M Ahmadinejad

[Rasputin]

MADRID (Reuters) - Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad believes neither Israel nor the United States would dare attack the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program, a Spanish newspaper quoted him on Wednesday as saying.

The Iranian president was responding to a question about an article in Britain's Sunday Times on January 7 that said Israel had secret plans to destroy Iran's uranium enrichment facilities with tactical nuclear weapons.

"They well know the power of the Iranian people. I don't think they would ever dare to attack us, neither them nor their masters. They won't do such a stupid thing," Ahmadinejad told El Mundo during a visit to Nicaragua, referring to Israel.

Conservative Iranian leaders, such as Ahmadinejad, see Israel as a stooge of the United States in the Middle East.

Iran does not recognize Israel and Ahmadinejad has previously called for it to be "wiped off the map."

"That regime wants to hurt the Iranian people. They have many dreams but they are not all powerful," said the Iranian leader.

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, echoed the president's comments in Tehran when asked about the possibility of an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.

"We have considered all the options and don't take these things that they say too seriously. They have enough brains not to carry out such mindless acts," Larijani was quoted as saying by Iran's official IRNA news agency on Wednesday.

Israel has refused to rule out pre-emptive military action against Iran on the lines of its 1981 air strike against an atomic reactor in Iraq, although many analysts believe Iran's nuclear facilities are too much for Israel to destroy alone.

Asked about whether he wants to see Israel destroyed, Ahmadinejad avoided a direct answer, but seemed to refer to an earlier statement in which had said that Israel would be wiped out "just as the Soviet Union was wiped out."

"Where is the Soviet Union?" he told El Mundo, "It has disappeared."

The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously last month to impose sanctions on Iran to try to stop its uranium enrichment program, which Tehran insists is peaceful.

The United States, which suspects Iran hopes to develop nuclear weapons, says it wants a diplomatic solution to the deadlock but military force remains an option.

Israel has said it will not allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons.

[Rasputin]

TEHRAN, Iran - Prices for vegetables have tripled in the past month, housing prices have doubled since last summer — and as costs have gone up, so has Iranians' discontent with hard-line President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his focus on confrontation with the West.

Ahmadinejad was elected last year on a populist agenda promising to bring oil revenues to every family, eradicate poverty and tackle unemployment. Now he is facing increasingly fierce criticism for his failure to meet those promises.

He is being challenged not only by reformers but by the conservatives who paved the way for his stunning victory in 2005 presidential elections. Even conservatives say Ahmadinejad has concentrated too much on fiery, anti-U.S. speeches and not enough on the economy — and they have become more aggressive in calling him to account.

"The government has painted idealistic goals like tackling housing problems and unemployment ... but no solution has been offered," said Mohammad Khoshchehreh, a prominent conservative lawmaker, told The Associated Press.

Ahmadinejad's government "has been strong on populist slogans but weak on achievement," said Khoshchehreh, who campaigned for Ahmadinejad during the election.

The president has touted himself as a tough anti-Western leader, frequently denouncing the United States. His comments that Israel should be "wiped off the map" and his questioning of the Nazi Holocaust have sparked anger in the West and increased Iran's isolation.

At the same time, he has aggressively pushed ahead Iran's nuclear program, shrugging off U.N. demands that the country halt uranium enrichment. As a result, the U.N. in December imposed sanctions on Iran.

The sanctions were limited to a ban on selling materials and technology that could be used in Iran's nuclear and missile programs and the freezing of assets of 10 Iranian companies and individuals.

But since then the price of fruit, vegetables and other widely used commodities in Iran — already rising — have skyrocketed, apparently because of fears of harsher punishment.

The inflation has hit Iranians hard, along with unemployment, which the government puts at 10 percent but which economists say could be as high as 30 percent. The government also says inflation is 11 percent, but experts estimate it at 30 percent.

Tehran housewife Maryam Hatamkhani, 28, said her family has given up buying potatoes and tomatoes because prices have tripled or quadrupled in the past month. Tomatoes have gone from around 33 cents a pound to $1.50.

"People are really under pressure. We are unhappy. Instead of bringing welfare, this government has given us hardship," she said.

Vahid Yousefi, a factory worker, moonlights as an informal cab driver at night to get by, picking up passengers in his car. He had hoped to buy a modest apartment in downtown Tehran last year but couldn't afford it. In the six months since, home prices have doubled.

"I really can't make ends meet," said Yousefi, the father of two. "I will never be able to live in my own house."

Lawmakers summoned Ahmadinejad's Housing Minister Mohammad Saeedikia to parliament for questioning over the rising prices, which he blamed on increasing demand. He promised a plan to control prices, but gave no specifics.

Demand for housing has swelled because of a population bulge in Iran. After the 1979 Islamic revolution, hard-line clerics encouraged Iranians to have more children, causing a high birth rate in the 1980s and prompting them to reverse the policy in the 1990s.

Ahmadinejad — who has revived much of the revolution's rhetoric — raised a public outcry last year when he said two children per family was not enough and urged Iranians to have more. Despite the criticism, he has stuck by the calls, saying last week that Iran, a nation of 70 million, has the capacity to feed 300 million.

The president "keeps making empty promises to people in every city he goes. This is causing unhappiness," said Ghaffar Esmaili, another conservative lawmaker.

In a sign of the growing discontent, the president's allies suffered a humiliating defeat in December local elections, carried by reformists and anti-Ahmadinejad conservatives.

Since then, Ahmadinejad's critics have become bolder, denouncing his nuclear policies, long seen as above criticism and an issue of national pride. They accuse him of unnecessarily escalating the nuclear standoff with his harsh rhetoric.

Reformist and conservative lawmakers are considering calling Ahmadinejad before parliament to answer questions about his nuclear diplomacy and economic policies. So far no date has been set for summoning him.

Some 150 lawmakers signed a letter last week calling on Ahmadinejad's government to reconsider its draft budget for next year. Lawmakers called the draft too dependent on oil revenues. Iran roughly makes about 80 percent of its revenues from oil exports.

Even the president's globe-trotting has come under fire. He has made several trips to Asia and Africa, burnishing his reputation as a world leader who can stand up to the United States. This week, he was in Latin America, meeting presidents Hugo Chavez of Venezuela and Daniel Ortega of Nicaragua and other anti-U.S. figures.

