Nuclear Crisis

[Rasputin]

Regarding the Dec. 1 news story "U.S. May Pursue Iran Sanctions Even if Russia Balks":

The United States should not be allowed to impose its will on the United Nations.

Instead of bullying other nations to endorse illegal sanctions on Iran -- which has no nuclear weapons program and is simply exercising its lawful rights under the Non-Proliferation Treaty to fabricate fuel for its power plant under full inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency -- the U.S. government should recognize Iran's rights and lift its sanctions.

The world has learned what happens when the United States is allowed to manipulate the U.N. Security Council without due consideration of international law.

On what legal basis is the United States seeking U.N. sanctions on Iran when the IAEA has repeatedly concluded that there is no evidence of military diversion? Why should Iran be denied its own nuclear fuel cycle when so many other nations enjoy this right unimpeded?

The fact that has so far evaded the media's attention is how the American government manipulates the issue of Iran's nuclear program to justify its interventionist policies in the region around Iran, notwithstanding Iran's steadfast opposition to those policies.

[Rasputin]

PARIS (AFP) - The powers making up the UN Security Council are agreed that "there will be sanctions" against Iran, though their extent is yet to be decided, France said, after a Paris meeting on Tehran's nuclear programme.


"There is a question as to the extent of the sanctions, but there will be sanctions," Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy told RTL radio Wednesday.

He said the five permanent UN Security Council members plus Germany "agree on one thing: that there will be a United Nations Security Council resolution backed by all, including China and Russia.

Political directors from Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia and the United States met in the French capital late Wednesday to talk about what action to take against Iran, which defied a UN deadline of August 31 to cease enriching uranium.

Several of the countries, especially the United States, fear that despite Iran's insistence that it is pursuing civilian nuclear energy ambitions, the programme is in fact designed to build a nuclear arsenal.

Diplomats said the Paris meeting failed to reach agreement among the six countries on what sanctions should be applied.

Russia and China -- which have strong economic interests in Iran -- have tried to water down a draft UN Security Council resolution drawn up by France, Britain and Germany, while the United States has sought to harden it.

The European draft would bar trade with Iran in goods related to its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and impose financial and travel restrictions on persons and agencies involved.

According to diplomats in Paris, Russia -- though willing to back the trade ban -- is still opposed to sanctions being applied to individuals, though it will accept a ban on shipments of sensitive goods.

Tehran has warned it would regard any attempt to thwart its nuclear programme as an "act of hostility".

Douste-Blazy, at a joint media conference with his Israeli counterpart Tzipi Livni, said France was "in a hurry" to see sanctions imposed.

"I think this is about the credibility of the United Nations Security Council," he said.

"To my mind, we are going to find a joint solution to be united behind a resolution," he said, adding that he would soon be speaking by telephone with the foreign ministers of the five other countries involved.

Livni, whose country is especially alarmed over Iran's nuclear ambitions and its expressed wish to see Israel one day wiped off the map, said decisions had to be made quickly, "because the Iranians are trying to stall" to win time to master the nuclear processes underway.

[Rasputin]

Diplomatic efforts on Iran's nuclear issue ran into deadlock

The controversial and highly sensitive Iranian nuclear issue, coming in the spotlight for more than three years, was stuck at a standstill by the end of 2006 due to the hardline stance pursued by both Tehran and the Western countries.

The sticking point between the two sides was uranium enrichment activities, which Iran claimed for generating electricity while the West feared might be used to make nuclear weapons. Despite great efforts that the international community had paid to defuse the crisis, the whole situation was still inevitably fell into a deadlock.

IRAN'S URANIUM ENRICHMENT AND ITS NUCLEAR STANCE

Shortly after Tehran decided to resume uranium enrichment work, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declared on April 11 that the country had successfully produced 3.5 percent enriched uranium with its first group of 164 centrifuges.

Western countries, especially the U.S. feared that Iran's nuclear program was aimed at making nuclear weapons, but according to many experts, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), uranium with 3.5 percent purity was at a pretty low level and was actually not enough to make a bomb.

However, Iran's top officials have made a lot of flinty comments on Western demand to freeze uranium enrichment, saying Iran was already a nuclear country and it was deserved to be respected as a powerful country by the international community.

Accompanying these remarks, an Iranian heavy water plant dived into circulation on Aug. 26, which was used to feed a neighboring nuclear research reactor under construction. The research reactor is going to be completed in 2009 despite IAEA's opposing attitude, and could produce plutonium for what Iran said of medical use at the appointed time.

What is more, Tehran confirmed the country's experts had installed the second group of another 164 centrifuges on Oct. 25 and said Iran had gained the product (uranium) several days later. More over, President Ahmadinejad also disclosed Iran would install 3,000 centrifuges by the end of this year, and would finally have 60,000 for the whole program.

INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS, PRESSURE TO DEFUSE CRISIS AND IRAN'S RESISTANCE

In the face of Iran's uncompromising position, the international community outspread both persuasion and squeeze play, beginning a persistent effort to seek diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue.

Due to Iran's insistence to enrichment activities, the IAEA board of governors on Feb. 4 adopted a resolution at an emergency meeting to report Iran's nuclear issue to the UN Security Council. Iran immediately slashed at that decision and vowed it would not bend to such a "pressure".

In order to ease the tension between Iran and the international community, chief of UN nuclear watchdog Mohamed ElBaradei paid a visit to Tehran in April, he urged on Iran to abide by UN request and to suspend its nuclear activities for a specific period of time, but Iran's chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani told him the UN Security Council statement on March 29 demanding Iran to freeze the enrichment-related activities was "not so important".

In June, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council (Britain, China, France, Russia, and the U.S.) plus Germany agreed a new package over Iran's disputed nuclear issues. The proposal included both incentives aimed at persuading Iran to suspend uranium enrichment and possible sanctions if Iran chooses not to comply.

Later, European Union (EU) foreign policy chief Javier Solana visited Tehran to present Iran the new six-nation proposal, and Iranian President Ahmadinejad promised to give a formal response on Aug. 22.

However, the international community seemed to have no patience to wait for Iran's answer for two months. The UN Security Council on July 31 adopted a resolution by a vote of 14 to 1, urging Tehran to "suspend all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, including research and development" by Aug. 31 or face the prospect of sanctions.

As a response, Iran's top leaders, especially Ahmadinejad have repeatedly said the country would not accept it and "the Iranian people do not give in to language of force".

On Aug. 22, in its formal response to the package, Iran didn't mention anything about "suspension", a huge slash to the world powers' effort. Soon, the UN deadline of Aug. 31 also passed, the UN Security Council received nothing from the Iranian government but Ahmadinejad's pledge "not to back down an inch from its legal rights in the face of intimidation".

In order to prevent the situation at that time from moving into further crisis, EU's Solana met with Larijani several times in September to discuss Iran's possibility to halt enrichment.

But after the month-long contact, the EU was disappointed with Tehran's uncompromising stance. On Oct. 17, the EU foreign ministers issued a statement which virtually admitted the failure of negotiations, saying that if Iran does not comply with UN Security Council's requirements, the EU would "work for the adoption of measures under Article 41 of the UN Charter," which stipulates economic and diplomatic sanctions.

Iran's top officials subsequently criticized EU's statement, saying it would destroy the opportunity to resolve Iran's nuclear issue peacefully and worsen the crisis in Mideast.

THE U.S. SANCTION, MILITARY THREAT AND IRAN'S CORRESPONDING MEASURES

The United States was the most firm country to push sanction proposals in the UN Security Council for a long time. Iran's Islamic Revolution in 1979 was a big blow to the U.S. interests and its confidence in the Mideast region, therefore these two countries almost have no trust in each other for a long time. The U.S. believed Tehran's final object of developing nuclear technology was to make nuclear weapons to destroy the current international political and economic system, and no explanations from Iran can make it give up this idea.

Since Iran's rejection to compromise by Aug. 31, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton immediately started persuading other countries to act together on a draft resolution to impose sanctions against Iran.

Facing the U.S. sanctions threat, Iranian officials did not retreat from their tough position. President Ahmadinejad and chief nuclear negotiator Larijani have warned that Tehran may "reconsider its cooperation policy with IAEA" and may "recast its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)". Iran's Vice Foreign Minister Sheikh Attar also said the global oil-consuming nations' interests would be harmed if UN decided to impose sanctions, because oil was one of Iran's powerful weapons to resist the Western bluster.

The possibility of military attack against Iran's nuclear facilities has never been removed from the desks of U.S. and Israeli leaders. Since the war between Israel and Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah guerilla broke out this summer, and Israeli threat to launch pre-emptive attacks on its nuclear facilities, Tehran became increasingly impatient and stewed.

Following by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's comments that U.S. global interests may get revenged if it launches an attack on the Islamic republic, Iranian armed forces launched three large scale military maneuvers in the country and the Gulf region this year. According to army commanders, the drills' purpose was to "show Iran's capability and determination to resist any possible aggression", which clearly referred to the U.S. and Israel.

During these exercises, Iran test fired several models of what it called "advanced missiles", including "Shahab-3" with a range of 2,000 km which could cover Israel and U.S. military base in the Mideast.

LITTLE CHANCE TO BREAK THE CURRENT IMPASSE

An obvious turning point for EU policy on Iran's nuclear case was the statement issued by EU foreign ministers on Oct. 17. Since that day, both European countries and the United States came to an agreement that Iran should be punished if it continues enrichment work. Even Russia, a longtime supporter of Tehran over its nuclear dispute, also highly evaluated it.

