Nuclear Crisis

[Rasputin]

وزير امور خارجه جمهورى اسلامى ايران، گفت*وگو را تنها گزينه حل و فصل مسائل مربوط به پرونده هسته*اى ايران دانست و گفت:"ايران از برنامه هسته*اى خود كوتاه نخواهد آمد و اين خواسته همه ايراني*هاست نه تنها دولت آن."

به گزارش فارس، منوچهر متكى در مصاحبه روزنامه اماراتى الخليج با وى گفت تهران هنوز هم گفتگو را تنها گزينه حل و فصل همه مسائل مربوط به برنامه هسته*اى خود مي*داند.
به نوشته الخليج، متكى كه براى ارائه لايحه بودجه به همراه محمود احمدي*نژاد رئيس*جمهور ايران به پارلمان رفته بود گفت: "تهران از آغاز اعلام كرده از برنامه هسته*اى خود كوتاه نخواهد آمد و اين خواسته همه ايراني*ها شده نه تنها دولت آن."
اين روزنامه در ادامه نوشت: "احمدي*نژاد در پارلمان كشورش گفت قطار هسته*اى ايران به سرعت حركت مي*كند و هيچ كس نخواهد توانست آن را متوقف كند حتى اگر ده*ها قطعنامه بين*المللى صادر شود."
وى در اين مصاحبه درباره تحركات آمريكا و غرب گفت:* "هدف آمريكا از فشار بر ايران پنهان*كردن شكست خود در عراق است به ويژه آنكه گزارش بيكر ـ هملتون نشان داد بوش بايد از منطقه خارج شود اما او در تلاش است با تقويت جمهوري*خواهان از اين مساله و فجايع به بار آمده بگذرد."
وزير امور خارجه ايران در ادامه درباره ديدار كاندوليزا رايس وزير امور خارجه آمريكا و وزيران كشورهاى عضو شوراى همكارى خليج*فارس، مصر و اردن گفت: "اين ديدار به خاطر شكست دولت آمريكا و سياست بوش در عراق صورت گرفته است."
متكى افزود: "ما به تلاش*هايمان با اين كشورها ادامه داديم و حركتى ديپلماتيك براى بيان ديدگاهمان صورت خواهد گرفت."
وى در ادامه گفت: "برخى وزيران امور خارجه كشورهاى عربى هفته آينده به تهران خواهند آمد تا درباره بسيارى از مسائل منطقه*اى گفتگو كنند."

[Rasputin]

يک نماينده مجلس ايران می گويد از ورود سی و هشت بازرس آژانس بين المللی انرژی اتمی به اين کشور جلوگيری شده است.
علاءالدين بروجردي، رئيس كميسيون امنيت ملی و سياست خارجی مجلس ايران، در گفتگو به خبرگزاری ايسنا، اين اقدام را 'اولين گام' در راستای مصوبه اخير مجلس برای 'ايجاد محدوديت در ارتباط با آژانس انرژی اتمی' ناميده است.

در عين حال، منوچهر متکي، وزير امور خارجه ايران، قبول يا رد بازرسان را "اقدامی قانونی و در چارچوب ضوابط آژانس بين المللی انرژی اتمی" دانسته و گفته در مورد مليت اين بازرسان در هفته آينده خبررسانی خواهد شد.

نمايندگان مجلس ايران در حالی از ورود شماری از بازرسان آژانس انرژی اتمی جلوگيری می کنند که حدود يک ماه از مهلت دو ماهه شورای امنيت به ايران برای تعليق فعاليت های مرتبط با غنی سازی اورانيوم سپری شده است.

اعضای شورای امنيت سازمان ملل در آخرين روزهای سال گذشته ميلادی به اتفاق آراء قطعنامه ای را عليه ايران تصويب کردند که کشورهای عضو سازمان ملل را فروش تجهيزات مرتبط با برنامه هسته ای ايران منع می کند و سرمايه های افراد و شرکت های مرتبط با اين برنامه ها را در بانک های خارج از ايران مسدود می کند.

مصوبه مجلس ايران برای ايجاد محدوديت در همکاری با آژانس بين المللی انرژی اتمی در واقع واکنش جمهوری اسلامی به صدور قطعنامه شورای امنيت بود که مقام های ايرانی از بدو صدور آنرا رد کرده و 'بی اعتبار' دانسته اند.

'گسترش دامنه تحريم ها'

روز گذشته محمود احمدی نژاد، رئيس جمهور ايران، به هنگام حضور در مجلس اين کشور برای تقديم لايحه بودجه بار ديگر از عزم کشورش برای ادامه غنی سازی خبر داد و گفت قطعنامه شورای امنيت 'مرده به دنيا آمد.'


وزير امور خارجه آمريکا هشدار داد تحريم های شديدتری عليه ايران وضع خواهد شد

اين در حالی است که در روزهای اخير مقام های آمريکايی لحن تندتری در مورد ايران پيدا کرده اند و تحرکات نظامی ايالات متحده در منطقه خليج فارس برخی از سياسيون داخل ايران را در مورد قصد آمريکا و احتمال حمله اين کشور نگران کرده است.

يکشنبه شب کاندوليزا رايس، وزير امور خارجه آمريکا، هشدار داد کشورش تحريم های شديدتری را عليه ايران وضع خواهد کرد اما صراحتا به تحريم صنعت نفت و گاز ايران اشاره نکرد.

او در مصاحبه ای با مجله آلمانی اشپيگل به شرکت های اروپايی که با ايران داد و ستد دارند هشدار داد پيامدهای تحريم های بيشتر بين المللی عليه ايران را مد نظر قرار دهند.

خانم رايس تاکيد کرد که کاخ سفيد درصدد گسترش دامنه جنگ عراق به قلمروی ايران نيست اما توضيح داد آمريکا با آنچه مداخله ايران در عراق می داند برخورد خواهد کرد.

