Nuclear Crisis

[Rasputin]

Iran agrees to reactor inspection

The Arak heavy water reactor is expected to be completed by 2009
Iran has agreed to let inspectors visit this month a nuclear reactor being built which could produce plutonium, the UN nuclear watchdog has said.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) announced a delegation would visit the Arak heavy water reactor, following two days of talks in Tehran.

Heavy water reactors produce plutonium, which can be used in nuclear weapons as an alternative to enriched uranium.

Iran insists that its nuclear programme is for purely civilian purposes.

The EU and US, however, accuse the Islamic republic of seeking to build nuclear weapons and have demanded it suspend its uranium enrichment activities.

The UN Security Council has imposed two rounds of sanctions on Iran for not doing so, and is now considering a third round.

Discussions

After discussions in Tehran, the IAEA said it had agreed a series of measures with Iranian authorities aimed at clearing up key questions about its nuclear programme.




Key nuclear sites

According to an IAEA statement, the Iranian government will allow a visit by UN inspectors to the heavy-water research reactor at Arak by the end of July.

Located some 190km (120 miles) south-west of Tehran, the reactor has long been a bone of contention between Iran and the West.

Arak was one of two Iranian nuclear facilities the existence of which was revealed by an exiled Iranian opposition group in 2002. At that stage Iran had failed to declare its existence to the UN's nuclear watchdog, the IAEA.

Heavy water is used to moderate the nuclear fission chain reaction either in a certain type of reactor - albeit not the type that Iran is currently building - or produce plutonium for use in a nuclear bomb.

The project is scheduled to be completed by 2009.

The IAEA also said it had agreed with Iran on the designation of new inspectors as well as how to deal with safeguards at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant.

[Rasputin]

پیشنهاد مذاکره هسته ای ایران و آمریکا 'قابل بررسی است'


حسینی گفت اهار نظر البرادعی باید با دقت بیشتری مورد بررسی قرار گیرد
وزارت خارجه ایران می گوید پیشنهاد محمد البرادعی رئیس آژانس بین المللی انرژی اتمی، در مورد گفتگوی مستیم این کشور با آمریکا بر سر مسائل هسته ای، قابل بررسی است.
محمد علی حسینی سخنگوی وزارت خارجه ایران، روز یکشنبه به خبرنگاران در تهران گفت جوابن این پیشنهاد، می تواند در آینده بررسی شود.

ایران و آمریکا، به دنبال حدود سه دهه مناسبات خصومت آمیز، اخیراً بر سر مسائل عراق، با هم گفتگو کردند.

روز گذشته برخی منابع خبری گزارش دادند که محمد البرادعی، در سفر به کره شمالی خواستار مذاکره مستقیم ایران و آمریکا بر سر مسائل هسته ای شده است.

ایرنا، خبرگزاری دولتی ایران، به نقل از سخنگوی وزارت خارجه این کشور نوشته است: "اظهار نظر البرادعی باید با دقت بیشتری مورد بررسی قرار گیرد و مشخص شود که هدف این پیشنهاد چیست؟"

محمد البرادعی کل آژانس بین المللی انرزی هسته ای، تاکنون بارها پیشنهاد مذاکره مستقیم آمریکا و ایران بر سر برنامه اتمی این کشور را مطرح کرده است.

آقای البرادعی اخیراً در گفتگو با شبکه تلویزیونی الجزیره، "پیشرفت در باره برخی مسائل" در مذاکرات هیات تحت سرپرستی "اولی هاینونن"، معاون دبیر کل آژانس بین *المللی انرژی اتمی با هیات ایرانی را تائید کرد، اما در عین حال گفت که مساله به میزان همکاری و شفافیت طرف ایرانی بستگی دارد.

[Rasputin]

مدير كل آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى تصميم ايران براى صدور مجوز بازرسى آژانس از رآكتور آب سنگين در اراك و تمايلش براى بحث درباره برنامه هسته*ايش گام*هاى مثبتى هستند.

به گزارش فارس به نقل از خبرگزارى فرانسه، محمد البرادعى گفت تهران پس از نشست هفته گذشته در ايران "براى اولين بار" توافق كرد درباره مسائلى در خصوص مسئله هسته*ايش صحبت كند.

وى افزود: "بنابراين ما دستكم شاهد يك حركت مثبت از سوى ايران هستيم اما اميدوارم به اين مسير ادامه دهيم."

ايران و آژانس اتمى قرار است دور جديد گفت*وگوهاى خود را روز 25 و 26 جولاى در وين ادامه هند و تهران موافقت كرده تا پايان ماه جولاى به بازرسان آژانس اجازه بازديد از رآكتور آب سنگين در اراك را بدهد.

البرادعى خواستار شكيبايى شد اما گفت ايران بايد به تلاش*هايش براى اطمينان دادن به جامعه بين*الملل درباره مقاصد هسته*ايش ادامه دهد.

وى افزود: "ما نياز به تلاشى مداوم از سوى ايران براى كار با خود داريم و جامعه جهانى نيز بايد درك كند كه اين روندى پيچيده* است كه نياز به زمان دارد."
مدير كل آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى تصريح كرد: "اما پيش از اين ما نمي*توانستيم بگوييم برنامه ايران كاملا براى مقاصد صلح*آميز است، هرچه اوضاع درباره ايران بهتر باشد، براى جامعه بين*الملل بهتر است."

[Rasputin]

[Rasputin]

Republican Candidates Rattle Nuclear Tails Against Iran

Dr. Muhammad El-Baradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency and co-winner of the 2005 Nobel Peace Prize, warned on a recent BBC interview that the world risked a war with Iran because of "new crazies."

Asked who the new crazies were, El Baradei refused to point a finger. But the BBC interviewer did not have to look far.

Five of nine Republican presidential nominees - in a CNN televised debate on June 5 - underscored their readiness to authorize a pre-emptive nuclear attack on Iran if that's what it would take to prevent the Islamic Republic from having a nuclear bomb.

Congressman Duncan Hunter of California, former Chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, declared that "I would authorize the use of tactical nuclear weapons if there was no other way to preempt those particular centrifuges."