Obviously, uranium enrichment was an issue concerning Iran's national pride and the related activities have reached a considerable scale. As a consequence, there's little chance for Tehran to abandon the key process of its nuclear research. On the other side, it was almost impossible for Western countries to believe Iran's nuclear program was completely peaceful.

The diplomatic game between the two sides has inevitably moved in to a deadlock. In the near future, there's almost little chance for the international community and Iran to break the current impasse, and efforts to resolve Iran's nuclear issue would be a long time process.

[Rasputin]

وزير دفاع روسيه نسبت به اعمال تحريم عليه ايران هشدار داد.
به گزارش ايلنا به نقل از خبرگزارى فرانسه "سرگئى ايوانف" وزير دفاع روسيه در ديدار كارى از "آتن"، گفت: "نبايد ايران را به دليل عدم تعليق برنامه غني*سازى اورانيوم تحريم كنيم، زيرا اين امر مي*تواند به منازعه هسته*اى بلندمدت نظير كره*شمالى تبديل شود."
ايوانف افزود: "نبايد اوضاع را به سوى سناريوى كره*شمالى سوق دهيم."
وى تصريح كرد: |اگر شوراى امنيت سازمان*ملل*متحد قصد دارد ايران را تحريم كند، تحريم*ها بايد واقع*گرايانه و داراى محدوديت زمانى باشد در غير اين صورت احتمال حل ديپلماتيك يا سياسى اين معضل را از دست مي*دهيم."
براساس گزارش ديگری از خبرگزاری فرانسه, "كين گانگ" سخنگوى وزارت خارجه چين نيز بر لزوم صرف زمان بيشتر براى حل مسأله هسته*اى ايران از طريق ديپلماسى تأكيد كرد . گفت:
"مسأله هسته*اى ايران بايد به طور مسالمت*آميز و از طريق گفت*وگو و مذاكره حل و فصل شود."
گانگ در پاسخ به پرسشى درباره اظهارات سخنگوى وزارت خارجه آمريكا در مورد فرا رسيدن زمان رأي*گيرى در شوراى امنيت، گفت: "اقدامات شوراى امنيت بايد به حل صلح*آميز مسأله ايران منجر شود، بنابراين اعتقاد ما اين است كه بايد زمان بيشترى صرف ديپلماسى شود."
بنابراين گزارش، "شان مك*كورمك" پس از مذاكرات روز سه*شنبه كشورهاى 1+5 در پاريس، گفت كه اكنون زمان طرح مسأله هسته*اى ايران در شوراى امنيت سازمان *ملل *متحد فرا رسيده است.

[Rasputin]

Paris, 6 Dec. (AKI) - French foreign minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said Wednesday that Iran will have to face UN sanctions after it refused to suspend sensitive nuclear work - despite the failure of talks scheduled the previous day in Paris by six world powers to agree on a draft resolution imposing punitive measures on Tehran. "The issue on the application of sanctions remains open but there will be sanctions" provided for by article 41 of Chapter 7 of the United Nations Charter.

Talks on sanctions will move back to the United Nations in New York after the five permanent members of the UN Security Council - the US, Russia, China, France and Britain - plus Germany failed to agree in Paris Tuesday on a draft resolution to impose punitive measures. Key differences reportedly remain between Russia - which together with China has veto-holding power in the Council and opposes sanctions - and the West.

"We made substantive progress on the scope of the sanctions, targeting proliferation-sensitive activities. There remain several outstanding issues, on which we will reflect over the coming days," the French foreign ministry said in a statement.

France, Germany and Britain reportedly told Russia at the Paris negotiations that they want a UN resolution imposing sanctions on Iran to be approved by the Security Council by the end of the year, a European diplomat was quoted as saying by Reuters.

Talks on sanctions have stalled for months over the opposition of Russia and China, close commercial allies of Iran, to punitive measures.

Reports on Wednesday said Russia has now agreed to export bans on more technology and materials that could be used in Iran's nuclear nuclear programme but no deal has yet been reached on sanctions against people and organizations or on visa bans, the European diplomat told Reuters.

The sanctions would follow Iran's refusal to comply with a UN 31 August deadline demanding that it halt sensitive nuclear work the international community fears is aimed at building nuclear weapons. Iran has so far always refused to freeze nuclear enrichment work, which can be used to produce nuclear weapons, claiming its programme is solely for civilian use.