[Rasputin]

[Rasputin]

VIENNA (AFP) - The UN watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency has sharply answered Iran, asking it to reverse its ban on 38 IAEA inspectors from working in the country, a spokeswoman told AFP.

The IAEA "requested Iranian authorities to reconsider their decision," agency spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said Thursday, in the international standoff over Iran's suspected nuclear weapons program.

A diplomat said despite the diplomatic language it still meant the IAEA was "pushing back" as "no country has ever de-designated so many inspectors in one go.

"This is not the type of action that facilitates resolving issues," said the diplomat, who asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter.

The United States had Monday denounced Iran's barring some inspectors as an attempt to "dictate terms" to the international community, in comments by State Department spokesman Sean McCormack.

Fleming said the IAEA sent a letter Wednesday calling for all 38 inspectors to be reinstated after an announcement in Iran Monday that the Islamic Republic was blocking them from entering the country.

The strong IAEA response comes even as Iran has sent a letter to the agency asking for the removal of one of the most senior officials overseeing the IAEA's inspection of the Iranian nuclear program, diplomats told AFP.

Iran says the program is a peaceful effort to generate electricity but the United States claims Tehran is hiding work on developing atomic weapons.

Iran had banned Christian Charlier, who is Belgian, last April from entering the country in retaliation for alleged leaks to the press.

Iran has in recent months said it wants Charlier no longer even to see reports on Iran at the agency's safeguards division at IAEA headquarters in Vienna, a diplomat said.

The Iranians do not want Charlier "to see anything on Iran, period," the diplomat said.

The IAEA "received a letter from Iran, which has not been revealed to the press, vehemently protesting that Charlier is still responsible for Iran's nuclear file," another diplomat said.

This diplomat said Charlier is "known for his strict and firm attitude regarding Iran and he is frustrating Iran's efforts to conceal everything that concerns advancing the nuclear project."

The letter was confirmed by yet another diplomat who said Iran had sent it over the past few months and had repeated the request with personal appeals to ElBaradei.

But IAEA officials told Iran that while it "has the right not to give visas, the IAEA decides what it does in Vienna," the diplomat said.

In December 2006, the Iranian parliament had adopted a bill requiring the government to revise its cooperation with the IAEA in retaliation after the UN Security Council that month passed a resolution imposing sanctions on Iran for its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment work.

Fleming had Monday said there remained however "a sufficient number of inspectors designated for Iran and the IAEA is able to perform its inspection activities" under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told reporters on Monday that "any country had the right to refuse admission to inspectors", a position confirmed by IAEA diplomats.

Last July, ElBaradei said that 200 inspectors were charged with investigating Iran's nuclear activities, but did not stay permanently in Iran.

Iran has already caused problems for inspectors by delaying some visas and restricting access to certain nuclear installations.

A diplomat close to the IAEA said that only "a few" of the 38 inspectors banned this week "are actually working on Iran, the rest are not."

The banned inspectors are from Britain, France, Germany -- the three EU countries which have led nuclear talks with Iran -- as well as Canada and the United States, the diplomat said.

The diplomat said the ban "certainly hurts the IAEA's flexibility about using its resources to the maximum as there is a potential restriction in its numbers."

[Rasputin]

Iran has demanded the removal of the UN official in charge of inspecting the country's nuclear programme, diplomats have said.
The official, Chris Charlier, has already been banned from entering Iran.

Iran has the right to reject inspectors from the UN's nuclear agency, the IAEA, that it does not want.

There are growing international fears Iran is trying to build nuclear weapons. Iran says its nuclear programme is for peaceful uses only.

In a letter to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) headquarters in Vienna, Iran's government is reported to have also demanded that Mr Charlier not be allowed to see any reports on Iran.

'Timeout'

The move follows a ban on 38 inspectors from four countries that Tehran imposed on Monday.

The inspectors are from key Western nations that had pushed for UN sanctions against Iran for refusing to stop enriching uranium.

The head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, said there will still enough inspectors left in Iran to do the job.

He called for a "timeout" in the standoff over Iran's nuclear programme, saying "Iran should stop enriching uranium and the international community should take a timeout from implementing sanctions".

Iran has announced plans to install 3,000 centrifuges at its Natanz nuclear facility. This would be a massive increase in its potential to produce enriched uranium.

Centrifuges are the machines that spin uranium gas to enrich it to low levels for fuel and much higher levels for nuclear weapons.

[Rasputin]

There is so much smoke around the Iranian Mullahs' bomb that makes Tehran's smog feel like a fresh ocean breeze, by comparison. Here is a partial list of views about the Mullahs, their capabilities and intentions about the bomb affair. The Mullahs:

* Will never dare to use the bomb, even if they had it. To do so would be suicidal.

* Are years away from anything resembling a credible bomb, in any quantities.

* They lack the technological skills needed to make a workable bomb.

* Don't have the means of hitting Israel with the bomb, their professed favorite target.

* Want the bomb for defensive purposes only.

* Would never hand the bomb over to proxy terrorists.

* Are using this whole bomb thing as a ploy to rally the populace and survive.

* Are visionary patriots planning for a future when the oil dries up.

* Are environmentalists aiming to curb global warming caused by the use of fossil fuel.

* Are striving to join the nuclear club for its prestige.

And on, and on, and on, goes the litany. I believe, based on facts rather than wishful thinking, that every one of the above assertions, as well as all other similar dismissive arguments are both false and fraught with danger, because all the above arguments are confounded by various amounts of denial.

Psychological denial is a common quirk of the human mind. People use denial to distort, even refute reality, when accepting it is too threatening to them. Alcoholics are habitual users of denial, a major tranquilizer of the mind. The alcoholic will adamantly deny having any problem with alcohol and continues to drink, even in the face of irrefutable contrary evidence. Denial is resorted to by both individuals and groups, and can be just as deadly for both.