Former New York Mayor Rudolph Guliani was quick to echo his rival: "I think it could be done with conventional weapons, but you can't rule out anything and you shouldn't take any option off the table."

Virginia Governor James Gilmore said that while he supported negotiations with Iran, "We're also going to say that having a nuclear weapon is unacceptable. They need to understand it. All options are on the table in that instance."

Asked whether he agreed "with the mayor, the governor, others here, that the use of tactical nuclear weapons, potentially, would be possible if that were the only way to stop Iran from developing a nuclear bomb?", current frontrunner Gov. Mitt Romney replied:

"You can't take options off the table."

Two other candidates - Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas and Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas - weren't asked for their opinion on the issue but offered no objections to their rival candidates. A third - Sen. John McCain of Arizona - had already set the tone for the debate by adapting his slogan " Bomb, bomb, bomb Iran!" to the Beach Boy's surfer anthem.

Media post-mortems on the CNN debate were eerily silent about the near-total Republican consensus. Yet the endorsement of a pre-emptive nuclear strike represented a radical break with basic doctrine and established principles of arms control, deterrence and containment.

The non-use pledge - also known as the Negative Security Assurance" issued in 1978 and recognized under UN Security Council Resolution 984 extending the Non- Proliferation Treaty - is clear and unequivocal.

"The United States reaffirms that it will not use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons state parties to the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons, except in the case of invasion or any other attack on the United States, its territories, armed forces or other troops, its allies, or on a state towards which it has a security commitment carried out, or sustained by such a nuclear weapon state in association or alliance with a nuclear weapon state."

Under the doctrine of "strategic ambiguity" U.S. officials have qualified the non-use pledge by reserving the right to use nuclear weapons in response to specific perceived threats from chemical and biological weapons.

But even at the height of the Cold War, many traditional conservatives, including ranking generals and scientists, have consistently and repeatedly reviewed and rejected all arguments in favor of the pre-emptive use of WMD, especially tactical nuclear weapons.

In his 2003 policy paper titled "Mini-Nukes and Preemptive Policy: A Dangerous Combination," director of defense policy studies at the Cato Institute Charles V. Pena warned that mini-nukes and pre-emption would undermine homeland security by increasing the chances of a first strike against the United States.

To extend Harvard professor Joseph Nye's analogy about terrorism as the privatization of warfare, the adoption of mini-nukes is a harbinger of the privatization of nuclear warfare and terrorism by non-state actors - not all of them foreign.

Far from promoting democracy, threatening the Iranian people with nuclear strikes is strengthening Tehran's claims about the satanic nature of American power. The immediate impact is on two Iranian-Americans currently held in Evin prion, Dr. Haleh Esfandiari, Director of the Middle East Programs at the Woodrow Wilson Institute, and Dr. Kian Tajbakhsh of the Soros Institute.

Fortunately, the last word on nuking Iran in the CNN debate went to Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul of Texas. Asked what he saw as the most pressing moral issue facing the United States, Paul said:

"I think it is the acceptance just recently that we now promote preemptive war. I do not believe that's part of the American tradition...And now, tonight, we hear that we're not even willing to remove from the table a preemptive nuclear strike against a country that has done no harm to us directly and is no threat to our national security!"

Paul won a round of applause from the New Hampshire Republicans in the studio audience.

[Rasputin]

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran agreed on Tuesday to let inspectors from the United Nations nuclear watchdog revisit its heavy-water reactor site early next week in a U.N. push for more transparency in Iran's disputed nuclear program.

The deal came in a second round of negotiations between the International Atomic Energy Agency and Iran to clarify the scope of its nuclear activities after years of Iranian stonewalling.

Diplomats say Iran is showing signs of cooperation with the IAEA to head off broader, more painful U.N. sanctions.

Olli Heinonen, the agency's deputy director in charge of nuclear safeguards, said inspectors would be sent to the Arak heavy-water complex, now under construction and due for completion in 2009, on Monday or Tuesday -- four months after Iran cut off IAEA access there in protest at existing sanctions.

Inspectors want to check that Iran is adhering to design data for the reactor given earlier to the IAEA. Diplomats say the risk of Iran using the reactor to yield bomb-grade plutonium would rise in the absence of U.N. monitoring.

Iran says its nuclear program, centered on a new uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, is meant to generate electricity so it can export more of its oil wealth -- not bombs as Western powers suspect after years of Iranian secrecy and evasions.

But it has been slapped with two sets of sanctions for defying repeated U.N. resolutions demanding it suspend all nuclear fuel activity, including the Arak project.

European diplomats said last week Western powers had quietly shelved steps to toughen penalties against Iran until September to see whether the IAEA negotiations would bring an end to Iranian obstruction of U.N. inquiries since 2003 and end a standoff between Tehran and Western powers.

IRAN PLEDGES "BEST EFFORT"

"We had a good discussion and constructive progress in this meeting (today)," Iranian deputy nuclear negotiator Javad Vaeedi said after his two-hour meeting with Heinonen. "Now we are going to move forward in the best mood and with the best effort."

The next step pledged by Iran is to come up with a plan by early August to ease restrictions on IAEA monitoring at Natanz, where Iran has rapidly installed centrifuges to start producing usable amounts of enriched uranium.

When the two men reconvene on August 20 in Tehran, after preparatory contacts by aides, they are to tackle thornier issues that first hinted at a covert Iranian bid for the bomb.

These include unexplained traces of highly enriched -- or weapons-capable -- uranium found on some equipment, a manual on how to shape uranium metal into a bomb core, and research into advanced centrifuges able to enrich three times as fast as the model Iran now uses, a diplomat close to the IAEA said.

Analysts said Tehran could be forthcoming in some areas but hesitate elsewhere to retain bargaining chips in a strategic poker match with the United States waged ultimately to preserve its enrichment work, with the IAEA present for political cover.

"This is a diplomatic dance. We're in a wait and see mode. If Iran really moves on these issues they will gain a stronger hand as it will diminish grounds for suspicion (behind Western pressure on Tehran)," said a diplomat close to the IAEA.