[Rasputin]

[Rasputin]

مقامات شوراى همكارى خليج فارس خواستار ادامه مذاكره ايران با قدرت*هاى جهان براى حل مسأله هسته*اى تهران شدند.
خبرگزارى رسمى كويت (كونا) گزارش داد: "مقامات شوراى همكارى خليج فارس يكشنبه از ايران خواستند تا به قوانين بين*المللى احترام بگذارد و منازعات را به طور مسالمت*آميز حل و فصل كند. آنها در پايان بيست*وهفتمين نشست شوراى همكارى خليج فارس در بيانيه*اى از ايران درخواست كردند تا براى حمايت از محيط*زيست، از معيارها و استانداردهاى بين*المللى پيروى كند."
در اين بيانيه آمده است: "اجازه دهيد بازرسان آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى همه تأسيسات هسته اى ايران را بازرسى كنند."
بنابراين گزارش، كشورهاى شوراى همكارى خليج فارس همچنين خواستار عادي*سازى خاورميانه و منطقه خليج فارس از تسليحات هسته*اى شدند. آنها بر حق كشورهاى منطقه براى دستيابى به دانش انرژى هسته*اى براى اهداف مسالمت*آميز تأكيد و اعلام كردند كه انرژى هسته*اى بايد مطابق پيمان*هاى بين*المللى مربوطه در اختيار همه كشورها قرار گيرد.
اين در حالى است كه مقامات كشورهاى همكارى خليج فارس به حق امارات*متحده*عربى بر جزاير سه*گانه تأكيد و از عدم پيشرفت در حل مسأله جزاير ابراز تأسف كردند.

[Rasputin]

Six oil-rich Gulf nations have said they are considering seeking nuclear technology for peaceful purposes.
Officials from Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE also urged a peaceful settlement to the crisis over Iran's nuclear programme.

The six Arab states said they were exploring the possibility of creating a shared nuclear programme.

They stressed their right to nuclear energy and emphasised that any programme would be peaceful.

Officials from the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) - a grouping of regional states - have been meeting in Riyadh.

A GCC statement released on Sunday said: "The states of the region have a right to possess nuclear technology for peaceful purposes."

'No threat'

GCC members have expressed concern over neighbouring Iran's refusal to suspend uranium enrichment, but the Saudi foreign minister denied that the move was in reaction to the Iran crisis.

"It is not a threat... It is an announcement so that there will be no misinterpretation for what we are doing," Prince Saud al-Faisal told reporters.

The US and other Western countries say that Iran is secretly developing nuclear weapons, a charge Iran denies.

The grouping of Gulf states said they wanted a region free of weapons of destruction and called on Israel to renounce nuclear weapons.

[Rasputin]

پس از نشست هفته گذشته مديران سياسى كشورهاى 1+5 در پاريس طى بيانيه اى اعلام شد كه ادامه مذاكرات در خصوص پيش نويس قطعنامه ضد ايرانى روز دوشنبه (ديروز) در نيويورك دنبال مى شود، كه تا لحظه چاپ اين گزارش، خبرى در اين خصوص منتشر نشد. در همين حال خبرگزارى فرانسه در آستانه اين نشست گزارش داد: وزير امور خارجه روسيه ديروز از پيش نويس جديد قطعنامه ضدايرانى غرب كه تحريم هايى را درباره برنامه هسته اى ايران اعمال مى كند، استقبال كرد. سرگئى لاوروف با بيان اين كه اين پيش نويس براساس پيشنهادهاى روسيه تنظيم شده است، تصريح كرد: اين پيش نويس متفاوت از نسخه اى است كه در ابتدا تنظيم شده بود و شامل تغييراتى براساس پيشنهادهاى روسيه است كه در آن نياز به وادار كردن ايران براى نشستن بر سر ميز مذاكره لحاظ شده است. وى همچنين تاكيد كرد: در اين پيش نويس مسئله احداث نيروگاه اتمى بوشهر مطرح نشده است.


همچنين برخى مقام هاى غربى روز گذشته ادعا كردند كه آمريكا و نزديك ترين همپيمانان غربى آن ممكن است به زودى خواستار راى گيرى درباره تحريم هاى شوراى امنيت سازمان ملل عليه ايران شوند. به گزارش آسوشيتدپرس اين مقام ها گفتند كه اين اقدام ممكن است انجام شود حتى اگر اين خطر وجود داشته باشد كه روسيه و چين احتمالا مانع اين اقدام ها شوند و آن را وتو كنند. وى افزود: آنها در حال گفتگو براى راى گيرى در نزديك*ترين زمان ممكن هستند.

همچنين يك مقام ديگر غربى با اشاره به اين كه روس ها هم اكنون حتى خواستار امتيازات بيشترى هستند، گفت: روسيه در عين حال مى خواهد هر نوع تحريمى را به سه ماه محدود كند و پس از آن اين تحريم ها مورد بازنگرى قرار گيرد. وى تصريح كرد: البته اين ها و ديگر درخواست ها در نتيجه نااميدى بسيارى است كه در اردوى غرب وجود دارد.