Perhaps the most compelling dismissive argument is that the Mullahs would never dare to use the bomb, since it would be suicidal to do so. This argument is just as flawed as the rest. The "mutual deterrence" argument may work in state-to-state confrontations. It apparently has worked in the past and the hope is that it will work in the future. However, the mutual deterrence argument fails when a non-state entity is the adversary. The Mullahs don't have to lob a bomb at Israel or at anyone else to inflict huge harm. They can pursue their cause of death and destruction by simply providing their killers with dirty bombs in a suitcase. Given the Mullahs' fanaticism and Machiavellian nature, they would come up with a myriad of clever schemes to achieve their objectives.

Consider dirty bombs. They are easy to make, are portable, can kill as well as make a city uninhabitable, without leaving a "finger print." The Mullahs can go to work then turn "innocently" to the international community for help them- to find a group of rogue radicals, so they claim, who had penetrated their facilities and have made off with a loot of radioactive stuff.

It is not as if events like this have never happened in the past. Deadly stolen radioactive materials have found their way to the black market on a number of occasions. The world would respond in panic, yet with its usual arthritic sluggishness searching for the miscreants. Given how clumsy and disorganized the world's intelligence community is, the prospect of acting expeditiously, much less apprehending the "thieves" is not very encouraging. This is particularly the case when the Mullahs themselves would have a short leash on the "thieves," to hide them and deploy them only with the greatest of care.

Iran's ruling Mullahs are clustered around major factions such as the conservatives, the moderates, and the so-called reformists. Yet, the differences among these factions are tactical rather than strategic. One and all share the same overarching goal of defeating the "Crusader-Zionists" by any and all methods possible; bringing about the "end of the world" Armageddon; and, thereby creating the requisite conditions for the appearance of the Hidden Imam, the Mahdi, to assume his rule of the world.

Therefore, it is Cartrisque (foolish risk-taking a la Jimmy Carter's throwing the nation's lot with the Mullahs during the 1979 Iranian Revolution) to overlook the fact that it is Islam, irrespective of any and all considerations, that poses a deadly threat to the world. Choosing one faction over another is no choice at all.

What is the likelihood that the ruling Mullahs will actually use the bomb? If they remain in power long enough to have it, they are very likely to use it, in one form or another. At the very least, they use the bomb for blackmail and intimidation in the region. Not even the all-out nuclear exchange can be ruled out. Islam is a religion centered on death with the faithful eyes fixed on the afterlife and its promised eternal pleasures. If the faithful kills, he goes to Allah's paradise; if he gets killed, he goes to Allah's paradise.

The Mullahs' claim that they are pursuing the nuclear program to meet the country's energy need could only fool the most gullible-denial type. Why is it that the Mullahs invest nothing at all in stopping the leak of more than six percent of the precious oil they pump out? For every 100 barrels, six barrels of Iran's irreplaceable national treasure dissipates at the wellhead. Yet, they spend billions of dollars to harness nuclear energy. Just as troubling is the fact that Iran sits on one of the world's most dangerous earthquake fault lines. Building nuclear plants on sites such as the one in Bushehr is absolute insanity.

Speaking of insanity, Ahmadinejad, the Monkey, comes to mind. He is dismissed as being a zany fanatic who shouldn't be taken seriously for his bomb-rattling threats. But this type of dismissiveness can prove deadly. Recall that even a multi-billionaire former president of Iran Rafsanjani, a man seen by many as moderate and a shrewd live-let-live type, has publicly announced that a single bomb would finish off Israel while the Muslims would suffer a setback from which it can easily recover.

The Mullahs are proven vicious mass killers. They summarily executed tens of thousands of Iranian dissidents. They had no qualms at sending thousands of children to clear the minefields ahead of their tanks during the 80-89 war with Iraq; and, they have thousands of "martyrs" brainwashed and prepared to serve as bomb mules to be dispatched to any place in the world.

Sadly, once again it is the peak of "Me First" time with American politicians. Like sharks, they are circling the "bleeding" lame President, busily snipping at him and hoping to take his place. In the meantime the real enemy, Islamofascism is forging ahead toward its goal of dominating the world.

I have been warning that it is a deadly miscalculation to engage in infighting, and sit and wait this emerging catastrophe out. It is little more than an exercise in denial to believe that nothing bad will happen, and that the corrupt inept Mullahs will likely shoot themselves in the foot instead of wreaking havoc on the world. I also keep pleading that we should forthwith help the Iranian democratic oppositions send the death-bearer Mullahs back to their mosques. It is the free world's best and urgent option.

What sane person would want to take a chance to wait and see if the mad Mullahs, once they have the bomb, would use it or not?

[Rasputin]

VIENNA (AFP) - The United Nations nuclear chief called for a "timeout" in the showdown over Iran's nuclear ambitions, with the UN suspending sanctions and Tehran halting uranium enrichment at the same time.

"Iran should stop enriching uranium and the international community should take a timeout from implementing sanctions," Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in Switzerland.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, ElBaradei proposed a face-saving solution in which the two steps take place simultaneously instead of in sequence.

He added that an escalation of the crisis, and possible war, must be avoided, in comments reported to AFP at IAEA headquarters in Vienna.

"We need to reverse course because we are heading into a crash course," ElBaradei told reporters. "The idea that there's a military solution is absolutely bonkers."

The UN Security Council has imposed sanctions to get Iran to stop uranium enrichment, which makes fuel for civilian nuclear reactors but also the explosive core of atom bombs.

Iran says its nuclear program is a peaceful effort to generate electricity but the United States claims Tehran is hiding work on developing atomic weapons.

The Security Council has said that if Iran freezes enrichment, then sanctions could be lifted.

But Iran is planning to increase its enrichment capacity by installing 3,000 centrifuges, the machines which enrich uranium, at an underground facility in Natanz, where it is already running two pilot cascades of 164-centrifuges each at a pilot site above-ground.

ElBaradei is to report to the Security Council by February 21 on whether Iran has suspended enrichment.