Iran's foreign minister warned Washington to back off from broader sanctions or talk of a last-resort war, saying this would ruin the new diplomatic opportunities.

"We think the renewed efforts to cooperate with the IAEA have contributed to strengthening political will (in the West) towards finding a negotiated solution," he said in remarks published in France's Le Monde newspaper.

[abadani69]

يک پيمانکار روسي که به ساخت اولين نيروگاه هسته اي ايران کمک مي کند، روز چهارشنبه به خبرگزاري ريانووستي گفت، روسيه تا قبل از پاييز 2008 هيچگونه شانسي براي اتمام نيروگاه هسته اي بوشهر ندارد. روسيه از نيروگاه هسته اي بوشهر بعنوان اهرمي در روابط با تهران استفاده مي کند که سال جاري به خاطر کشمکش بر سر پرداخت هزينه هاي مالي معوقه براي ساخت اين نيروگاه به سردي گراييد.

احتمالا ً اتمام نيروگاه بوشهر واکنش سريع آمريکا را در پي خواهد داشت. آمريکا نگران است که برنامه هسته اي ايران با انتقال سوخت هسته اي روسيه به اين کشور تقويت شود. اتم استروئي اکسپورت شرکت دولتي روسيه که مسئول ساخت نيروگاه بوشهر است، اعلام کرده کسري پرداخت از سوي ايران اعتماد به پروژه بوشهر را کاهش داده است.

ايوان استومين رئيس پيمانکار انرگوپروگرس که براي شرکت اتم استروئي اکسپورت کار مي کند، به خبرگزاري ريانووستي گفته است:" امروز ما مي توانيم به طور حتم بگوييم که راه اندازي نيروگاه اتمي بوشهر در پاييز سال جاري خلاف واقعيت است. چارچوب زماني واقعي براي شروع فعاليت اين راکتور به پاييز سال 2008 موکول خواهد شد."

فروش تسليحات روسي و همچنين همکاري هسته اي اين کشور با ايران به روابط مسکو با واشنگتن لطمه زده است. آمريکا مظنون است که ايران از برنامه غيرنظامي هسته اي خود بعنوان سرپوشي براي ساخت سلاح هاي اتمي استفاده مي کند. اما مسکو مي گويد تهران قابليت ساخت سلاح هاي اتمي را ندارد.

يک مقام هسته اي ايران به خبرگزاري رويترز گفته است محمد سعيدي معاون رئيس سازمان انرژي اتمي ايران و جواد وعيدي معاون مذاکره کننده هسته اي اين کشور روز چهارشنبه براي مذاکره در مسکو حضور يافتند. به گفته يک مقام هسته اي روسيه، اين مذاکرات به " تلاش در راستاي تثبيت وضعيت نيروگاه بوشهر معطوف خواهد شد."

روسيه اعلام کرده است پروژه نيروگاه بوشهر را که يک ميليارد دلار ارزش دارد، رها نخواهد کرد. اما در عين حال شرکت اتم استروئي اکسپورت خاطر نشان کرده ايران تنها بخشي از 25 ميليون دلاري را که در ماه براي اتمام اين نيروگاه لازم مي باشد، پرداخت کرده است. ايرنا يسيپوا سخنگوي اين شرکت اظهار داشته است:" اعتماد به اين پروژه کم شده است. يک وضعيت ناپايداري وجود دارد که خبرهاي زيادي بدنبال دارد، اما پولي در کار نيست. " از سوي ديگر مقامات ايران مي گويند سر موعد مقرر حق الزحمه روسيه را پرداخت کرده اند، اما مسکو به خاطر فشارهاي غرب اتمام نيروگاه بوشهر را به تعويق مي اندازد.

اما ايرنا يسيپوا مي گويد:" موضوع فقط بودجه ناکافي است که بر اعتماد طرف روسي و پيمانکاران روسي در قبال پروژه بوشهر و ايران تأثير گذاشته است." روسيه در ماه فوريه راه اندازي نيروگاه بوشهر را که براي سپتامبر 2007 و همچنين انتقال سوخت هسته اي به اين نيروگاه را که براي مارس 2007 برنامه ريزي شده بود، به خاطر مشکلات مالي به تعويق انداخت.

روسيه در گذشته نزديکترين متحد قدرتمند ايران به شمار مي رفت، اما در حال حاضر مقامات بلندپايه روسيه از تاکتيک هاي مذاکره تهران به تنگ آمده اند.

[Rasputin]

روسیه تأخیر در تکمیل نیروگاه بوشهر را تأیید کرد


ميان ايران و روسيه بر سر مراحل پايانی تکميل نيروگاه بوشهر اختلافاتی پيش آمده است
معاون وزیرخارجه روسیه تأخیر بیشتر در تکمیل نخستین نیروگاه اتمی ایران و موکول شدن آن به سال آینده میلادی را تأیید کرد.
یک روز پیشتر، پیمانکار روسی سازنده نیروگاه اتمی بوشهر اعلام کرده بود که به احتمال زیاد، تکمیل این نیروگاه تا اواخر سال 2008 میلادی انجام نخواهد گرفت اما معاون وزیرخارجه روسیه زمان مشخصی برای بهره برداری از نیروگاه بوشهر ذکر نکرده است.

شرکت دولتی اتم استروی اکسپورت روسیه بیش از ده سال است ساخت نیروگاه اتمی بوشهر را در جنوب ایران به عهده گرفته و بهره برداری از این نیروگاه تا به حال چند بار به تأخیر افتاده است.

سرگئی کیسلیاک، معاون وزیرخارجه روسیه که در حال دیدار رسمی از باکو، پایتخت جمهوری آذربایجان است، در گفتگو با خبرگزاری روسی ایتارتاس گفته که کشورش کاملاً خود را متعهد می داند که نیروگاه اتمی بوشهر را در زمانی "منطقی" به بهره برداری برساند و آنچه باعث تأخیر در تکمیل نیروگاه شده، دلائل اقتصادی است نه دلائل سیاسی.