[Rasputin]

بنا بر گزارش گاردين 11 دسامبر، وزارت خارجه آمريکا در رابطه با پرونده هسته ای ايران يک نفر را برای چند ماه استخدام کرده است. وظيفه او اين است که در گوگل جمله " ايران و مساله هسته ای" را تايپ ميکند. او در نخستين دور جستجو نام 100 ديپلومات را در آورد که از برنامه هسته ای رژيم دفاع کرده و يا در اجلاس های آژانس در وين شرکت کرده اند. بعد اين ليست به 12 نفر تقليل يافت که ممکن است به سازمان ملل داده شود تا از سفر يا معامله آن ها جلوگيری شود.
روزنامه مزبور خبر را از قول واشينگتن پست نقل کرده که اضافه کرده است که قطع نامه سازمان ملل در نظر دارد به منجمد کردن دارايی های 11 موسسه و ده ها نفر از جمله برخی از سران سپاه و رئيس انرژی اتمی که مظنون به کمک به برنامه غنی سازی ممنوع شده ايران هستند، اقدام کند.

[Rasputin]

مذاکرات اعضای دائم شورای امنيت و آلمان در مورد قطعنامه تحريم ايران به علت خشم روسيه از اقدام آمريکا در مطرح کردن وضعيت ناگوار يک ناراضی اهل بلاروس در جلسه شورای امنيت ناگهان متوقف شده است.
مساله وضعيت حقوق بشر در بلاروس، کشوری که دارای روابط بسيار نزديک با مسکو است، در دستور کار شورای امنيت قرار ندارد.

بنابه گزارش ها اقدام ويليام برنچيک، ديپلمات آمريکايي، در پيش کشيدن مساله اعتصاب غذای 54 روزه الگساندر کوزولين، نامزد انتخابات رياست جمهوری بلاروس، با اعتراض شديد سفير روسيه در سازمان ملل، روبرو شد.

اعضای دائم شورای امنيت و آلمان قرار بود سه شنبه رايزنی های خود در مورد پيش نويس قطعنامه تحريم ايران را که ظاهرا در روز دوشنبه به پيشرفت هايی منجر شده بود ادامه دهند.

اما جلسه سه شنبه به علت جنجال مربوط به بلاروس از دستور کار خارج شد.

به گزارش آسوشيتدپرس يک مقام آمريکايی گفت واشنگتن احساس می کرد مهم است مساله آقای کوزولين را در شورای امنيت پيش بکشد چرا که به گفته وی آمريکا نگران آزادی بيان و دمکراسي، به خصوص در قلب اروپاست.

الگساندر کوزولين که روز سه شنبه به اعتصاب خود پايان داد از ماه مارس پس از سازماندهی تظاهراتی عليه دولت بلاروس زندانی بوده است. او يکی از سه نامزدی بود که پرزيدنت لوکاشنکو را در انتخابات رياست جمهوری به چالش کشيدند.

الگساندر لوکاشنکو، رئيس جمهور بلاروس که از سال 1994 در قدرت بوده است، در آن انتخابات پيروز اعلام شد. وی متهم به نقض حقوق بشر و سرکوب مخالفان است.

آقای کوزولين به خاطر سازمان دادن تظاهراتی "غيرمجاز" به پنج سال و نيم حبس محکوم شده است و طی اين اعتصاب غذای طولانی به حکم خود اعتراض داشت.

گفتگوهای مربوط به ايران

نمايندگان آمريکا، روسيه، چين، بريتانيا و فرانسه به علاوه آلمان روز دوشنبه در مقر سازمان ملل در نيويورک نشستی برای بررسی راه های تحريم ايران به خاطر خودداری آن کشور از معلق کردن بخش های حساس برنامه اتمی اش برگزار کردند.

پيش نويس تازه نمونه کمرنگ تر سند اوليه ای است که فرانسه، بريتانيا و آلمان در اواسط ماه اکتبر ارائه کرده بودند و با اعتراضات شديد مسکو و پکن روبرو شد.

اين سه کشور روز جمعه (8 دسامبر) در حرکتی برای قانع کردن روسيه، پيش نويس اوليه را اصلاح کرده و از ابعاد تحريم های مورد نظر کاستند.

متن اوليه تقريبا کليه کالاهای مرتبط با برنامه اتمی و موشکی ايران از جمله اجناس دارای کاربرد دوگانه نظامی و غيرنظامی را هدف می گرفت اما بنابه گزارش ها در متن تازه، تحريم ها تنها به حساس ترين مواد و فن آوری های ساخت بمب محدود می شود.

ويتالی چرکين، نماينده روسيه در سازمان ملل، بعد از ديدار غيررسمی روز دوشنبه در نيويورک از تغييرات اعمال شده در پيش نويس استقبال کرده و نسبت به معامله ای در مورد آن تا پيش از پايان سال جاری ميلادی ابراز خوشبينی کرده بود.