If it has not, sanctions could be tightened and there is increased speculation that either the United States or Israel could eventually decide to bomb Iran in order to stop it from making nuclear weapons.

ElBaradei has repeatedly said the crisis must be resolved through negotiation, with Iran guaranteeing that it is not an atom bomb threat and the West taking into consideration Tehran's legitimate security concerns.

ElBaradei said Friday: "There is no reason for Iran to feed nuclear material into enrichment cascades. They can take time out to build confidence.

"We have three to eight years (before Iran can build an atom bomb), which gives us a lot of time to reflect."

Iran's face-off with the IAEA went up a notch this week when the agency sharply answered Iran, asking it in a letter to reverse its ban on 38 IAEA inspectors from working in the country, a spokeswoman told AFP.

A diplomat said the IAEA was "pushing back" as "no country has ever de-designated so many inspectors in one go."

The strong IAEA response came even as Iran sent a letter of its own to the agency asking for the removal of the official overseeing the IAEA's inspection of the Iranian nuclear program, diplomats told AFP.

Iran had banned Christian Charlier, who is Belgian, last April from entering the country in retaliation for alleged leaks to the press.

Iran now wants Charlier no longer even to see reports on Iran at the agency's safeguards division, a diplomat said.

The IAEA "received a letter from Iran, which has not been revealed to the press, vehemently protesting that Charlier is still responsible for Iran's nuclear file," another diplomat said.

This diplomat said Charlier was "known for his strict and firm attitude regarding Iran and he is frustrating Iran's efforts to conceal everything that concerns advancing the nuclear project."

The letter was confirmed by another diplomat who said Iran had sent it last week.

But IAEA officials told Iran that while it "has the right not to give visas, the IAEA decides what it does in Vienna," the diplomat said.

[Rasputin]

As the Feb. 21 deadline for Iran to halt its uranium enrichment programme fast approaches, both Iran and the West are scrambling to prepare themselves for all possible moves by the other side.

A scenario causing some discomfort among decision-makers in the George W. Bush administration would entail Iran succumbing to the Security Council request -- but only after first giving its nuclear programme a decisive push.

After more than two years of negotiations, inspections, threats and counter threats, the Security Council finally put the Western demand for Iran to halt its uranium enrichment programme into a legally binding Chapter VII Security Council resolution. With a deadline of Feb. 21, UNSCR 1737 requires a suspension of "all enrichment-related and reprocessing activities, including research and development, to be verified by the IAEA," the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Though the sanctions imposed on Iran are relatively benign, markets in Iran have reacted negatively to the development and pragmatists in Iran are pressuring the country's top decision-maker, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to find a face-saving way out of this situation before the standoff with the West escalates further.

This has proven a difficult task. Khamenei is suspicious of the intent of Western governments and has little faith in their willingness to reciprocate potential Iranian concessions. In his view, sources close to his office reveal, a hardline stance against the West should be tried since the more conciliatory policies pursued by former President Mohammad Khatami failed to produce any gains for Iran.

The counter-argument, presented by the pragmatists, goes that the softer policy helped avoid a costly and potentially unmanageable confrontation with the West.

According to Nasser Hadian, a political analyst close to the Reformist camp, Iran will likely announce the connection and operation of six cascades of centrifuges within the next few weeks. Sources familiar with the debate in Tehran say that Iran is considering using the anniversary of the Iranian Revolution on Feb. 11 to announce this decision and celebrate it widely.

By doing so, Hadian explains, the Iranian government would become psychologically and politically prepared to accept a compromise on its enrichment programme. It would be a face-saving exercise that could pave the way for a suspension and an agreement to permit much tougher IAEA inspections in order to avoid any escalation in the Security Council. It would also provide Iran with a stronger position in the ensuing negotiations with the P5+1 states -- Britain, France, Russia, China, the United States and Germany.

Though Iran would agree to the U.N. Security Council demand and intrusive inspections, this move is still causing discomfort in Western capitals. In a standoff that increasingly has become about prestige and stature, and less and less about non-proliferation, the Iranian move might provide Tehran with a bit too much face-saving, in the view of some Europeans. It could be interpreted by Brussels as an insult and make the EU's efforts to find a resolution to the nuclear wrestling match appear irrelevant.

After all, speeding up the Iranian programme would counter the spirit and letter of the Security Council resolution, even if Iran would manage to suspend the programme before the resolution deadline is reached.

More importantly, the Iranian move would signal that Tehran has -- in spite of U.S. and EU efforts -- managed to master the fuel cycle. For Washington, this would cause an additional headache; mastering the fuel cycle is the latest Israeli red line (previously, Israel regarded uranium enrichment as the nuclear point of no return). Israel has signaled Washington that if Iran crosses this line, and the Bush administration refuses to take action, Israel will be left with no choice but to attack Iran itself.

As a result, from Israel's perspective, the U.S. policy will be proven a failure if Iran connects the cascades -- even if it subsequently suspends its nuclear programme and enters into negotiations with the U.S. and the EU for a long-term solution.

The threat of an Israeli attack on Iran, however, is likely still viewed with some scepticism in Washington, even though Israeli officials have as of late warned Washington that an attack may be imminent. The Israeli Air force still lacks the capability to successfully take out the known Iranian facilities. More importantly, U.S. war plans involve not only targeting the nuclear plants but also much of the infrastructure related to the nuclear programme.

While the U.S. has the capability to target these points, Israel does not. A rash and unsuccessful military campaign could turn the political momentum to Iran's favour and undermine efforts to stop Tehran.

Israeli military action would also spell disaster for Tel Aviv's efforts to use the perceived threat from Iran to forge closer ties with the pro-Washington Sunni dictatorships in the region, without necessarily acceding to the longstanding Arab condition for such a diplomatic shift: an Israeli recognition of a Palestinian state. As much as these Arab dictatorships loathe and fear Iran, they cannot gravitate towards Israel if it engages in a pre-emptive war against a fellow Muslim state.