اظهارات آقای کیسلیاک در رد انگیزه های سیاسی در تأخیر تکمیل نیروگاه بوشهر واکنشی است به سخنان مهدی صفری، معاون وزارت امورخارجه ایران که دو روز پیش گفته بود: "هرچند طرف روس اشاره می *کند که مسائل باقیمانده تا راه اندازی نیروگاه بوشهر ماهیت فنی دارد و تحت تأثیر ملاحظات سیاسی نیست، اما واقعیت این است که نمی *توان تأثیر ملاحظات سیاسی بر روند جاری این پروژه را نادیده گرفت".

پیمانکار روسی سازنده نیروگاه اتمی بوشهر اعلام کرده که ایران با به تعویق انداختن پرداخت های موضوع تعهدات مالی خود به این شرکت، اعتماد شرکتهایی را که در ساخت این نیروگاه مشارکت دارند و طرف قرارداد با شرکت روسی اند سلب کرده است.

اختلاف مالی میان ایران و روسیه بر سر نیروگاه اتمی بوشهر از زمستان گذشته علنی شد و طی این مدت، طرف ايرانی بارها تأکيد کرده که بر خلاف آنچه طرف روسی ادعا می کند، به کليه تعهدات مالی خود در قبال ساخت این نیروگاه عمل کرده و حتی برای تکميل نيروگاه حاضر است پرداختهايی فراتر از تعهدات خود داشته باشد.


هرچند طرف روس اشاره می *کند که مسائل باقیمانده تا راه اندازی نیروگاه بوشهر ماهیت فنی دارد و تحت تأثیر ملاحظات سیاسی نیست، اما واقعیت این است که نمی *توان تأثیر ملاحظات سیاسی بر روند جاری این پروژه را نادیده گرفت


مهدی صفری، معاون وزارت امورخارجه ایران

معاون وزیرخارجه روسیه در مورد اختلافات مالی با ایران به ایتارتاس گفته که برای خدمات متخصصان روس شاغل در ساخت نیروگاه بوشهر قرار بوده است طی مدت معینی، مبالغ مشخصی پرداخت شود اما ایران به تعهد خود در این زمینه عمل نکرده و باعث شده تا شرکت اتم استروی اکسپرت خودش مجبور به انجام این تعهدات شود.

وی گفته که مشکلاتی که در این زمینه به وجود آمده در نهایت با مذاکرات کارشناسی حل خواهد شد اما به هر حال، بهره برداری از نیروگاه بوشهر که برای امسال برنامه ریزی شده بود به سال آینده موکول خواهد گردید.

دو روز پیشتر، مهدی صفری، معاون وزیر امورخارجه ایران نیز گفته بود: "از حدود چهار ماه قبل طرف روسی با اشاره به موضوعاتی نظیر اختلاف مالی و عدم به موقع پرداختها و نیز مشکلات مربوط به تأمین قطعات مورد نیاز از کشورهای ثالث، اعلام کرد که امکان بهره برداری از این پروژه در تاریخ مقرر فراهم نیست".

وی در عین حال، بار دیگر هرگونه تأخیر در پرداختهای مربوط به ساخت نیروگاه بوشهر را رد و اعلام کرده بود که ایران حتی فراتر از تعهدات خود به طرف روس پرداخت مالی داشته است.

طی ماههای گذشته، ایران و روسیه چند بار برای حل اختلافات مالی خود بر سر نیروگاه بوشهر به مذاکره نشسته اند اما اظهارات طرف روسی مبنی بر عقب افتادن بهره برداری از این نیروگاه همزمان با حضور دو مسئول ایرانی در مسکو صورت گرفت که برای مذاکره در این زمینه به پایتخت روسیه سفر کرده بودند.

در پی مذاکرات قبلی، مقامات ایرانی گفته بودند که نیروگاه بوشهر پاییز آینده به بهره برداری می رسد و نخستین محموله سوخت اتمی این نیروگاه در حال آماده شدن برای حمل به ایران است.

اما مدیر شرکت روسی انرگوپروگرس که در ساخت نیروگاه بوشهر طرف قرارداد شرکت اتم استروی اکسپورت است در گفتگو با خبرگزاری روسی ریا نوواستی، چنین انتظاری از جانب ایران را غیرواقعبینانه خوانده و گفته حتی اگر همین فردا محموله سوخت اتمی به ایران فرستاده شود، غیرممکن است که نیروگاه حتی ظرف شش ماه به بهره برداری برسد.

وی زمان ممکن برای بهره برداری از این نیروگاه را پاییز سال آینده دانسته است.

روسيه فراهم آورنده اصلی فناوری هسته ای برای ايران است و از لحاظ سياسی نيز در مناقشه ای که در سطح بين المللی بر سر فعاليت اتمی ايران به راه افتاده، بازوی اتکای ايران برای کاستن از فشار بين المللی، بويژه در مورد تحريمهايی بوده که شورای امنيت سازمان ملل متحد بر ايران اعمال کرده است.

[Rasputin]

رسانه*هاى غربى همزمان بااين توافق نوشتند آمادگى دولت"جرج بوش" براى اين كه هند در فرآورى سوخت هسته*اى آمريكا مجاز باشد، برخورد دوگانه در رابطه با مساله هسته*اى ايران را نشان مي*دهد.

اين رسانه*ها تصريح كردند كه "برخلاف هند، ايران يكى از اعضاى معاهده منع گسترش تسليحات هسته*اى است اما آمريكا تلاشى را براى اين كه ايران برنامه غني*سازى خود را متوقف كند، رهبرى مي*كند".

معاون وزير خارجه آمريكا روز جمعه بدون اشاره به دوگانگى آشكار سياست كشورش در بحث انرژى هسته*اى گفت كه "اگر ايرانيان بصورت مسئولانه رفتار و به قوانين احترام بگذاريد، آنها را جريمه نخواهيم كرد"!
برنز افزود: "هند تسليحات هسته*اى خود را گسترش نداده و اجراى مقررات ايمنى آژانس را پذيرفته ولى ايران اين كار را انجام نداده است." وى گفت: "ايرانيان به هيچ وجه و شكلى شايسته چنين معامله*اى نيستند".