"Do you really assume people like Chavez (and) Ortega ... can be Iran's strategic allies?" the reformist daily Etemad-e-Melli said in an editorial Tuesday addressing Ahmadinejad. "We should not build a house on water."

[Rasputin]

هفته نامه بريتانيايی اکونوميست در شماره 20 ژانويه خود، آنچه را که تضعيف محمود احمدی نژاد در داخل ايران می داند مورد بررسی قرار داده است.
در مقاله اکونوميست با عنوان "رييس جمهوری در معرض تهاجم داخلی - آيا ستاره بخت رييس جمهوری جنجالی رو به افول است" آمده که احتمالا کاسه صبر رده های بالاتر حکومت جمهوری اسلامی از دست محمود احمدی نژاد لبريز می شود هرچند منابع مطلع ايرانی تصور نمی کنند که وی با خطر از دست دادن مقام خود مواجه شود ولو اينکه موقعيت وی در اين سمت به مانند گذشته محکم نباشد.

اکونوميست می نويسد که محافظه کاران در پارلمان و رسانه های ايران ولخرجی رييس جمهوری در داخل و گزافه گويی وی در خارج را مسئول وخامت شرايط اقتصادی و قرار گرفتن هرچه بيشتر اين کشور در خط آتش آمريکا می دانند.

هفته نامه بريتانيايی يادآور می شود که در هفته های اخير، ايالات متحده دو بار شهروندان ايرانی را در عراق بازداشت کرده، يک ناو هواپيمابر ديگر به خليج فارس فرستاده و کشورهای عرب همسايه ايران را به موشک های ضد موشک پاتريوت مجهز کرده و اين اقدامات با رگبار حملات لفظی مقامات ارشد آمريکايي، ازجمله رييس جمهوری و وزيران خارجه و دفاع آن کشور، عليه ايران همراه بوده است.

اکونوميست اظهار می دارد که منتقدان آقای احمدی نژاد پس از شکست متحدان وی در انتخابات شوراها باد به غبعب انداخته و او را مسئول فشارهای جديد آمريکاييان و همچنين تصويب قطعنامه شورای امنيت عليه ايران می دانند و به نظر می رسد که گروهی از مقامات ارشد رژيم و احتمالا آيت الله خامنه ای نيز چنين انتقاداتی را تاييد کرده اند.

اکونوميست می نويسد که روزنامه همشهری در مقاله ای نوشت هنگامی که انتظار می رفت موضوع هسته ای ايران از حيطه بررسی شورای امنيت دور شود، سخنان آتشين رييس جمهوری باعث تصويب دو قطعنامه عليه جمهوری اسلامی شد.

هفته نامه بريتانيايی می نويسد که چنين اظهاراتی با اوضاع در سال گذشته تفاوت دارد، زمانی که به چالش خواندن سياست هسته ای دولت اقدامی عاقلانه محسوب نمی شد.

در ادامه مقاله اکونوميست آمده است که لفاظی های تند آقای احمدی نژاد عليه آمريکا با توجه به ديدار اخير وی از آمريکای لاتين مورد حمله گرفته است زيرا اين سفر از نظر منتقدان رييس جمهوری اقدامی غير ضروری در زمانی نا مناسب بوده است.

سفر بی موقع

اکونوميست به مقاله روزنامه اعتماد ملی در اين زمينه اشاره می کند که نوشته است رييسان جمهوری کشورهای ونزوئلا، اکوادور و نيکاراگوئه که رييس جمهوری ايران را در آغوش گرفتند دوستان چپگرايی هستند که برای گپ زدن در قهوه خانه مناسبت اند اما برای تدوين اولويت های امنيتي، سياسی و اقتصادی کشور فايده ای ندارند.

اکونوميست يادآور می شود که آقای احمدی نژاد در خلال سفر اخير به آمريکای لاتين اعلام کرد يک ميليارد دلار در اختيار صندوق مشترک ايران و ونزوئلا برای کمک به کشورهای ديگر به منظور "رهايی از يوغ امپرياليسم آمريکا" قرار می دهد و اين تصميم باعث تشديد انتقادهای جدی از سياست اقتصادی دولت شده است.

هفته نامه بريتانيايی با اشاره به نامه اخير يکصد و پنجاه تن از نمايندگان مجلس در مورد نحوه تقديم لايحه بودجه سالانه می نويسد که امضا کنندگان از رييس جمهوری خواسته اند تا از دستاوردهای اقتصادی خود در برابر مجلس دفاع کند.

اکونوميست در عين حال می نويسد که اين نخستين درگيری مجلس با رييس جمهوری نيست و در اواخر سال 2005 نيز نمايندگان محافظه کار مجلس، که ظاهرا همفکر آقای احمدی نژاد هستند، نامزدهای پيشنهادی برای تصدی سمت وزارت نفت را نپذيرفتند و از آن زمان به بعد نيز بارها سئولاتی را درباره شيوه "من درآوردی" اقتصادی دولت مطرح کرده اند، سياست هايی که توده ها را خرسند و اکثر اقتصاددانان را ناراضی می کند.

اين هفته نامه می افزايد که سال گذشته و هنگامی که تصميم ناگهانی برای افزايش حداقل دستمزد به بيکارشدن کارگران و اعتصاب در سرتاسر کشور منجر گرديد، دولت ناگزير به عقبگرد و کنار گاشتن اين سياست شد.

اکونوميست می نويسد که رييس جمهوری در سفرهای خود به استان های مختلف عادت دارد مبالغی از صندوق دولت را برای حمايت از برنامه های محلی خاص خرج کند و مجلس به دليل واگذاری قراردادهای کلان به سپاه پاسداران بدون اعلام مناقصه، دولت را به تبعيض متهم کرده است.

اين هفته نامه اظهار می دارد که رشد هزينه های مصرفی و گاه فکر نشده دولت باعث افزايش نرخ تورم شده و اقتصاد ايران را در برابر نوسانات قيمت نفت آسيب پذيرتر ساخته است و نمايندگان مجلس نگران آن هستند که در انتخابات بعدي، مسئول اوضاع نابسامان اقتصادی شناخته شوند.