Finally, Iran is the home to the largest community of Jews in the Middle East outside of Israel itself. Approximately 25,000 Iranian Jews continue to live in the Islamic republic, a country they have called home since the Persian King Cyrus the Great liberated the Jews from the Babylonian imprisonment 2,500 years ago. Military confrontation with Iran could jeopardise the security of this ancient community, a move the Jewish State would be reluctant to take.

Yet, even if Israel doesn't act on its threats, Washington will still be faced with a major political dilemma. On the one hand, it will be difficult for the U.S. to refuse negotiations with Iran after having publicly repeated suspension of enrichment as its sole condition for talks.

"I myself have said I'll show up any place, any time, anywhere to talk with my Iranian counterpart, with other European leaders, if the Iranians will just do the one simple thing that the world has been asking them to do for almost three years: suspend their enrichment capabilities," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told PBS News Hour earlier last month.

On the other hand, having defined a nuclear weapons capability as the mastering of the fuel cycle, and having vowed not to permit Iran to have such a capability, inaction by the Bush administration could come at the expense of appearing to backtrack on an important pledge to Israel. Washington hawks will no doubt accuse the president of letting Iran off the hook.

At some point, however, Washington, Brussels and Tehran must choose whether to win the battle for enrichment or the battle for prestige. Winning both may be outside the realm of possibility for all involved parties. (Inter Press Service)

[Rasputin]

Iran's efforts to produce highly enriched uranium, the material used to make nuclear bombs, are in chaos and the country is still years from mastering the required technology.
Iran's uranium enrichment programme has been plagued by constant technical problems, lack of access to outside technology and knowhow, and a failure to master the complex production-engineering processes involved. The country denies developing weapons, saying its pursuit of uranium enrichment is for energy purposes.

Despite Iran being presented as an urgent threat to nuclear non-proliferation and regional and world peace - in particular by an increasingly bellicose Israel and its closest ally, the US - a number of Western diplomats and technical experts close to the Iranian programme have told The Observer it is archaic, prone to breakdown and lacks the materials for industrial-scale production.
The disclosures come as Iran has told the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA], that it plans to install a new 'cascade' of 3,000 high-speed centrifuges at its controversial underground facility at Natanz in central Iran next month.

The centrifuges were supposed to have been installed almost a year ago and many experts are extremely doubtful that Iran has yet mastered the skills to install and run it. Instead, they argue, the 'installation' will more probably be about propaganda than reality.

The detailed descriptions of Iran's problems in enriching more than a few grams of uranium using high-speed centrifuges - 50kg is required for two nuclear devices - comes in stark contrast to the apocalyptic picture being painted of Iran's imminent acquisition of a nuclear weapon with which to attack Israel. Instead, say experts, the break-up of the nuclear smuggling organisation of the Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadheer Khan has massively set back an Iran heavily dependent on his network.

A key case in point is that Tehran originally procured the extremely high-quality bearings required for the centrifuges' carbon-fibre 'top rotors' - spinning dishes within the machines - from foreign companies in Malaysia.

With that source closed down two years ago, Iran is making the bearings itself with only limited success. It is the repeated failure of these crucial bearings, say some sources, that has been one of the programme's biggest setbacks.

Iran is also believed to be critically short of key materials for producing a centrifuge production line to highly enrich uranium - in particular the so-called maraging steel, able to be used at high temperatures and under high stress without deforming - and specialist carbon fibre products. In this light, say some experts, its insistence that it will install 3,000 new centrifuges at the underground Natanz facility in the coming months is as much about domestic PR as reality.

The growing recognition, in expert circles at least, of how far Iran is from mastering centrifuge technology was underlined on Friday by comments by the head of the IAEA, whose inspectors have been attempting to monitor the Iranian nuclear programme.

Talking to the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland, Mohamed El Baradei appealed for all sides to take a 'time out' under which Iranian enrichment and UN sanctions would be suspended simultaneously, adding that the point at which Iran is able to produce a nuclear weapon is at least half a decade away. In pointed comments aimed at the US and Israel, the Nobel Peace prize winner warned that an attack on Iran would have 'catastrophic consequences'.

Yet some involved in the increasingly aggressive standoff over Iran fear tensions will reach snapping point between March and June this year, with a likely scenario being Israeli air strikes on symbolic Iranian nuclear plants.

The sense of imminent crisis has been driven by statements from Israel, not least from Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who has insisted that 2007 is make-or-break time over Iran's nuclear programme.

Recent months have seen leaks and background briefings reminiscent of the softening up of public opinion for the war against Iraq which have presented a series of allegations regarding Iran's meddling in Iraq and Lebanon, the 'genocidal' intentions of its president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and its 'connections' with North Korea's nuclear weapons programme.

It also emerged last week in the Israeli media that the country's private diplomatic efforts to convince the world of the need for tough action on Iran were being co-ordinated by Meir Dagan, the head of Israel's foreign intelligence service, Mossad.

The escalating sense of crisis is being driven by two imminent events, the 'installation' of 3,000 centrifuges at Natanz and the scheduled delivery of fuel from Russia for Iran's Busheyr civil nuclear reactor, due to start up this autumn. Both are regarded as potential trigger points for an Israeli attack.

'The reality is that they have got to the stage where they can run a small experimental centrifuge cascade intermittently,' said one Western source familiar with the Iranian programme. 'They simply have not got to the stage where they can run 3,000 centrifuges There is no evidence either that they have been stockpiling low-enriched uranium which could be highly enriched quickly and which would give an idea of a malevolent intent.'

Another source with familiarity with the Iranian programme said: 'Iran has put all this money into this huge hole in the ground at Natanz; it has put a huge amount of money in these P-1 centrifuges, the model rejected by Urenco. It is like the Model T Ford compared to a Prius. That is not to say they will not master the technology eventually, but they are trying to master very challenging technology without access to everything that they require.'