ايران تابستان گذشته از تن دادن به قطعنامه شورای امنيت که خواستار تعليق غنی سازی اورانيوم و ساير بخش های حساس برنامه اتمی اش تا روز 31 اوت بود سر باز زد که تنظيم پيش نويس قطعنامه ای تازه برای تنبيه اين کشور را به دنبال داشت

[Rasputin]

Is resistance to Iran futile?

Over the weekend, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad took to his bully pulpit yet again to bluster about his country's expanding nuclear program. He has elevated defiance of the West to an art.

He announced that Iran has begun installing 3,000 centrifuges, a huge expansion of its uranium enrichment program, bringing that nation closer to what is likely its ultimate goal: building a weapon. He also said the world was caving to Tehran's demands that it be allowed to continue its nuclear program. "Resistance of the Iranian nation in the past year forced them to retreat tens of steps over Iran's nuclear issue," he was quoted as saying.
Ahmadinejad's mantra could well be the famous "Star Trek: The Next Generation" line: Resistance is futile.

So far, he seems to be right. The UN's "deadline" for Iran to stand down from its nuclear program passed ... when was that? Oh yes: four months ago. Aug. 31, to be exact.

After Iran spurned any number of meek pleas by the Europeans to please, please keep talking, no matter what, there's been a stalemate at the UN Security Council over whether and how to punish Iran. Is there anything quite so pitiful as watching the world's most powerful nations deadlocked week after week over Iran's brazen defiance?

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice says the U.S. is making progress on a sanctions deal. But what's the definition of progress? If the reports are true, those sanctions will be so watered down as to be meaningless to Iran, riding high on oil wealth and meddling with impunity in Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere in the Middle East.

If and when sanctions come, don't expect much. The choice, if those reports are true, will be whether the council slaps Iran on the wrist lightly or less lightly. Blame the Russians and Chinese, who are protecting billions in investments in oil and trade with Tehran. Neither wants to upset Iran by punishing it too strongly for defying the Security Council's unequivocal command to freeze its nuclear program.

The repercussions of this failure of will are already taking shape. On Sunday, Arab leaders meeting in Saudi Arabia announced they intend to begin a joint nuclear energy development program. A few months ago, Egypt declared that it was exploring the potential for developing nuclear energy.

It's not that these Arab countries are suddenly eager to develop nuclear power. But they don't trust the UN--or the U.S.--to stop Iran. The real message from the Riyadh parley is a warning to the U.S. and the Security Council that a nuclear Iran threatens not only the West and Israel, but also countries like Egypt and Saudi Arabia. A nuclear Iran would gain immense power in the region, a power so great that at least six Arab countries have reportedly sought to develop nuclear capabilities as a counterbalance. A nuclear arms race in the Middle East. Is there a scarier phrase?

Even stronger sanctions may not stop Tehran. A nation that holds a conference for "scholars" who dispute the Holocaust is not a nation that worries what others think.

The International Atomic Energy Agency reported that last month it had found unexplained traces of plutonium, another path to bomb building, on containers at an Iranian nuclear waste facility. That suggests a clandestine bombmaking program. But don't expect any explanations soon. So far, the Security Council hasn't given Iran a sliver of a reason to start cooperating.

[Rasputin]

Iran nukes prompt concerns within Mideast

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad boasts that world powers are getting weak knees about stopping his country's nuclear program.
Is the fiery leader right?

The United Nations Security Council is considering a watered-down resolution of sanctions aimed at punishing Iran for pursuing its uranium- enrichment program - a process that could lead to development of a nuclear weapon. But with the United States seemingly occupied with Iraq, and with Russia and China still balking at any action that would suggest "humiliation" of a valued trade partner, doubts are rising over how much the Europe-sponsored resolution will be worth.

"Nothing has changed for the better with respect to this resolution and what it says about determination to stop a very dangerous scenario before it gets out of control," says Gal Luft, codirector of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security in Washington. "The Iranians are moving ahead. The world is acting in ways that reduce the chance of having a real impact on that - and countries in the region are taking note of both."

Indeed, as prospects wane for tough international action against Iran, some countries in the region are expressing alarm at the pace of Tehran's progress toward mastery of the nuclear cycle. And they seem to be saying, "If the international community is not going to do something about it, we will." Such an attitude is raising fears of a Middle East arms race.

Noting that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries announced over the weekend their interest in developing a cooperative nuclear-energy program, former Middle East negotiator Dennis Ross said, "Who is that message for? Let me tell you, it's not for Iran. It was for us."

Ambassador Ross, now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, also said at an event Tuesday that the Saudis are telling the US, "Stop them - or that [nuclear power] is the way we go, too."

The regional warnings on Iran come amid reports that the Saudis have also warned the US that they might be compelled to enter on the side of the Sunnis in any Iraq that the US had abandoned to civil war.