اکونوميست می نويسد که ظاهرا رييس جمهوری از ايجاد جنجال جان می گيرد اما ممکن است ماه های دشواری را در پيش داشته باشد و می افزايد که شايد به نفع آقای احمدی نژاد باشد که با توجه به نظرات رهبر جمهوری اسلامي، از شدت لفاظی های خود بکاهد و به جای آن بودجه ای معقول را به مجلس ببرد هرچند وی به اتخاذ چنين شيوه ای عادت ندارد.

[Rasputin]

جزئيات لايحه بودجه

خبرگزاری فارس در مورد برخی جزئيات بودجه سال 1386 ايران گزارشی ارايه کرده که بر مبنای آن درآمدهای نفتی بر مبنای قيمت پايه هر بشکه حدود سی و پنج دلار محاسبه شده و در آن ذکر شده که بودجه های جاری و عمرانی در مقايسه با سال 1385 به ترتيب 7/1 و 7/2 درصد رشد داشته است.

بنا به همين گزارش که منبع آن آخرين مصوبه هيئت دولت ايران ذکر شده، مقدار منابعی از صادرات نفت خام كه دولت حق برداشت و تبديل آن به ريال را داشته داشته، از 4/14 ميليارد دلار در سال جاری به رقم 1/15 ميليارد دلار برای سال آينده خورشيدی افزايش يافته است.

بنا به گزارش ها، امسال تقديم بودجه به مجلس از سوی دولت ايران، نسبت به روال سال های گذشته در اين کشور، با تاخير مواجه بوده و اعتراض برخی نمايندگان را در پی داشته است.

بر اساس آئين نامه داخلی مجلس ايران، نمايندگان ده روز فرصت دارند پيشنهادهای خود را در مورد بودجه به كميسيون های تخصصی ارايه کنند و اين كميسيونها نيز موظفند حداكثر ظرف ده روز پس از پايان مهلت دريافت پيشنهاد نمايندگان، به كميسيون اصلی گزارش بدهند.

كميسيون اصلی بررسى بودجه بايد حداكثر ظرف پانزده روز با رسيدگی به گزارش كميسيون های تخصصي، گزارش نهايی خود را تنظيم و به مجلس تقديم كند

[Rasputin]

Senior Iranian dissident cleric, Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri, has attacked President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over nuclear issues and the economy.

The bold remarks came in a written statement by the 85-year-old, who was once in line to succeed Ruhollah Khomeini as supreme leader.

He spent years under house arrest after falling out with Ayatollah Khomeini.

He said nuclear energy was Iran's right, but questioned the way President Ahmadinejad had pursued it.

Using harsh and provocative language would provoke the enemy, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri said. Instead there should be negotiations.

Scathing attack

The grand ayatollah complained that people kept on shouting slogans about nuclear rights, but he asked: "Don't we have other rights too?"

It was a pointed reference to concerns about diminishing freedom of speech in Iran under Mr Ahmadinejad.

Grand Ayatollah Montazeri also launched a scathing attack on the president's handling of the economy.

He said some gentlemen claimed inflation was only 13% in Iran, but everyone knew the cost of housing had risen more than 50%.

He asked why the government went on useless trips and spent money on others abroad, seemingly a reference to President Ahmadinejad's recent tour of Latin America and Iranian aid to Palestinian groups like Hamas.

[Rasputin]

[abadani69]

[Rasputin]

راه حل سوم
برای پايان بخشيدن به عمر
رياست جمهوری احمدی نژاد




سرانجام طرح برگزاری همزمان انتخابات رياست جمهوری دوره دهم و انتخابات مجلس دوره هشتم بصورت يکجا تصويب شد و بدين ترتيب، آن گمانه زنی ها پيرامون کوتاه کردن عمر رياست جمهوری احمدی نژاد و يا بلند کردن عمر مجلس هفتم رفت برای تحقق.

با توجه به موقعيت متزلزل احمدی نژاد و شايعاتی که پيرامون حذف احمدجنتی از صحنه سياسی ايران و از راس شورای نگهبان بر سر زبان هاست می توان پيش بينی کرد که آنکه آفتاب عمر سياسی اش خيلی زود به لب بام رسيده احمدی نژاد است که با حمايت احمدجنتی و حزب پادگانی او در شورای نگهبان به رياست جمهوری رسيد. حتی شايع است که احمدجنتی دراين مورد علی خامنه ای رهبر جمهوری اسلامی را نيز در برابر عملی انجام شده قرار داد و به اين بهانه که "اگر دير بجنبيم کروبی رئيس جمهور می شود" گام اول را برداشت و در گام دوم هاشمی را کنار زد و احمدی نژاد را جلو کشيد. به همين دليل تصويب طرح باصطلاح تجميع دو انتخابات رياست جمهوری دهم و مجلس هشتم از سوی شورای نگهبان معنای ويژه خود را می يابد.

در ارتباط با برگزاری همزمان دو انتخابات رياست جمهوری و مجلس، يکی از نمايندگان مجلس بنام " مولاهويزه" که نماينده دشت آزادگان است، صريح تر از ديگر نمايندگان مجلس بر آن ارزيابی صحه گذاشت که بسياری حدس می زدند و پيک نت نيز، در همان بحث های اوليه مربوط به اين طرح آن را منعکس کرده بود.

اين نماينده مجلس گفت:

« تجميع انتخابات رياست*جمهوری دهم و مجلس*هشتم كه تصويب نهايی شد، كم كردن زمان رياست*جمهوری احمدی*نژاد است. پافشاری برخی نمايندگان برتجميع اگرچه صرفه*جويی در هزينه*ها را درپی دارد اما موجب تضعيف رييس*جمهوری را فراهم خواهد كرد. از آنجا كه تعامل وزرا با نمايندگان در حال حاضر كمرنگ است، دولت بايد شاهد چنين عكس*العمل*هايی باشد.