[Rasputin]

TEHRAN, Iran - Iran said Sunday it needs time to review a plan proposed by the head of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency that calls for holding off on imposing U.N. Security Council sanctions if Tehran suspends uranium enrichment.

The International Atomic Energy Agency chief, Mohamed ElBaradei, proposed the simultaneous time-out plan during the World Economic Forum in Switzerland in an effort to end the standoff between the West and Iran over the Islamic republic's suspect nuclear program.

"Time should be allocated to see if the plan has the capacity to solve the (nuclear) case," Ali Larijani, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, told reporters during a joint news conference with Russia's national security adviser, Igor Ivanov. He did not elaborate.

The Security Council last month voted unanimously to impose limited sanctions on Iran after it ignored demands to halt enrichment. Iran faces the prospect of additional sanctions unless it stops enrichment within a 60-day period that ends next month.

While Iran says its nuclear program has the sole purpose of using atomic power to generate electricity, the U.S. and its allies believe Tehran is secretly developing atomic weapons in violation of treaty commitments.

Ivanov expressed optimism the dispute can be resolved if both sides agree to ElBaradei's proposal.

"The situation of Iran's nuclear case is critical. Reducing its intensity is our aim," Ivanov said. "We are currently discussing to remove obstacles from the way of negotiations. All sides should show flexibility and avoid statements that worsen the situation."

Iranian state-run radio said earlier Sunday that Tehran wants Moscow to help mediate the standoff, saying Tehran's leaders are looking to Russia for "new proposals, such as enrichment of uranium on Russian soil."

The Kremlin proposed last year that Iran move its uranium enrichment work to Russian territory, where it could be better monitored to alleviate international suspicions. Enrichment can produce material usable both as fuel for electricity-generating nuclear reactors and for atomic bombs.

Iranian leaders had said they were interested in the idea, but nothing ever came of it as oil-rich Iran insisted its nuclear project is intended only to produce reactor fuel.

State radio also said Russia pledged to complete Iran's Bushehr nuclear power station on schedule this year. Russia last year agreed to ship fuel to Bushehr by this March and start up the facility in September, with electricity generation to start by November.

As a U.N. Security Council permanent member, Russia last month forced the body to water down proposed punitive measures that would have imposed curbs on the Bushehr project. But the Kremlin then supported limited sanctions against Iran over its refusal to suspend uranium enrichment.

Ivanov's visit came as Iranian officials issued contradictory statements about progress on expanding enrichment facilities at the Natanz nuclear facility by installing 3,000 centrifuges, which spin uranium gas into enriched material.

Mohammad Saeedi, deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, said Sunday that Iran was continuing its nuclear activity according to schedule.

"If we begin to install centrifuges we will publicly announce it," Saeedi said. Earlier, Hossein Simorgh, spokesman for the Iranian nuclear agency's public relations department, also said new centrifuges had not been installed at Natanz, the official Islamic Republic News Agency reported.

Those remarks appeared to contradict lawmaker Alaeddin Boroujerdi, who said Saturday that Iran was currently installing the 3,000 centrifuges.

The IAEA had no comment on the Iranian statements, spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said Sunday. ElBaradei said recently he believed Iran planned to begin work in February on an underground facility to hold uranium enrichment equipment.

A senior U.S. State Department official warned Iran on Friday against accelerating its atomic program.

"If Iran takes this step, it is going to confront universal international opposition," Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns said. "If they think they can get away with 3,000 centrifuges without another Security Council resolution and additional international pressure, then they are very badly mistaken."

For now, the only known assembled centrifuge operations in Iran consist of two linked chains of 164 machines each and two smaller setups.

[Rasputin]

Top Iranian denies rift over atomic policy

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's nuclear program has not caused a rift among top Iranian leaders but Tehran is seeking a less confrontational approach in resolving its standoff with the West, a former senior diplomat said on Wednesday.

Sadeq Kharrazi, a relative of the country's most powerful figure, Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, denied some media reports that the top cleric had ordered President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to stop his fiery nuclear speeches.

Politicians, some clerics and many moderate former officials say Ahmadinejad's defiant rhetoric has pushed Iran toward international isolation. Some blame him for helping unite major powers in passing a U.N. sanctions resolution last month.

Kharrazi, a former ambassador to France, himself acknowledged that rhetorical blasts against the West "can be counter-productive."

The West accuses Iran of seeking to build atomic bombs, a charge Tehran dismisses saying it wants to generate electricity.

"I have never had any indication that the leader has disputes with Ahmadinejad over the issue. I believe these are baseless rumors," Kharrazi told Reuters.

"Top officials have consensus over Iran's right to peaceful nuclear technology ... But they might have different ideas about how to achieve it."

[Rasputin]

LONDON (AFP) - Iran could be only two or three years away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon, the head of a leading international security think tank in London said.


John Chipman, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said Iran had stockpiled 250 tonnes of uranium hexafluoride (UF6), which, when enriched, would be enough for 30 to 50 weapons.

But he stressed that Iran still faced other obstacles before it could build a weapon.

While Iran is "probably" on track to hit a target of producing 3,000 centrifuges -- the machines which enrich uranium -- at its nuclear facility in Natanz by the end of March, installing them and making them function properly would be complicated, Chipman said.

"If and when Iran does have 3,000 centrifuges operating smoothly, the IISS estimates it would take an additional nine to 11 months to produce 25 kilogrammes (55 pounds) of highly enriched uranium, enough for one implosion-type weapon.

"That day is still two to three years away at the earliest," he said.

Launching the IISS's annual report assessing global military capability, Chipman added that the "main bottleneck" for producing weapons was learning how to run UF6 through linked cascades for long periods.

"If Iran overcomes the technical hurdles, the possibility of military options to stop the programme will increase," he added.

Although US President George W. Bush has said the United States has no plans to invade Iran, Washington is isolating the Iranian regime over nuclear suspicions and allegations of complicity in attacks on US troops in Iraq.