The countries that make up the Gulf Cooperation Council are Sunni powers expressing concerns over the rise of Shiite Iran, Mr. Luft says, which adds one more worrisome ripple to the signs of growing Sunni-Shiite tensions in Iraq and Lebanon. "They are saying that if there is to be a Shiite bomb, then they will need a Sunni bomb to counterbalance it," he says. "They don't want that, but if their neighbor Iran goes nuclear in this climate of deepening Shiite-Sunni divisions, they don't see how they could sit aside and not match it."

The Security Council draft resolution circulated this week by France, Britain, and Germany forgoes the proposed blanket sanctions against Iran that drew a Russian rebuff. Instead, it outlines sanctions focused on the country's uranium-enrichment process - targeting Iran's atomic-energy agency, facilities involved in the uranium-enrichment program, and individuals and companies associated with the program.

The resolution removes any reference to Iran's first nuclear power plant at Bushehr, while focusing on a pilot enrichment facility at Natanz. That change satisfies one Russian demand, but Russian officials have held out for additional changes.

If the resolution is passed by the Security Council before the end of the year, as some diplomats expect, it would be nine months after the international community first demanded that Iran cease its uranium enrichment or face tough trade and financial sanctions. By early next year, it will have been two years since the Bush administration deferred to European diplomacy to try to halt a program that Mr. Ahmadinejad says is purely peaceful but that European officials have concluded is designed to deliver nuclear weapons.

Some analysts say the US is so preoccupied with Iraq - and tied up in debate over whether it should engage Iran in diplomatic efforts to stabilize Iraq - that it has weakened its determination to stop a nuclear-armed Iran from emerging. They note that the resignation of John Bolton, US ambassador to the UN, who is a fierce opponent of nuclear proliferation to dangerous "rogue states," has lowered the US profile in the struggle with Iran at a crucial moment.

Others note that while the US goes along with diplomatic efforts to curtail Iran's nuclear progress, President Bush continues to insist that "no options are off the table" in terms of guaranteeing that Iran never develops the bomb. They speculate that if Iran continues its nuclear march, the US could take military action to at least seriously damage its program before the end of Mr. Bush's term, claiming it had favored diplomatic action until the risk dictated another course.

In the meantime, Iran claims it has neared mastery of the nuclear cycle, from mining of uranium ore to its enrichment into fuel for nuclear facilities. Last weekend, Ahmadinejad announced his country had "begun" the installation of 3,000 centrifuges - which, if true, could be a major step toward large-scale uranium enrichment. He used the announcement to needle his international opponents, crowing that "resistance of the Iranian nation" has spurred the nuclear progress, even while forcing the world "to retreat tens of steps over Iran's nuclear issue," according to Iran's Fars news agency.

Nuclear experts say it is hard to say how much of this is "bluster" or to what degree it reflects real progress in the Iranian program. "A lot depends on what a phrase like 'beginning to install' really means," says David Kay, a security specialist at the Potomac Institute in Arlington, Va. "I don't think anyone would say they are 'mastering the fuel cycle,' which was another of [Ahmadinejad's] claims."

Mr. Kay notes, for example, that what is known about Iran's initial centrifuge "cascade," as the high-speed facility allowing uranium enrichment is called, suggests "they are still at a very, very preliminary stage" in their capabilities. "From what we hear the facility is down as much as it is up," he says. All this suggests Iran is still at least four years away from the ability to build a bomb, he says.

Yet as rudimentary as the program may still be, Luft says Iran is taking important but little-noticed steps to weather even weakened international sanctions. In a new report, his institute says Iran is acting to address its "Achilles' heel" - its lack of gasoline-refining capacity - by expediting construction of two new refineries, signing gasoline import contracts with "friendly countries" like Venezuela, and undertaking a crash conversion program to convert 1.2 million vehicles a year from gasoline to natural gas. Iran has the world's second-largest natural-gas reserve.

"They are taking all kinds of innovative measures, and showing by the high priority they are giving these measures that they do not intend to change course and capitulate on their nuclear program," Luft says. "It's become a matter of national pride."

In a similar way, he says that the Gulf countries are not talking about a nuclear program for energy reasons - but with national security in mind. "If you sit on top of the world's biggest pile of oil and gas, the last thing you need is nuclear energy," he says. "They would be doing this for security interests, not for energy."

[Rasputin]

نماينده انگليس در سازمان ملل گفت كه توافق درباره قطعنامه عليه ايران در شوراى امنيت در حال حصول است با اين حال روسيه هم*چنان با اعمال منع سفر مقامات ايرانى مخالف است.

به گزارش خبرگزارى دانشجويان ايران (ايسنا) به نقل از خبرگزارى رويتر، نمايندگان كشورهاى 1+5 گفتند كه مذاكرات روز جمعه درباره قطعنامه ضدايرانى پيشرفت*هايى داشته است.