معاون وزير خارجه آمريكا تصريح كرد كه ايران فعاليتهايش را سالهاى بسيار از بازرسان بين*المللى مخفى كرده و هنوز هم به بسيارى از سوالات پاسخ نداده است.

برنز مدعى شد كه قرارداد هسته*اى با هند نه تنها موجب گسترش تسليحات هسته*اى نمي*شود بلكه نظام منع گسترش تسليحات هسته*اى را هم تقويت مي*كند.

آمريكا به عنوان تنها كشورى كه تاكنون دو بار از بمب اتمى عليه غير نظاميان استفاده كرده، نقش عمده*اى در گسترش تسليحات اتمى در جهان داشته است.

اسرائيل، شريك راهبردى آمريكا، با كمك واشنگتن نزديك به ۲۰۰بمب اتمى توليد كرده است.

[Rasputin]

حسن روحانی دبیر سابق شورای عالی امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی پس از سخنرانی در مراسم افتتاحیه گردهمایی سراسری دبیران تشکیلات استانی حزب اعتدال و توسعه در یک کنفرانس مطبوعاتی شرکت کرد و به پرسش هائی که مطرح شد پاسخ داد. از جمله در پاسخ به سئوالی که از وی در باره سیاست اتمی شد گفت:

«استراتژی مسایل هسته*ای در گذشته در اختیار تیم هسته*ای نبوده و اکنون هم تعیین استراتژی در حوزه اختیارات تیم هسته*ای نیست. تعیین استراتژی بر عهده سران نظام است. مقام معظم رهبری در این مورد تعبیری داشتند و فرمودند: «کلیه تصمیمات به طور جمعی اتخاذ شده است.» ما هیچ موردی بدون موافقت کاری نکرده*ایم و حتی در مواردی به موافقت شفاهی بسنده نکردیم و موافقت کتبی مقام معظم رهبری را درباره تمامی تصمیمات هسته*ای گرفته*ایم و آن*گاه کارها را انجام دادیم. مقام معظم رهبری همواره تاکید داشته*اند که «تیم هسته*ای هرگز از خط قرمز عبور نکرد.» در زمان پایان مسئولیت ما هم در دیداری که خدمت ایشان بودیم، فرمودند شما سربازان خط مقدم ما بودید. بالاترین مقام کشور، مقام معظم رهبری است و تصمیمات هسته*ای هرگز تصمیمات یک فرد یا تیم هسته*ای نبوده است.»

من در آینده اگر فرصتی باشد مسایل را خواهم گفت. ما مجری بودیم. هر تصمیمی را نظام اخذ می*کرد و می*پذیرفت.

روحانی در باره مناسبات با امریکا گفت:

به هر حال ما که قسم نخورده*ایم میان ما و آمریکا تا ابد رابطه*ای برقرار نمی*شود! ما همیشه روی حسن*نیت آمریکا بحث و تردید داشته*ایم وگرنه برای حل و فصل موضوع آمادگی کامل داریم. از سویی می*توان امیدوار بود که این دیوار بی*اعتمادی در جریان این گفت*وگوها کوتاه*تر شود.

روحانی در باره دانشجویان دستگیر شده اشاره به چاره جوئی های پشت صحنه کرد و گفت:

*«ما اگر مساله*ای داریم باید تلاش کنیم با حداقل هزینه آن را حل کنیم نه با حداکثر هزینه! در روز 18 تیرماه سال 80 عده زیادی دستگیر شدند. آن زمان ما بحث کردیم و به این نتیجه رسیدیم که نیازی نیست دادگاه*ها در این مورد فعال شوند. کار را به کمیته*های انضباطی سپردیم و آن*ها رسیدگی کردند. من الان در جریان ریز ماجرای دانشجویان نیستم. ممکن است مسئولان هم اکنون فکرهایی برای اتمام ماجرا با حداقل هزینه کرده*اند. اما ما می*توانیم با هزینه کمتر ماجرا را حل و فصل کنیم.»

[Rasputin]

We are in a makeshift ladies' changing room, putting on protective clothing for a tour of the throbbing heart of Iran's nuclear programme.

It is a welcome respite to replace a hot Islamic shawl with a shower cap. We don surgical gloves, white trousers and tops, face masks and plastic shoe covers for an hour-long trip around the Esfahan conversion plant, whose hissing vacuums and cylinders are working round the clock to produce feed material for Iran's nuclear enrichment plant at Natanz.

The Esfahan facility in central Iran, functioning under complete United Nations scrutiny, is presumed to be a likely target of any US military strike aimed at halting Iran's nuclear programme before its scientists can manufacture enough fuel for a bomb at Natanz.

With a new round of UN sanctions looming to punish Iran for its refusal to halt the Esfahan activities and uranium enrichment at Natanz, the Iranian government has launched a charm offensive designed to ensure public opinion in Europe and the US that its nuclear intentions are purely peaceful.

Western governments continue to insist that Iran must suspend enrichment as a precondition for negotiations, because of the deep mistrust stemming from the country's 18-year concealment of the most sensitive aspects of its nuclear programme.

The Independent and five other journalists from Britain, France, Germany and the US - whose governments will decide whether there can be a peaceful solution to the crisis with Iran - were invited to Iran by the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, with a promise of unprecedented access to the country's most senior officials and it's most sensitive nuclear plants. However at the last minute the Iranians set limits on the scope of the visit, cancelling trips to the critical facility at Natanz and to the controversial Arak plant under construction. The last-minute decision, put down to "technical problems", illustrated once again the opacity of the power structure in Iran, where overall decisions are made by the spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and where the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps holds sway in the shadows.

The conversion plant, in the shadow of jagged sandstone mountains into which tunnels have been excavated for security and the safe storage of nuclear material, is located just 15km south-east of Esfahan, one of the most beautiful cities in the Islamic world.

The facility is approached by a half-hour drive along a desert road flanked with military hardware. Here, we can see for ourselves how the Islamic republic came to raise its nuclear programme to such a level of national pride and independence that the atomic symbol is now printed on a banknote.