[Rasputin]

Titus Livius (59 B.C.–A.D. 17) the Roman historian once said that men are only too clever at shifting blame from their own shoulders to those of others. These days Mr. Ahmadinejad, the man the West loves to hate, is in hot waters in Iran. He is blamed for almost everything that has gone wrong with Iran. Iranian newspapers and politicians of all colours are lining-up to criticize his leadership and economic policies. He is blamed for everything from shortage of dialysis machines in some clinics to high inflation and provocative speeches. Some politicians are even talking about impeaching not only some of his ministers, but also the president himself.

What a difference a year makes. It was in mid 2005 that Ahmadinejad won a land-slide victory (62&#37 in the presidential election. As a presidential candidate he had promised to improve the lives of the poor and the lower classes by “putting petroleum income on people’s tables”. His campaign motto was “it is possible and we can do it”.

Son of a blacksmith, Ahmadinejad was the fourth child of a working class family with seven children. He was brought up in the rough and poor neighbourhoods of south Tehran. He is therefore familiar with the problems facing the poor families and has tried to fulfil his election promises to them by increasing the minimum wage (under pressure was later reversed), the pensions, consumer loans for low-income families, loans for small enterprises in underdeveloped regions, and other popular projects. He has also been travelling around the country approving construction projects and distributing largesse.

This lavish spending has increased the double digit inflation rate even more and has caused concerns among politicians and economists that his economic policies coupled with his hard-line stance on nuclear dispute and approach to foreign policy may damage the country. Some economists argue that while the country’s economy is being pressured externally (sanctions), the government is spending money as though there were abundance of resources.

The Iranian senior economist Dr. Masoud Nili of Iran International points to an ever expanding government budget and increasing dependence on the oil revenues as a serious problem for the country. He argues that:

“in 1998, average oil price stood at 10.8 dollars per barrel and oil revenues grew fourfold in about 7 years. Meanwhile, state budget in 1998 was less than 71,000 billion rials, but Iran’s budget for 2006 has been estimated at 600,000 billion rials; that is, while oil revenues have quadrupled over a 7-year period, state budget has increased eightfold during the same period.

Before 2002, government spent an average of 15 billion dollars in foreign exchange. The figure increased to 21 billion dollars in 2003, to 30 billion dollars in 2004, and to 36 billion dollars in 2005. It seems that the figure will reach 45 billion dollars in 2006, which is indicative of serious budgetary dependence on petrodollars.

The Third Economic Development Plan aimed at reducing government’s dependence on oil revenues to less than 12 billion dollars, but it actually soared to more than 40 billion dollars in 2006. Therefore, the government’s budget experienced such a great leap in 14 months from January 2005 to march 2006, when the government was determined to offer Majlis with a budget supplement. Considering this reality, one can conclude that the country witnessed one of its biggest financial developments in the Iranian year, 1385.”[1]

As inflation is rapidly approaching critical levels, economists and politicians have began to sound the alarms. There are now open calls for impeachment of several government ministers and although not openly mentioned, the moderates and some conservatives would like nothing more than impeaching the president himself. The rallying cry for the opposition is “the economy”; a clever point of attack since they know that no president no matter how wise or prudent, can solve the existing economic problems of Iran without a comprehensive restructuring of the economy; something that many special interest groups and powerful economic entities are against. The following are some of the problems facing Iran.

Systemic Problems
Iran has a very young population. Almost 47 million of the nearly 70 million Iranians are bellow the age of 25. That is 67% of the population. Of this 47 million, 25 million are between 15 and 25 years old.

Theoretically, a country with abundant natural resources and a young educated workforce should have no problem in economically growing rapidly. Alas Iranian economy, like most other oil dependant economies, is to a very large extent government owned and controlled. Hence all the pressure on the economy automatically becomes political pressure on the government.

For instance, the inflationary policies of the current government is the direct result of the government’s desire to reduce poverty and hence the growing inequality in Iran; which in itself is threatening not only the social fabric of the society but also the stability of the regime. In October 2006, the supreme leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei in a letter to the President and Cabinet demanded a reduction in the class gap. He stated that:

“Because of the class gap that has remained from former regime, now our country needs economic justice more than anything. The government should make profits more in this situation and move toward declared goals and mottos. The achievement of justice is too difficult and requires many preparations such as geographic and classic justice, justice in economic and cultural affairs, justice in substituting officials and granting responsibilities and justice in judgments. The execution of justice must be logically within the Islamic frame. According to article 44 and notes (A) & (B), the state should decrease its interferences in economy.” [2]

But reducing poverty and the gap between the rich and poor in the current economic system is extremely difficult. In a normal liberal economic system the government’s revenues come mostly from investments and taxes. Tax revenue is supposed to cover most of the government’s budget. Tax coupled with social security is also an instrument of wealth distribution. But collecting taxes is something that requires a formal and transparent economy, not to mention information on who earns what. Iranian government can only collate information about what it’s companies and some large corporations earn. The rest is a made up of series of guess works. For example, Bazzaries (Traditional merchants) seldom declare their true net worth or income to the authorities, and the authorities have no system of finding out the true income of these individuals and companies. Another problem is the informal economy. For example, major part of Tehran’s economy, a city of almost 12-15 million people, runs on an informal, off-the-book system, making taxation extremely difficult. Then we have the various tax exempt charity foundations that are involved in almost all aspect of the economy.

[Rasputin]

Bonyads (Charity Foundations)
In Iran, by some estimates, the Bonyads (charity foundations) control over 30% of the economy and yet pay no taxes at all [3]. They are involved in everything from vast Soybean and cotton fields to hotels to soft drinks to auto-manufacturing to shipping lines to... These foundations represent vast economic empires that are neither taxed nor are directly under government control.

As charity organisations they are supposed to provide social services to the poor and the needy. Yet since there are over 100 of these organisations operating independently, the government doesn’t know what, why, how and to whom this help and assistance is given. Lack of proper oversight and control of these foundations has also hampered the government’s efforts in creating a comprehensive social security system in the country.

These organisations also compete with other private actors in the country. Private companies find it exceedingly difficult to compete with such large corporations, since they (Bonyads) have both the political and financial muscle to compete in any given market segment for as long as they like without considering the profitability of their ventures. These Bonyads, by their very presence, are hampering healthy economic competition and growth.

