the new Majlis is a matter of interpretation, given that he and his conservative opponents endorsed many of the same candidates. One respected news service, Mehr News, estimated that the conservatives allied with Ahmadinezhad and some other conservatives captured eighty-eight seats (44 percent of the first round total), while his conservative opponents seventy-five, reformists twenty-three, and independents forty-seven. Tabnak, a website run by anti-Ahmadinezhad conservatives, had slightly different numbers: sixty-six seats for Ahmadinezhad supporters, sixty-three for conservatives opposed to him, thirty-six who were endorsed by both, and thirty-four reformists. It is hard to understand how both sources arrived at these totals since neither adds up to 202. But in general, it would be difficult to claim that Ahmadinezhad's supporters won a majority.

The most noteworthy confrontation of this election has been between Ahmadinezhad and the conservative critics who deeply detest him. These newly elected conservatives include Ali Larijani (the former secretary of the Supreme Council of National Security whom Ahmadinezhad dismissed over nuclear policy differences) and Ahmad Tavakkoli (head of the Center for Majlis Research and an outspoken critic of the president's economic agenda). Even the tension between Ahmadinezhad and Majlis speaker Gholam Ali Haddad-Adel has intensified over the past year. Haddad-Adel criticized Ahmadinezhad for ignoring the parliament's adopted bills; in return, Ahmadinezhad accused Haddad of seeking any pretext to pressure his government.

Apart from these individual clashes, criticism of the president's economic agenda was a fixed theme of most candidates' campaigns, reflecting popular discontent. Even Ahmadinezhad joined in to criticize the government's economic policy. In an inflammatory speech in Qom on April 16, he accused his administration of ignoring his policy to fight corruption and monopolies. His critique extended even to his own appointees, including Finance Minister Davood Danish Jafari, the central bank governor, and the heads of other economic organizations. Ahmadinezhad's decision to dismiss both Jafari and Interior Minister Pur-Muhammadi provoked protests from dozens of parliamentarians as well as the editor-in-chief of Kayhan newspaper, appointed by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

To make matters worse, Iran's economic situation is likely to worsen. In February, annual inflation was officially reported at 22.5 percent and is rising each month (unofficial numbers are much higher), while gasoline demand was higher than before rationing was introduced last year. Shortages of natural gas -- widely used for heat in the colder northern climates -- have also been reported across the country.

The Next Majlis
The upcoming second round of voting will not change the parliament's makeup drastically. In the first round, the reformists, who have a small minority, only won seats in the provinces -- in Tehran, every one of the nineteen reformist candidates lost, and none were able to get more than 25 percent of the vote. Yet, although the reformists are not a substantial threat on their own, they could unite with Ahmadinezhad's conservative critics and, together, attract enough support from independents to defeat his supporters.

Although conservatives will hold most of the seats, this is no comfort for the president. It seems that his firm supporters may number fewer than fifty members -- only a fraction of those in the shared conservative list he endorsed. And as time goes on, the political price for remaining in the president's faction increases. For instance, on his last visit to Qom, not one religious authority (marja) agreed to meet with the president. Indeed, clerical criticism of Ahmadinezhad is becoming more common, and harsher. On April 17, Ayatollah Muhammad Reza Mahdavi Kani, head of the Association of Militant Clerics of Tehran and a leading conservative figure, publicly criticized the economic situation and stated, "I told Mr. Ahmadinezhad to not regard us as a tool. We were militant before and after revolution, and we will fight corruption and everything else that is not in the interest of our religion and country." In other words, some leading conservatives explained Ahmadinezhad uses clerics when he needs them but ignores them the rest the time.

The Majlis conservatives opposed to Ahmadinezhad will cause his government a number of problems, from refusing to vote for proposals or suggested ministerial candidates to criticizing his budget. For one thing, Majlis members are likely to exploit the president's failed economic policies to make themselves more popular -- particularly the raging inflation figures and the worldwide price increase of basic commodities such as wheat. Moreover, as the May 2009 presidential election approaches, the competition between different conservative factions will be reinforced. And since Ahmadinezhad's rivals in the last presidential election are now leading figures in the Majlis, criticism of him is likely to escalate.

In addition to these problems, the Majlis approval for new ministers will complicate the president's calculations if he continues his policy of removing ministers to cover or justify his government's failures. Although this policy may deflect popular criticism, it leaves him open to difficulties with the Supreme Leader. For instance, Pur-Muhammadi was very close to Khamanei and was appointed as interior minister on his recommendation. By dismissing him and others close to Khamenei (such as Ali Larijani), Ahmadinezhad risks losing the most important force supporting his presidency. Given all of these factors, the last year of Ahmadinezhad's presidential term could be tumultuous.

[Dokhtar Bandari]

boycot