We are escorted into a hall where a banner proclaims: "Nuclear energy is our obvious right."

A short propaganda film, accompanied by stirring music, shows the triumph of Iranian scientists as they celebrated the production of the first vial of uranium hexafluoride from yellowcake in 2004. Since that breakthrough - according to Hamid Mohajerani, the plant's 30-year old general manager - some 200 tons of uranium hexafluoride gas have been produced. The feed material, stored in white cylinders, is dispatched, in full view of the cameras of the International Atomic Energy Agency, for enrichment to Natanz where the IAEA has confirmed Iran's claim to have mastered the technology to enrich the uranium hexafluoride to the 3.5 per cent level required for civil purposes.

If the uranium was enriched to 93 per cent or more, Iran would have weapons grade fuel. However Western experts say the country is still between five and 10 years away from producing a bomb.

The West's need for objective guarantees of Iran's peaceful intentions has been further reinforced with the election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

A fierce critic of the West, he has raised tensions with Israel through his repeated references to the disappearance of the Jewish state. He is also a firm believer in the prophesied return of the Shia "hidden imam". According to some scholars, a nuclear holocaust may be needed to hasten the promised reappearance of the 12th imam who disappeared into a cave in 878.

But the Esfahan conversion plant's public relations general manager, Hossein Simorg, stresses: "All our activities are completely peaceful, and all activities are applied for peaceful, industrial and agricultural work."

We are led through chambers where chemical processes purify the yellowcake and convert it into a variety of compounds that can be used for enrichment or fuel production. Mr Mohajerani says that the main purpose at present of the plant, which is still being expanded, is to produce hexafluoride gas for enrichment as part of a civilian programme to meet the burgeoning demand for electricity, with Iran's oil exports predicted to dry up in 20 years. Mr Simorg appeals to us to "write about what you see, not about political matters".

But Iran's nuclear programme is inseparable from international politics. Hence the Iranian government's attempts to end UN Security Council involvement in order to clarify outstanding "technical" issues with the IAEA which has been unable to guarantee the programme's "exclusively peaceful nature". America has successfully pressured European, Chinese and Russian governments over the years into restricting nuclear cooperation with Iran.

The next stop on our nuclear tour, at Bushehr in steamy southern Iran, illustrates the Iranian difficulties. The "safe" light-water power plant on the Persian Gulf has been under construction with Russian cooperation for the past 12 years. The contract is now restricted to construction of a single nuclear reactor which is supposed to produce 3,000 megawatts of electricity for the national grid.

To guarantee that no nuclear fuel will be diverted for military purposes, Iran has agreed to receive uranium from Russia and to export the spent fuel back to Russia for reprocessing.

The Bushehr scientists, who were sent for three-year training spells in Russia, say the reactor is 93 per cent complete and will be ready to operate in six months. They remain resolutely optimistic that the first delivery of 80 tons of uranium for the reactor core will soon be on its way.

But after we ram white hard hats over our headscarves to tour the facility in humidity that soon drenches our clothes, it is clear that the huge steel reactor core and adjacent turbine chamber are still a giant construction site.

The Iranian government is convinced that the long delays in completing the plant are the result of political pressure.

The Russians suspended cooperation last March, officially citing payment issues. And on the day of our visit to Bushehr last Wednesday, the Russian government announced that the plant would not begin operating until the second half of next year.

Iran's invitation to Western journalists shows that the government is reaching out to the outside world.

Yet the PR campaign has been accompanied by officially backed attempts to intimidate Iranians from contact with foreigners, amid fears that the Bush administration is trying to generate a "velvet revolution" that would bring down the country's clerical rulers.

When the British embassy held its annual garden party on 14 June to mark the Queen's birthday, Iranian guests were pelted with eggs and tomatoes. And efforts have been made to discourage contact between Iranians and froeigners following demonstrations over the award of a knighthood to the author Salman Rushdie, who in 1989 was the target of a death threat in a religious fatwa for his book the Satanic Verses.

With a Bush administration weakened by the war in Iraq, it is difficult to predict where the nuclear stand-off is heading.

President Bush does not want to hand over an unresolved nuclear crisis with Iran to his successor and continues to declare that all options, including military, remain on the table.

This is a game of chicken played for the highest stakes, involving national pride. It holds the risk of regional conflagration and a potential nuclear arms race in the Middle East if Iran continues on its present course. But seen from here, the Iranians will not be the ones to blink first.

[Rasputin]

Making Iran pay the nuclear price

A little over a year ago, the world's big powers set Iran an ultimatum - to stop those parts of its nuclear programme that could help it build the bomb. But the Islamic Republic has brazenly refused to comply with the United Nations Security Council's demands.

That leaves the international community three options in the run-up to the first anniversary of the original deadline of August 31 2006. The outside world must choose whether to do nothing, to strike Iran militarily, or to increase sanctions on Tehran while holding out the prospect of negotiations. Since the first two options could both be disastrous, the last one - of using both carrot and stick to coax Tehran away from its nuclear ambitions - is clearly the best.

The UN's nuclear watchdog believes Iran is now using at least 1,700 centrifuges to enrich uranium - a process that can produce both nuclear fuel and weapons grade material. The rate of progress has slackened in recent weeks, but Tehran is still moving ahead. This is therefore no time for complacency. However, military action would inflame the region as a whole while only setting back the Iranian programme a few years.

In such circumstances, the world needs to be much more serious about sanctions - all the more so because the measures imposed to date have yet to impel Iran to change course.

Action is needed on several fronts. First, the Security Council needs to impose new measures on Iran that hurt the country's leadership as well as its nuclear and missile programmes. But no discussion of this topic in New York is likely until September. It would be unforgivable if, because of Russian and Chinese misgivings, the Security Council dawdled much longer.

Second, the US Treasury should continue its own campaign to persuade international financial institutions to stop doing business with Iran. This move has already pushed up the cost of doing business within Iran and is showing real bite. This week Deutsche Bank confirmed it is reining in its Iranian business.