امير جونز پري، نماينده*ى انگليس در سازمان ملل افزود: فكر مي*كنم كه توافقى در حال حصول است و درباره همه عناصر درخواست شده توافقى در حال شكل*گيرى است.

وى در جمع خبرنگاران با ابراز اميدوارى نسبت به اين كه تا روز سه*شنبه توافق براى تنظيم متن نهايى پيش نويس قطعنامه صورت گيرد گفت: بنابراين راي*گيرى مي*تواند طى هفته آتى ميلادى در ميان 15 عضو شوراى امنيت سازمان ملل انجام شود.

اين در حالى است كه ويتالى چوركين، نماينده روسيه در سازمان ملل گفت: هر چند كه ما در حال پيشرفت هستيم اما هنوز مسايل آماده نيست.

وى افزود:* ما پيشرفت نسبى حاصل كرده*ايم، اما هنوز چيزهايى هستند كه بايد درباره*شان صحبت شود؛ بنابراين ما به پايتخت*ها بر مي*گرديم و نشستى ديگر روز دوشنبه صبح برگزار خواهد شد.

چوركين گفته است كه با اعمال تحريم عليه 11 شركت و نهاد و هم چنين 12 شخصيت مرتبط با برنامه*هاى هسته*يى و موشكى ايران مخالف است.

از سوى ديگر آلجاندرو وولف، نماينده موقت آمريكا در سازمان ملل گفت كه آمريكا تاكيد دارد كه منع سفر عليه مقامات ايرانى اعمال شود، ما مي*خواهيم كه راي*گيرى هر چه زودتر انجام و اين قطعنامه تنظيم شود.

همچنين ژان مار دولاسابلير، نماينده فرانسه در سازمان ملل گفت كه پيشرفت*هاى نسبى صورت گرفته، اما فكر كنم هفته بعد بتوانيم آن را انجام دهيم.

[Rasputin]

نماينده ايران در آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى گفت ايران مي*تواند در صورت حمله تاسيسات هسته*اى خود را مخفى كرده و به كار خود ادامه دهد.
به گزارش خبرگزارى فرانسه، على اصغر سلطانيه روز جمعه در سمينارى در وين تصريح كرد: ,ما كشور بزرگى داريم، يك ميليون و 600 هزار متر مربع و فضاى اينچنينى براى دستگاههاى سانتريفوژ كافى است.,
وى در نشستى كه از سوى موسسه اتريشى امور بين*الملل ترتيب داده شده بود، افزود: ,دستگاههاى سانتريفوژ مي*تواند ساخته شده، عمل كرده و مي*تواند در هر جايى نصب شده و حفاظت شود.,
اين اظهارات سلطانيه در حالى بيان شد كه بحث*ها در شوراى امنيت سازمان ملل در نيويورك درباره اعمال تحريم*هاى احتمالى عليه ايران در جريان است.
كارشناسان هشدار داده*اند حمله به تاسيسات هسته*اى ايران مي*تواند تنها منجر به مخفى شدن برنامه هسته*اى ايران شود و اظهارات سلطانيه نيز جزو اولين موارد تاييد چنين مسئله*اى است.
سلطانيه تاكيد كرد: ,ايران فناورى و دانش غني*سازى اورانيوم را در اختيار دارد و تحت نظارت آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى است. بنابراين اگر آمريكاييها عجله كرده و قطعنامه*هايى را تصويب كنند و بگويند بياييد حمله نظامى براى توقف ايران انجام دهيم،*اشتباه مي*كنند.,
وى افزود: ,ايران يك جزيره كوچك نيست كه با يك كاترينا محو شود.,
در تهران نيز على لاريجاني، مذاكره*كننده ارشد هسته*اى ايران هشدار داد قدرت*هاى غربى در صورت اعمال تحريم*ها ممكن است با ,اقدامات دردناكى, توسط جمهورى اسلامى ايران روبرو شوند.
وى افزود: ,اگر هدف غرب اين است كه عزم ما را با گرفتن حقوق هسته*ايمان خدشه*دار كند، ما مجبور مي*شويم اقدامات دردناكى را عليه غرب اتخاذ كنيم.,
لاريجانى تاكيد كرد: ,اگر آنها مي*خواهند از سلاح تهديد*ها استفاده كنند، بايد انتظار اقداماتى را داشته باشند.,
سلطانيه ادامه داشت: ,حفظ اين وضعيت عاقلانه نيست همه دستگاههاى سانتريفوژ ايران تحت نظارت 24 ساعته دوربين*هاى آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى هستند و تقريبا هر هفته يا هر دو هفته يكبار بازرسان در آنجا حضور دارند و همه چيز در شفافيت كامل است. بگذاريم اين شرايط ادامه پيدا كند.,