Subsidies
Another problem facing the government is the subsidies. Subsidies in general are either paid in cash (like food-stamp in US) or child support allowance in Norway, or are paid to the manufacturers of goods/services to reduce the actual prices of goods/services. In the former case, the subsidies are targeted at a particular group, such as unemployed or families with children. In the latter the subsidies cover the whole of the population. This means that a person, regardless of his/her financial situation will benefit from those subsidies.

One of the most pressing issues in Iran today is the mushrooming energy use and the amount of hard currency that is going into subsidies. The government imports over $7 billion dollars worth of petrol per year. Yet the price of a gallon of petrol is only 33 cents. This subsidy does nothing more than encourage smuggling of petrol to the neighbouring countries where prices are higher. It also removes any incentive for the consumers to save on their energy consumption. These subsidies also create an environment in which manufacturers become complacent and not only do not conserve energy in their production activities, but also do not try to build energy efficient appliances and machines; simply because their consumers do not pay attention to the product’s energy consumption. Based on energy consumption, Iranian made cars, freezers, refrigerators, etc. will not be able to compete with the similar sized Japanese, American or European products.

Red Tape and Inefficiency
In Iran, if you want to do anything such as changing money at the bank or starting your own business or anything else for that matter, you have to fill-out many forms and spend hours going from office to office. Often a paper has to be signed by different individuals in different offices in different building in different areas of the town. One can easily spend several days trying to get different officials’ signatures for anything from starting a business to getting a driving license.

Much of the government’s information collection and processing is still paper-based and there are virtually mountains of files being kept in offices around the country. Computerisation is under-way, but for the time being millions of hours of people’s time are being spent taking forms from offices to offices, increasing inefficiency, traffic and frustration.

Couple this kind of red tape with state owned industries and you get a sure way of turning billions into millions. Government run industries usually are less efficient than the privately owned industries. Couple this with political interference, nepotism, cronyism and general corruption and you get industries that produce goods and services of questionable quality at the highest possible prices. Since the losses are covered by the government, the pressure to improve is minimal. The losses are either covered through the budget or through loans by state owned banks. In other words, the funds that could have been made available for economic growth through the private sector, is tied-up in keeping inefficient and loss-making industries alive. For instance it is calculated that each year over one billion dollar worth of electricity is wasted due to the inefficiency of the Ministry of Energy.

“Some 30,000 Gigawatt hour electricity equal to the total electricity generation of some 30 Boushehr-like nuclear power plants is wasted annually in Iran. Some 18.5 percent of the electricity produced in Iran is wasted before it reaches to consumers due to technical problems and mismanagement in the Energy Ministry, a former supervisory body in the ministry told BAZTAB.”[4]

Electricity wastage is not the only problem. Iranians use and waste water like never before. According to deputy head of Iran Water Resources Management Company for planning and economic affairs, Alireza Daemi, Iranians use almost double the amount of water as Europeans use. “It is no secret that water consumption level in Iranian metropolitan areas is higher than the average rate recorded for most developed cities in other parts of the world. For example, the per capita water consumption in European cities is 140 litres per day, while the related figure in Iran nears 300 litres. By raising public awareness on the cost of producing water, the government hopes to encourage people to rethink their consumption patterns. This is more like a cultural gesture. The UN Third-Millennium Development Goal for the water sector indicates that setting the value is one of the strategies for correcting water consumption models” Daemi further said that a major challenge for the government is to put in place optimum water consumption patterns in the household sector. “Potable water wastage in Iran is higher than the global rate, while the industrial sector is failing to properly manage its waste often allowing it to trickle down to rivers, causing irreparable damage to the environment.” [5]

Corruption
Voltaire once said that when it's a question of money, everybody is of the same religion. When it comes to corruption Iranians are no different than Saudis, Egyptians, Americans or Norwegians. Religion of corruption is the same all over the world: money and power. Corruption is usually the result of three things, lack of transparency, lack of regulations or too many regulations. Paradoxically, you’ll find all three conditions in Iran.

Transparency is vital in fighting corruption. In Norway for example, everyone’s total declared income and taxes paid is available to the public. All government contracts are similarly open to scrutiny. Also at the end of every year, banks issue each of their customers an end of the year statement, detailing how much money they have in their account(s). The customer is required by law to declare that to the government. In such circumstances, it is very difficult for someone to earn anything without paying taxes or hiding how he/she earned that money in the first place. No one is exempt. I know how much the Norwegian prime minister earned last year and what his net worth is. Unless he uses dummy companies, keep cash under his mattress, or carry a suitcase of cash out of the country (not possible because of high security levels at the airports), he has no way of avoiding declaring his income. This and other rules and regulations limit the level of corruption in the country.

Norway is ranked 8th in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. Iran was ranked 105th out of 163. The most corrupt nation was Haiti (163rd). Iran’s ranking or its Corruption Perception Index does not show any sign of improvement. In 2003 when Iran was first included in the list, it was ranked as the 78th out of 133 countries examined. In 2004 it was ranked the 87th out of 145. In 2005 it was ranked 88th out of 158 countries and in 2006 it occupied the unenviable 105th place.[6]

The lack of transparency is one of the most important problems facing Iran. Only through complete transparency in financial affairs of the government and Bonyads (charity foundations) that Iran can begin to clean itself of this scourge of corruption. Corruption increases inefficiencies and hampers economic growth. Corruption eats at the social fabric of the society, changing people’s perception of important values such as honesty, loyalty and hard work.

[Rasputin]

Privatization
Iranian government is one of the biggest employers in Iran. It is involved in oil, gas, mining, construction, electricity generation, telecom, transportation and lots of other industries, many of which have not made any profits for a long time. These companies are a major burden on the government’s budget and on the economy. Privatisation seems to have been accepted as a solution to the problem. That is until Ahmadinejad came to power.

Ahmadinejad’s idea of privatisation was vastly different from the previous governments. He wants to distribute the shares of the companies equally between the people, while others would like to sell the companies to the highest bidders.

“The member of Tehran Chamber of Commerce (T.C.C.) representative board in an exclusive conversation with T.C.C. news site said: “The justice share is not a part of privatization. Maybe the result of division of 80 per cent of government share between people equally, is satisfactory but the people can not manage even 10 per cent of these shares because they have not expertise in management. So the government will manage the company again.”