But heavy-handed extraterritorial US regulations would amount to gesture politics rather than serious sanctions. Proposals being considered by the US Congress would hit European and Asian energy businesses that invest in Iran and so risk spitting the international community. In particular, it would be foolish to strip President George W. Bush of his powers to spare foreign companies from punishment. If Iran's nuclear ambitions are to be thwarted, international unity remains indispensable.

[Rasputin]

Prospects of Armageddon

It is appalling, if unsurprising, to read the neoconservative cheerleader Oliver Kamm arguing in these pages that the atomic bombs that devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki 62 years ago saved lives and ended suffering. The subtext is plain. The same camp whose vocal endorsement led to the present catastrophe in Iraq are now hawkishly gazing at Iran. The same absurd and dangerous logic that defends the nuclear atrocities of 1945 can now be used to support the pre-emptive use of nuclear weapons against Iran - the threat of which in turn makes the idea of a conventional attack appear more palatable. Now, more than ever, we should be unequivocal in our moral position: as Mohamed ElBaradei, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has said, the mere possession of nuclear weapons today should be viewed with the same condemnation and horror as we have regarded slavery and genocide in our modern civilized world.

Astonishingly, the calamity of Iraq has failed to dampen the belligerent clique within the White House. The arrival of an IAEA team in Tehran yesterday to discuss inspections is equally unlikely to dissuade advocates of a strike, nuclear or conventional. Such an assault would be in flagrant breach of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, but it would hardly be the first time the US has disregarded the 1968 accord.
The treaty obliges nuclear states to pursue negotiations in good faith towards cessation of the nuclear arms race and on to disarmament. It also guarantees non-nuclear states help with and access to peaceful nuclear know-how and technology.

All five original nuclear states are in violation of the treaty for failing to take effective action towards disarmament. The US systematically contravened the treaty in the 1980s and 1990s by successfully bringing pressure to bear on western governments and companies, as well as China and Russia, not to enter nuclear collaborations with Iran - which, as a signatory of the treaty, has been entitled since 1970 to receive material, technology and information for the peaceful use of nuclear power. This eventually drove Iran, after the bombing of Iraq's Osirak nuclear plant by Israel in 1981, on to the black market in order to pursue its nuclear programme. The subsequent partial concealment of Iran's nuclear activities gave rise to western suspicion of its nuclear ambitions, but rarely does the media characterisation make reference to the context in which the recourse to the black market took place. It is rare, too, to see mention made of the fact that the IAEA has found no evidence of a weapons programme after over 2,200 hours of snap inspections of Iranian nuclear plants.

In marked contrast to western suspicion of Iran, the real nuclear programme in Israel has been eagerly sponsored by the governments of France, Britain and the US. They have actively supported Israel's development of an arsenal estimated to include more than 200 warheads. It is a weapons programme Tel Aviv is determined to shroud in secrecy. Mordechai Vanunu served an 18-year prison sentence, including 12 years in solitary confinement, after speaking publicly of Israel's possession of nuclear weapons in 1986. Last month he was sentenced to a further six months in prison for speaking to foreigners .

Even as Iran discusses renewed inspections with the IAEA, the risk of a military attack on its nuclear facilities remains high. Israel's threat to deploy nuclear bunker busters to destroy Iran's weapons potential is in line with the US's national security strategy of 2006 and the Pentagon's doctrine for joint nuclear operations which justifies use of tactical nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapons states as a "deterrent". The ultimate irony is that the leading violator of the treaty, the US, and the region's sole nuclear power and non-signatory, Israel, are contemplating nuclear strikes on the pretext of nuclear limitation.

Last year John McCain, a Republican presidential hopeful and an advocate of keeping the military option against Iran on the table, was asked what the consequence of an attack on Iran would be. His response was only one word: "Armageddon." After three devastating wars driven by the US, Britain and Israel since 9/11, the prospect of a catastrophic war against Iran hangs over the region.

While the world remembers Hiroshima and Nagasaki, an international statement endorsed by dozens of leading peace, anti-nuclear and community organisations in the UK, US and Israel, as well as five Nobel laureates, calls for a Middle East free of weapons of mass destruction. Israel could do the region a great service by announcing immediately that it is to disable its nuclear arsenal.

[abadani69]

از ابتداي ماه اوت، ايران بايد تعداد سه هزار سانتريفوژ را در مرکز نطنز عملياتي کرده باشد. اين تعداد سانتريفوژ که از سوي برخي منابع نزديک به آژانس اتمي مطرح شده، به تهران اجازه خواهد داد تا به توليد اورانيوم غني شده بپردازد و اگر خواست، بمب اتمي هم بسازد. ولي سکه دو رو دارد: دو قطعنامه شوراي امنيت که به ترتيب در دسامبر سال گذشته و مارس امسال به اتفاق آراء به تصويب رسيدند، تاکنون به اقتصاد ايران صدمات بسياري وارد کرده . سومين قطعنامه هم در دست بررسي است، و به طور قطع شرايط را وخيم تر خواهد کرد.

گرچه محمود احمدي نژاد به تازگي اعلام کرده هيچ قطعنامه اي نمي تواند ايران را از دستيابي به فن آوري هسته اي باز دارد، ولي باز مقامات حکومتي از عواقب و پيامدهاي اين مسأله نگرانند. نه تنها علي اکبر هاشمي رفسنجاني، به عنوان رقيب اصلي رييس جمهور ايران، بلکه نزديکان رهبر انقلاب نيز نگران اند. روز 16 مي، حسن روحاني، دبير شوراي عالي امنيت ملي و مسؤول پيشين پرونده هسته اي، سؤالي را مطرح کرد مبني بر اين که اقتصاد کشور تا کي بايد از تبعات اين قطعنامه ها لطمه ببيند. روز 26 آوريل، علي اکبر ناطق نوري، نامزد سابق جناح محافظه کار براي رياست جمهوري، اظهار مي دارد که بي ثباتي اقتصادي مي تواند اطمينان و اعتماد مردم از جمهوري اسلامي بگرداند.

اين انتقاد ها تاکنون بسيار کلي مطرح شده اند، ولي به خوبي نشان مي دهند که ايران در وضعيت خوبي به سر نمي برد.