In December, the United Nations Security Council adopted a resolution imposing sanctions on Iran for its repeated refusal to freeze enrichment work.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's regime insists it only wants to use nuclear technology to generate energy, despite fears that it could be used to build an atomic bomb.

Chipman said that the sheer volume of centrifuges was "a political act, designed to demonstrate technological achievement at home and defiance abroad."

He added that having such a high number in place could provide Iran with a bargaining chip if international negotiations resume.

"Having more centrifuges in place -- even if not operating -- would also put the programme at a higher plateau in the event negotiations resumed and Iran made an offer to cap the size," he added.

Iran kicks off 10 days of celebrations Thursday marking the anniversary of its 1979 Islamic revolution, during which it is thought officials may announce the start of phase one of nuclear fuel production for industrial purposes.

But it could face further sanctions later this month when Mohamed ElBaradei, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, submits a compliance report to the UN Security Council.

Elsewhere in his speech, Chipman lent his voice to those criticising Bush's troop surge to Iraq, which will see an extra 21,500 military personnel deployed mainly to Baghdad.

"Simply flooding one area of Iraq, in this case parts of Baghdad, with troops, neglects the subtler aspects of counter-insurgency doctrine," he said.

"For a surge in troops to be sustainable, it has to be married with the second stage of the process."

This meant building up administrative capacity and establishing the rule of law, he added.

[Rasputin]

VIENNA (AFP) - Iran has begun installing centrifuges at the Natanz site where it plans 3,000 of the machines to enrich uranium in defiance of UN demands to halt this sensitive nuclear activity, diplomats have said.



And at the same time it is stopping UN inspectors from installing surveillance cameras in the huge underground hall where the production lines, or cascades, of centrifuges are being set up, the diplomats said.

Both moves would mark an escalation in the international showdown with Iran over a nuclear programme which the United States and others suspect is hiding secret development of an atom bomb, and on which the UN Security Council has levied sanctions to force Tehran to halt enrichment.

A diplomat in Vienna, where the UN watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is based, told AFP "construction has started (at the underground Natanz facility) but the cascades have not yet been assembled."

Another diplomat said bringing in centrifuge parts had started last week.

But Iran has not yet assembled a complete cascade, the basic unit for beginning actual enrichment, said the diplomats, who asked not to be named due to the confidentiality of the information.

Uranium enrichment uses centrifuges to make fuel for civilian nuclear reactors but can also produce the explosive material for atom bombs.

IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming refused to comment.

In Washington, the US administration said the report -- if confirmed -- offered more proof of Tehran's defiant stance toward the international community.

"If true, this would demonstrate that the Iranian government continues to disregard the will of the international community and the United Nations," said US National Security Council spokesman Gordon Johndroe.

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei is to file a report by February 21 to the Security Council on Iranian compliance with the UN's call for it to freeze all enrichment work.

Iran had last weekend given conflicting signals on its disputed nuclear work.

The Islamic republic's atomic energy agency denied the Iranians had started to install the 3,000 centrifuges, shortly after the head of parliament's foreign affairs and national security commission said they had.

Iran is building cascades in units of 164 centrifuges each.

Iran already has two such cascades running above-ground at a pilot enrichment plant at Natanz which would only produce small amounts of enriched uranium.

But the underground plant, protected in a bunker from possible air attack, could if running full tilt produce enough highly enriched uranium for one bomb in nine to 11 months, the London think tank the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has said.

Diplomats said Iran was stopping UN inspectors, who are currently at Natanz, from installing surveillance cameras at the underground site.

The Iranians are "not allowing the IAEA to install the cameras inside the (underground) cascade halls (for centrifuges) in Natanz and are causing further delays in the inspectors' activity," a diplomat who closely monitors IAEA verification work told AFP.

The IAEA monitors the above-ground pilot site with cameras and visits by inspectors and is entitled under the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to the same sort of presence at the underground facility, as the agency is mandated to monitor the use of nuclear material.

But the Iranians "have not yet introduced nuclear material (feedstock uranium gas) into the centrifuges at the underground site, so there is still time," a second diplomat said.

Another diplomat said: "The game is not over."

The first diplomat said: "The Iranians are now willing to accept the installation of cameras only outside the cascade halls, which will not enable the IAEA to monitor the entire uranium enrichment process."

But another diplomat said that "verification goals can be achieved from inside or outside cascade halls."

A fourth diplomat said: "Whenever something new is done, normally it takes time," referring to problems the IAEA has had in setting up verification equipment in other countries.

The IAEA has been investigating Iran since February 2003 after it was revealed that Tehran had hidden sensitive nuclear activities for 18 years.

But the atomic agency has been unable to conclude its inquest due to what it says is a lack of full cooperation from Iran.

The UN Security Council passed a resolution in December imposing sanctions on Iran for its refusal to halt uranium enrichment.

Iranian leaders have said Iran would make a major announcement on its nuclear programme during the 10 days of celebrations to mark the 28th anniversary of the Islamic revolution starting Thursday.

Iran could be only two or three years away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon, IISS director John Chipman said Wednesday.

Meanwhile, although US President George W. Bush has said the United States has no plans to invade Iran, Washington is isolating the Iranian regime over nuclear suspicions and allegations of complicity in attacks on US troops in Iraq.

[Rasputin]

Envoys visit Iran nuclear plant

A group of ambassadors from non-aligned countries has begun a tour of a nuclear facility in Iran on what is being billed as a transparency visit.
It is the first such trip since the UN imposed limited sanctions on Iran in December for refusing to suspend its uranium enrichment programme.

The UN's chief nuclear inspector is to report on Iran's compliance with the Security Council's demands this month.

Some countries suspect Iran of secretly trying to develop a nuclear weapon.

Iran insists on its right under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty to enrich uranium on its own soil for what it says is a peaceful nuclear programme.

Surveillance cameras

The touring delegation includes six envoys accredited to the UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), from Cuba, Malaysia, Egypt, Sudan, Bolivia and Algeria.