“The main purpose of privatization is the change of management to increase returns and create additional value in economy for more development”, he added.

He said: “The government is against the privatization. The reason for delaying in this process is related to the reluctances of officials.”

“The privatization is a double side process: the private sector that should invest in economy and purchase the companies, and government sector that should accept to delegate its properties. Now the government throws a monkey wrench into privatization process. The government must be restricted for investment and can only invest in especial field such as security and information “, he added.” [8]

The problem with normal privatization in Iran is that majority of people do not have the money to participate in such auctions. Who has the money? The Bonyads and others who already have a stranglehold over the economy. Without proper laws and safeguards, privatization may lead to creation of huge monopolies in the country. We must not forget the Russian experience, where privatization was seen by the people as wholesale theft of the country’s resources by a few individuals.

Privatization is the best solution for Iran, but it can only be done after a systemic revision of laws. Anti-monopoly laws have to be strengthened and some large state owned companies have to be broken into parts before privatization.

Government must also strengthen its social security services before any large scale privatisation can take place. Any privatisation will definitely lead to large scale lay-off of part of the work-force which can lead to social upheaval. The country is already suffering from high unemployment and under-employment. Any sudden increase without social safety net (such as unemployment benefits, retraining programs, etc) may well result in large scale protest against the government.

Prior to any privatization, government owned companies have to be turned into limited liability companies with government as the majority share-holder. These companies should then be managed like other private companies. When the proper social security system along with anti-monopoly laws are in place, then the shares of these companies can be sold to the public. It would not be a bad idea for the government to have a closer look at the Nordic system of privatization.

Conclusion
Iran with its tremendous natural resources and a young educated population has the potential to become an economic power house for the whole region. It has the potential to grow at 8 to 10 percent per year for the next two decades. Yet, year after year it grows at a mediocre rate and even that growth is dependent on the price of oil. The country suffers from lack of transparency, lack of regulations where it counts and over regulation and heavy bureaucracy where it isn’t needed. In other words, Iran suffers from systemic problems that can not be addressed piecemeal. The current high inflation, unemployment, underemployment and corruption are symptoms of these systemic problems.

Ahmadinejad’s economic policies certainly can be blamed for the current increasing inflation and unemployment. But he can not be blamed for everything that has gone wrong in Iran. Factionalism, push and pull from special economic interest groups, pervasive corruption, smuggling, bad management of state owned companies, badly planned subsidies, lack of comprehensive social security and health plan, lack of proper system for economic information collection and taxation are just a few of the problems that have existed long before Ahmadinejad became president.

The first step in the right direction is to improve the economic data collection system of the country. It is vitally important for the government to know who (individuals and corporations) earns what. Only through access to this information can the government create a workable taxing system. Only through this can the government begin to reduce corruption, target subsidies, reduce inequality and plan for the future.

The next step is to create a comprehensive social security system where people do not have to rely on charity foundations. These foundations have to be sold-off and the proceeds included in a social security fund for the country; other wise over time, these entities will become so powerful that they will become the effective rulers of the country.

The Iranian economy is now in stable condition going towards critical. As long as United States is threatening Iran, and with Iraq as an example of what can happen, people are willing to accept any kind of hardship. But once that threat is removed, people will demand an improvement in their standard of living, something that current economic system is unable to deliver. In the current economic environment, increasing salaries only increases inflation and unemployment.

The last three Iranian presidents have tried to tweak the system in various ways to optimise it without any success. They all had learned men advising them on the best way to manage this sick economy. Yet none succeeded. It is perhaps time for learning from others. The current learned people in Iran may be masters of squeezing all that is possible out of the current economic system, but that is not enough. It is time to change the economic system and try new things. It is perhaps time to become a learner again, for as Eric Hoffer (writer) once said “in times of change, learners inherit the Earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists.”

[Rasputin]

Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar lives in Norway. He is a consultant and a contributing writer for many online journals. He's a former associate professor of Nordland University, Norway.

[1] Massoud Nili, “Picture of Iran’s Oil-Dependent Economy”, Iran International, May 2006, No. 40

[2] Tehran Chamber of Commerce and Industries & Mines, “Our country needs economic justice more than anything”, 14 October 2006

[3] Kenneth Katzman, “Statement of Kenneth Katzman”, Joint Economic Committee Hearing on Iran, July 25, 2006

[4] Baztab.com, “USD 1 Billion of Electricity Wasted Due to Energy Ministry Inefficiency”, 20 January 2007

[5] Iran Daily, “Water Challenges”, Economic Focus, March 25, 2006

[6] Transparency International, “Corruption Perception Index 2006”

[7] Baztab.com, “People are urged to report the wealth of the government officials”, 19 January, 2007

[8] Tehran Chamber of Commerce, “Justice Share is opposite to privatization”, 14 October 2006

[Rasputin]

مجلس

احضار احمدی نژاد

متنظر 10 امضای دیگر!




گرامي مقدم در اين نشت خبري پس از انتقاد برنامه ريزي هاي نادرست دولت در زمينه اقتصادي ابراز عقيده كرد: از اگر دولت به برنامه*ها توجه ندارد به اين خاطر است كه مجلس را قبول ندارد، دولت*ها از پارلمان*ها راي مي*گيرند تا قوانين را اجرا كنند، قوانيني كه از سوي نمايندگان مردم تصويب شده است.

تقابل مجلس و دولت، شانه به شانه مسائل حاد مربوط به فعالیت های اتمی ایران پیش می رود و در آخرین اخباری که از درون مجلس بیرون آمده، شمار امضاها برای احضار احمدی نژاد به مجلس از مرز 60 نماینده گذشت. برای احضار رئیس جمهوری به مجلس 70 امضاء لازم است و به این ترتیب، تا احضار احمدی نژاد به مجلس تنها 10 امضاء فاصله داریم.

گرامي مقدم نماینده بجنورد در مجلس هفتم، درهمین ارتباط روز گذشته گفت: «درحال حاضر60 نماينده نامه دعوت رئيس جمهور به مجلس را امضا كرده اند كه 40 درصد امضاكنندگان از طيف اصولگرا هستند. حساسيت بين نمايندگان به خصوص پس از سخنراني رييس جمهور در زمان تقديم لايحه بودجه بيشتر شد.»