اقتصاد ايران بيش از ديگر بخش ها از تحريم هاي اعمال شده توسط شوراي امنيت آسيب ديده است. از زمان تصويب قطعنامه 1747، دارايي هاي بانک سپه در خارج از ايران توقيف شده و درحال حاضر تحت کنترل بين المللي است. به ادعاي آمريکا اين بانک از اين پس به طور کامل از سيستم مالي آن کشور حذف مي شود. به علاوه، از معامله با مشتريان خود و سپرده گذاران خارجي هم محروم شده است. شعبات بانک سپه در لندن، رم و فرانکفورت با خطر بسته شدن روبرو هستند. اگر بانک سپه ورشکسته اعلام شود [و اين کاري است که امريکايي ها با فشار بر بانک هاي غربي در حال انجامش هستند]، کل سيستم بانکي ايران آسيب خواهد ديد، زيرا همه مشتريان خارجي اش متحمل زيان هائي مي شود که پي امد اجراي قطعنامه هاي شوراي امنيت است. تاکنون بيش از 20 بانک غربي و ژاپني فعاليت هاي خود را با ايران کاهش داده و يا به طور کلي قطع کرده اند: بانک هاي فرانسوي بانک ملي پاريس، کردي ليونه، سوسيته ژنرال ؛ بانک هاي بريتانيايي اچ اس بي سي، للويدز و چارترد استاندارد و همچنين کردي سويس

ازطرف ديگر، کشورهاي اروپايي محدوديت هائي را آغاز کرده اند که هدف آن کاهش تأمين ضمانت براي شرکت هايي است که با ايران داد و ستد دارند يا در آن کشور سرمايه گذاري مي کنند. بانک جهاني و صندوق بين المللي پول در گزارش خود در تاريخ 8 مارس نوشته اند که رويارويي ايران با کشورهاي غربي به طور قابل توجهي بر اقتصاد ايران، به ويژه بر سرمايه گذاري هاي خارجي در بخش نفتي، تأثير خواهد گذاشت.

کاهش توليد نفت همچنان ادامه دارد و به گفته اکبر ترکان، مديرعامل پتروپارس در اوايل ماه ژوئيه، کاهش توليد نفت به دليل عدم سرمايه گذاري خارجي، به طور ميانگين سالانه 5 درصد خواهد بود. از طرف ديگر، بخش تصفيه و پالايش نيز آسيب خواهد ديد. در اين بخش که از قبل به عنوان يکي از ضعف هاي اصلي ايران شناخته شده، تنها 60 درصد از بنزين مصرفي کشور تأمين مي شود، درحالي که تقاضا روز به روز افزايش مي يابد. در اواخر ماه ژوئن، طرح سهميه بندي بنزين آغاز شد و شورش و آتش سوزي هايي را در تهران در پي آورد.

مرکز پژوهش هاي مجلس نرخ فعلي تورم را 17 درصد تعيين کرده بود، ولي به دليل فشارهاي غربي و سياست هاي دولت پوپوليست، اين ميزان به 23.4 درصد رسيده است. با اين حساب مي توان گفت که تحريم ها نتيجه بخش بوده است.

تنها احمدي نژاد است که هنوز در اين خصوص ترديد و حتي تا بدانجا پيش مي رود که تحريم هاي شوراي امنيت سازمان ملل را "کاغذ پاره" مي پندارد.

[Rasputin]

Iran, IAEA seek agreement in nuclear talks

TEHRAN (AFP) - Iran and the UN atomic energy agency were holding a second day of talks Tuesday aimed at easing concerns over the Iranian nuclear drive, following a renewed warning over Tehran's future cooperation.



An International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) delegation led by deputy director general Olli Heinonen held three sessions of talks with Iranian national security official Javad Vaeedi, Iranian media reported.

The talks are aimed at agreeing a plan that would foresee easier inspections of Iranian nuclear plants by IAEA inspectors and Iran giving information about aspects of its atomic drive that have concerned the agency.

No information has emerged over the talks, which opened on Monday, but the pair were expected to hold a press conference Tuesday evening to explain the results of their discussions.

Vaeedi and Heinonen, who is in charge of inspections at the IAEA, have already held two previous rounds of talks in Tehran and Vienna, but this week's session is billed as the final discussion.

Iran hopes these discussions with the IAEA over improving cooperation will encourage Western powers to drop their threats to impose a third set of UN sanctions over its nuclear programme.

After the first day of talks, Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani issued a warning that the future of such discussions and Iran's cooperation with the agency would be in danger if sanctions were imposed.

"If they (world powers) take an irrational move, then Iran's cooperation with the agency as well as the talks will be sterile," Larijani said late on Monday, according to the official IRNA news agency.

"If they take the wrong path this will arouse a reaction from Iran. The path taken so far will end and Iran will take its next steps," Larijani warned.

The IAEA has been conducting an investigation into the Iranian nuclear programme for more than four years, but is still unable to make any firm conclusion over its nature.

The United States accuses Iran -- OPEC's number two oil producer and owner of the second largest proven gas reserves in the world -- of seeking to make nuclear weapons under the guise of a civilian energy drive.

Iran, however, insists that the nuclear programme is entirely peaceful and its growing population needs electricity from atomic energy, especially when the fossil fuels start to run dry.

The deputy head of Iran's atomic energy organisation Mohammad Saeedi said he expected that IAEA chief Mohammad ElBaradei would take account of Iran "cooperation" in his next report on Iran in two weeks.

However, the central demand of world powers remains that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment activities, which they fear could be diverted to make nuclear weapons.

Enrichment has always been the key sticking point in attempts to break the deadlock between Iran and the West over the crisis.

The process is used to make the nuclear fuel for power stations, but in highly enriched form the uranium can be used to make the explosive warhead of a nuclear bomb.

Iran has repeatedly refused to suspend enrichment, arguing that it has every right to the full nuclear fuel cycle under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. The UN Security Council has punished Tehran's defiance with two sets of sanctions.

Three of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council -- the United States, France and Britain -- are in favour of debating further sanctions moves, while Russia and China are more hesitant.