Mr Ahmadinejad is to announce important news on the nuclear front

They were taken on a tour, along with Iranian journalists, of the nuclear plant near the central Iranian city of Isfahan.

Iran resumed sensitive uranium conversion work there in 2005.

Hossein Simorgh, spokesman for Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation, said: "The aim of... this visit is to underline again the transparency of Iran's peaceful nuclear activities."

The BBC's Pascale Harter says the 116-strong Non-Aligned Movement is hoping to reassert the influence it had in the 1960s as a third bloc to the US and Soviet superpowers.

However, our correspondent says it is more likely it has been invited to Iran not for its relevance on the world stage but because of its recent endorsement of Iran's stand-off with the US over its uranium enrichment.

Tehran is under increasing pressure from the international community over the issue.

UN SANCTIONS ON IRAN
Ban on import and export of nuclear-related material
Assets frozen of 10 companies and 12 individuals
Threat of further non-military sanctions


Quick Guide: Iran crisis

Iran insists that it is continuing to co-operate with the IAEA, despite recently barring 38 of the agency's inspectors from entering the country.

On Friday an Iranian official denied reports that Tehran had prevented the IAEA installing surveillance cameras at its uranium enrichment plant at Natanz, which the envoys are not scheduled to visit.

The BBC's Pam O'Toole says it is Natanz that is attracting most international attention at the moment.

Tehran has frequently said it intends to install 3,000 centrifuges there, stepping up its controversial uranium enrichment programme in defiance of UN Security Council calls for a suspension.

The country's hardline president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, said recently that he would soon be announcing some important news on the nuclear front.

Our correspondent says there is speculation he might make an announcement during celebrations to mark the 28th anniversary of Iran's Islamic Revolution, which reach a peak on 11 February.

[Rasputin]

WASHINGTON, Feb. 2 — International nuclear investigators have confirmed that Iran is beginning to install equipment in the large underground chamber in Natanz, the center where Iranian officials have said they will move to industrial-scale enrichment of uranium, according to foreign diplomats and American officials.

Iran said last year that it planned to install 3,000 centrifuges by this spring at Natanz, as a first step toward putting more than 50,000 of the devices in operation to produce nuclear fuel. But the program has been behind schedule, and based on reports from investigators from the International Atomic Energy Agency, the centrifuges are just now beginning to be assembled.

Nonetheless, the move signals a continued defiance of the Untied Nations Security Council, which demanded last summer that Iran suspend all uranium enrichment. At the White House on Friday, the spokesman for the National Security Council said, “This clearly demonstrates that Iran is not moving to meet the U.N.’s mandate.”

This weekend, ambassadors from several countries are invited by the Iranians to visit the plant at Isfahan, where Iran produces the uranium gas that is fed into centrifuges for enrichment. American officials dismissed the invitation as a diplomatic stunt, meant to create a false sense of openness about the program.

“Instead of inviting I.A.E.A. ambassadors, Iran should invite I.A.E.A. inspectors,” said Gregory L. Schulte, the American ambassador to the atomic agency. “Iran should give them access to all the documents, nuclear facilities and individuals that it has refused to provide access to in the last three years.”

He added that a United Nations resolution requires Iran to suspend its nuclear activities. “Suspending them would build confidence,” he said. “Showcasing them does not.”

In Tehran, Iranian officials said on Friday that President Jacques Chirac of France was speculating when he first said this week that Iran would not pose a big danger if it had one or two nuclear weapons. Mr. Chirac, who later retracted his remarks, also said that if Iran were to launch a nuclear weapon against a country like Israel, it would lead to the immediate destruction of Tehran.

“This is more like a fantasy by Mr. Chirac because the International Atomic Energy Organization and its director have repeatedly said that Iran is not moving in that direction,” said a Foreign Ministry spokesman, Mohammad Ali Hosseini, referring to the agency’s declarations that it has developed no evidence that Iran is enriching uranium for bomb production. But the agency has also said that Iran never answered a series of questions about suspicious activities that could indicate work on a weapons project. “We have also said that the Islamic Republic of Iran has no plans to have nuclear weapons and that nuclear weapons are religiously banned,” he added. “We really hope they talk realistically.”

Mr. Hosseini said that Iran was surprised that European leaders had ignored comments by Israel’s prime minister, Ehud Olmert, recently that seemed to confirm that Israel possessed nuclear weapons. In a television interview, Mr. Olmert suggested that Iran was “aspiring to have nuclear weapons, as America, France, Israel, Russia.”

The Israelis, clearly embarrassed by Mr. Olmert’s statement, immediately said his remark was not intended as a confirmation or denial of whether his country possesses the weapons. But Iran has seized on it as evidence of a double standard, saying that European nations should be pressing the Israelis, not the Iranians.

If Iran is preparing to take its enrichment program to the next level, it may be rushing. It currently has a pilot program under way to determine if it can master the process. But so far that project is small and has run into numerous technical problems, according to foreign diplomats who have reviewed reports on its progress.

Iran’s president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, had promised an announcement about Iran’s latest advances during celebrations that began Thursday for the 28th anniversary of the Islamic Revolution.

Diplomats in Vienna told The Associated Press that hundreds of technicians and laborers were “working feverishly” at the Natanz facility, near Tehran, over the past week. The news agency said that by Thursday, pipes, wiring, control panels and air-conditioning had been installed — setting the stage for hooking up the centrifuges that spin uranium into enriched levels.

The process can lead to making nuclear fuel for power plants, or for nuclear weapons if the uranium is enriched to higher levels. The United States and some European countries have accused Iran of having a clandestine weapons program, though Iran contends that its program is peaceful.

The United Nations Security Council passed a resolution on Dec. 23 banning the trade of goods and technology related to Iran’s nuclear program. Mr. Ahmadinejad has repeatedly scoffed at the measure, but in recent weeks he has faced internal public criticism for fanning a confrontation with the West.