گرامی مقدم که سخنگوي حزب اعتمادملي نیز هست، در ادامه گفته است: «پس از حمله به كنسولگري ايران در اربيل از مرز تحريم به تهديد رسيده*ايم و كشور ما در وضعيت نگران*كننده*اي قرار دارد. دولت و شوراي امنيت كشور و مسوولين پرونده* هسته*اي بايد دايره*ي تصميم*گيري را وسيع*تر كنند و در تصميمات خودشان منافع ملي و منافع نظام را لحاظ كنند.»

در همین ارتباط دو مصاحبه قابل توجه روز گذشته منتشر شد.

مصاحبه اول را محمدجواد لاریجانی، معاون اسبق وزارت امور خارجه و از کارشناسان سیاست خارجی در طیف راست جمهوری اسلامی با خبرگزاری ایرنا کرد و با تاکید بر انتقاداتی که بر دولت و رئیس آن- احمدی نژاد- وارد است گفت: هر انتقادی در هر عرصه ای به رئیس جمهوری داشته باشیم- که خود من هم دارم- در باره مسائل اتمی اکنون باید از او حمایت کنیم زیرا وحدت نظر و عمل دراین ارتباط بسیار ضروری است.

مصاحبه دوم را علاء الدین بروجردی، رئیس کمیسیون سیاست خارجی و امنیت ملی مجلس هفتم و معاون سابق وزارت خارجه درجریان سفر به قم کرده و تقریبا با مواضعی مشابه آنچه محمد جواد لاریجانی اتخاذ و اعلام کرده بود، دغدغه های هاشمی رفسنجانی را که در نماز جمعه گذشته مطرح شد تائید کرد. او نیز نه با صراحت رفسنجانی، اما با همان مضمون اوضاع کنونی را بحرانی توصیف کرد.

مصاحبه بروجردی را نیز هم خبرگزاری های داخلی منتشر کردند و هم سایت های سیاسی داخل کشور مانند آفتاب، انتخاب و....

[Rasputin]

احمدي* نژاد با بيان اينكه ايران و روسيه به عنوان دو همسايه قديمى داراى منافع مشترك فراوان بخصوص در حوزه*هاى امنيت بين*المللي، همكاري* در زمينه انرژى و بخصوص امنيت منطقه*يى هستند، گفت: از يك سو منافع ملى ايران و روسيه در موارد متعددى به هم گره خورده است و از سوى ديگر برخى قدرت*هاى فرامنطقه*يى نمي*خواهند اين دو كشور به عنوان دو قدرت بزرگ نقش مهم خود را براى ثبات و امنيت منطقه*يى و بين*المللى ايفا كنند و اين نشان*دهنده اهميت همكارى و تبادل نظر هر چه بيشتر تهران ـ مسكو است.

به گزارش گروه دريافت خبر خبرگزارى دانشجويان ايران (ايسنا)، رييس جمهور عصر روز يكشنبه در ديدار ايگور ايوانف، دبير شوراى عالى امنيت ملى روسيه و پس از دريافت پيام كتبى رييس جمهور اين كشور، با اشاره به سطح خوب روابط دوجانبه و همكاري*هاى جمهورى اسلامى ايران و روسيه در ابعاد مختلف گفت: اميدواريم افزايش رايزني*ها و رفت و آمد*هاى مقامات بلند پايه دو كشور سرعت گسترش روابط ايران و روسيه در ابعاد اقتصادي، سياسى و فرهنگى را بيشتر كند.

دكتر احمدي* نژاد با بيان اينكه حل مشكلات و مسايل پيچيده منطقه خاورميانه نيازمند تدابير جديد و همه*جانبه مبتنى بر احترام به حقوق انسان*هاست، گفت: آمريكا امروز از درك و حل مساله عراق عاجز و كاملا در اين كشور شكست خورده است؛ به طورى كه با اعزام هزاران نيروى ديگر هم اين درماندگى حل نخواهد شد و در صورتى كه آقاى بوش در عراق دست به اقدامات ناپخته ديگرى هم بزند نه تنها هيچ بهبودى در شرايط آمريكا ايجاد نخواهد شد بلكه هر چه بيشتر گرفتار مي*شود.

رييس شوراى عالى امنيت با تاكيد بر اينكه با تعميق هر چه بيشتر همكارى خوب ايران و روسيه در مسايل مختلف مي*توان شاهد حل سريعتر مشكلات منطقه از جمله در عراق، افغانستان و خاورميانه بود گفت: جمهورى اسلامى ايران در موضوع هسته*يى همواره از موضع منطق و استدلال سخن گفته و آماده مذاكره بدون پيش شرط است، اما عملكرد نامناسب سه كشور اروپايى در سال*هاى گذشته علاوه بر ايجاد حس بي*اعتمادى در دولت و ملت ايران، تنها باعث تلف شدن فرصت شده است.

رييس جمهور با تاكيد بر اينكه "اگر هدف از مذاكره در مورد موضوع هسته*يى ايران، تحميل شرايط ناعادلانه و محروم كردن ملت ايران از حقوق مسلم خود باشد، به هيچ وجه قابل قبول نيست" گفت: امروز دستيابى و بهره*مندى از فن*آورى صلح*آميز هسته*يى مطالبه عمومى و مهم ايرانيان در همه نقاط جهان است و ملت بزرگ ايران متحد و بيدار، براى حفظ استقلال سياسى كشور در وسط صحنه ايستاده است.

ايگور ايوانف دبير شوراى عالى امنيت ملى روسيه نيز در اين ديدار گسترش روابط دو كشور را در تمام بخش*ها حائز اهميت دانست و گفت: روسيه و ايران در مسايل مهم و كليدى جهانى همكاري*هاى خوبى دارند كه نمونه آن همكارى در مسايل بين*المللى از جمله مبارزه با تروريسم و مواد مخدر است و دو كشور داراى مواضع و منافع مشترك در بسيارى از مسايل جهانى هستند.

ايگور ايوانف همچنين با اشاره به پيشرفت*هاى چشمگير جمهورى اسلامى ايران در بخش*هاى مختلف گفت: روسيه خواهان گسترش هر چه بيشتر روابط با ايران بر اساس منافع متقابل است و اميدواريم طرح*ها و موافقت*نامه*هاى امضا شده در كميسيون مشترك اقتصادى دو كشور از جمله راه*اندازى نيرو*گاه هسته*يى بوشهر در موعد مقرر اجرايى شوند.

دبير شوراى امنيت ملى روسيه همچنين با اشاره به مساله هسته*يى و اهميت آن براى ملت ايران و تلاش برخى قدرت*ها براى پيچيده كردن اين مساله افزود: روسيه معتقد است مساله*ى هسته*يى ايران تنها از طريق گفت*وگو و ادامه مذاكرات حل خواهد شد و در اين خصوص آماده هر گونه همكارى براى يافتن راه حل سياسى و بررسى پيشنهاد*هاى مختلف براى رسيدن به نقطه*نظر مشترك و مورد قبول طرف*هاى مذاكره است.

ايگور ايوانف همچنين طرح*هاى آمريكا را براى تك قطبى كردن جهان محكوم به شكست دانست و گفت: نمونه شكست سياست*هاى آمريكا، دخالت در امور عراق است كه متاسفانه همچنان ادامه دارد ولى كشور*هاى تاثيرگذار و مهم منطقه از جمله ايران و روسيه بايد با تشريك مساعى و اتخاذ تدابير لازم از ادامه تنش جلوگيرى كرده و موجبات امنيت و ثبات منطقه را فراهم كنند.

[Rasputin]

Iranian President's Setbacks,,,

With another confrontational moment in Iran's nuclear standoff approaching next month, criticism of the country's president at home is increasing.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose landslide victory in elections 18 months ago set the Iranian establishment reeling, suddenly faces a concerted effort by political foes to constrain both his populist economic policies and his public defiance of the West.

Many of Tehran's elite politicians and even clerics have long harbored concerns about Mr. Ahmadinejad, who ascended to the country's top political post from outside the traditional ruling circles. But the immense popularity he generated among Iran's poor and working-class voters kept many of his critics from speaking out or openly moving against his policies.

He also appeared to have the backing of the most important figure in Iran's power structure, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But a round of elections late last year -- for local municipal and village leaders as well as an important national consultative body -- has undermined Mr. Ahmadinejad's political momentum and unleashed a flood of public criticism and moves to clip his wings. Candidates whom Mr. Ahmadinejad supported fared poorly in the elections, while key adversaries re-established themselves as fixtures of the political scene.

In Tehran's city council, from which Mr. Ahmadinejad launched his campaign for president two years ago, his supporters went from a majority to a handful of seats. Meanwhile, Hashemi Rafsanjani, whom Mr. Ahmadinejad defeated in the presidential election two years ago, dominated the voting for seats on the Assembly of Experts, the body charged with choosing a new Supreme Leader when the 67-year-old Mr. Khamenei steps down or dies.


Since those public votes, a drumbeat of criticism against Mr. Ahmadinejad's administration has emerged from within Iran's Parliament and among some senior regime officials. The president even found himself confronted by a crowd of jeering students during an appearance at a Tehran university campus, with a video of the incident distributed on the Internet.

"The elections opened a space and legitimized criticism of him," said Nasser Hadian, a political-science professor at the University of Tehran. "There are going to be more attempts to contain him."

The poor showing by candidates associated with Mr. Ahmadinejad in local elections -- and the relatively better performance of reform candidates opposed to him -- resulted from the sort of strong turnout that generally favors reformers. The country's conservatives also failed to rally behind a single slate of candidates, as they did during the earlier presidential election. But high on many voters' minds is Iran's increasingly muddled economy.


The president won the election with vows to improve the living standards of Iranians. He has pursued a populist agenda, while traversing the nation to announce development initiatives. Rising spending, however, has sparked a bout of inflation, which officially is 15% but private economists say likely is far higher. After a speech introducing his annual budget -- which will push spending another 20% higher for the fiscal year beginning in March -- Mr. Ahmadinejad argued with several parliamentarians over the rising price of tomatoes.

While Mr. Ahmadinejad's appeal persists among his core supporters, they are among the hardest-hit by rising inflation, and some privately express doubts about his leadership.

"He looked like a decent person, one of us," says one 57-year-old man who works part time washing dishes in a restaurant in southern Tehran. "I voted for him, but I wouldn't again."

Meanwhile, Mr. Rafsanjani, a longtime regime power broker and president of the country during much of the early 1990s, is spearheading a tentative movement to rein in Mr. Ahmadinejad, particularly his proclamations about Iran's nuclear program and denunciations of Israel. A large group of parliamentarians, including many who once supported Mr. Ahmadinejad, recently met with Mr. Rafsanjani. The gathering was seen as an important indication that support for Mr. Ahmadinejad is eroding.


A key question is whether Mr. Khamenei will continue backing Mr. Ahmadinejad. While the Supreme Leader has vocally defended the president and largely embraced his confrontational approach toward the United Nations Security Council on the nuclear issue in, Mr. Khamenei has done little to stem criticism of Mr. Ahmadinejad. He also has held several meetings with Mr. Rafsanjani.

Mr. Ahmadinejad's standing with Mr. Khamenei, and the broader attempts to rein him in, could be important in the run-up to a Feb. 20 deadline for the Security Council resolution passed in December ordering Iran to stop its uranium-enrichment program. The U.S. and European countries say the program has violated international rules and is aimed at creating a nuclear weapon. Iran says the program is peaceful and hasn't violated international rules.

The resolution included a limited set of sanctions targeting officials and organizations accused of involvement in the nuclear program. European governments have joined with the U.S. to broaden and toughen those punishments. The U.S. is expected to push for harsher sanctions if Iran doesn't stop its enrichment program.

Mr. Khamenei reiterated publicly recently that Iran wouldn't halt enrichment, but Mr. Ahmadinejad has been relatively quiet on the issue in public. Some European diplomats and Iranian analysts say Iran might agree to a temporary pause in the program after the country completes a research-level enrichment project in coming weeks, in an effort to keep the crisis from escalating further.