Part I
They’re in the news often enough, but Iran’s relationship with the world hasn’t actually changed for nearly a decade. The sticking point is the nuclear bomb and no progression or regression is possible in Iran’s relations with the world until a genuine conclusion is reached. It’s hard to read the scorecard, but if the Iranian government’s desire was to win time they have won admirably.
A conclusion will arrive in one of three options: Iran will get the bomb, Iran will be bombed for trying to get the bomb or Iran will renounce the bomb. The best result for everyone, perhaps surprisingly, is for Iran to hurry up and get the bomb. The sooner they do, the sooner Iran can begin to believe what much of the world already knows: Iran has become a major power.
The last several decades have taken an Iran defined by rural inefficiency to an urban nation on the brink of joining the first-world elite. Scholastic achievement, a moderately diversified industry, increased job opportunities, widespread suitable housing, firm infrastructure, female empowerment, more than partial democracy, socialist safety nets: Iran has completed much of the heavy lifting required to raise a country of 70 million high enough to no longer be considered just another Middle Eastern state stuck in the past. Whatever one’s views of the Islamic government, anyone who knows Iran firsthand is impressed but perhaps surprised at the country’s rapid development in the last 30 years. Iran recently became only the ninth country to launch an information satellite. This didn’t elicit much chest-thumping here in Tehran – people seemed more surprised that only eight other countries have done it, not that this nation of engineers and doctors figured it out. But when you’re not permitted to travel freely it’s easy to think the grass is greener absolutely everywhere. Above all, Iranians unjustifiably low self-esteem may be the result of a national character defined in large part by a love of loud pessimism seemingly self-defeatingly mixed with an unbridled idealism.
Iran does not appear like a country in need of a revolution, as western media outlets insist. If they would (or could) visit, they would see Iran looks exactly like it should: like a country who had a successful popular revolution some time ago. In fact, Iranians are going to be wary of any destructive revolution which could jeopardize the considerable and well-distributed gains made since Iran became a republic. Iran’s influence over southwest Asia – over Iraq, Syria, Palestine (and thus Israel) - shows that its regional strength cannot be doubted. For all that is made of modern “city-states” like Bahrain or Qatar it’s unlikely these thinly-populated countries will ever have the gravitas to lead a region of more than one billion Muslims.
And so, when Iran gets the bomb they will be fully-equipped to definitively move from the Cubas, the Nigerias, and the Thailands of the world – the regional influences in the shadow of powerful armies and economies – to the level occupied by Europe and the United Kingdom: not super powers, but super players.
Good Fences, Good Neighbors
The world’s premier defensive weapon cannot lift a destitute nation, like the “born nuclear” countries of the former Soviet Union, to such a realm but it could for Iran. And the way nuclear proliferation can go from evil to good here is all controlled by the amount we understand the adjective “defensive.”
If threats of nuclear warfare were effective Russia wouldn’t resort to lording their gas supplies over Europe’s head every other winter. Atomic warfare could only possibly be justified to end a World War III; to use it to start one would ensure the launching country’s complete annihilation. Anyone who thinks Iran will use nuclear warfare on Israel (and thus Palestinians) shows their ignorance by believing Iran is more like North Korea when it is in fact a small step from Austria or Australia. There are no mad despots here and the populace is not fending off starvation. Despite the hope inspired by the ascent of Barack Obama, recent history is clearly a story of American hegemony falling and Iranian influence rising. The new reality, for those who wish to take off their Shah-colored glasses (and perhaps they should stop taking disco lessons as well) makes it impossible for Iran to be bombed, or more accurately, for their nuclear facilities to be bombed by the U.S. or Israel: Neither country has the political or moral strength to justify such an attack and, as the quagmire in Iraq reveals, they may not even have what they always took for granted - the military strength. Because Iran is the exact opposite of Iraq – a thriving, democratic, well-built nation – no bombs will fall there for some time. A strategic bombing would inflame Iran into taking to the streets, to the embassies and to the airwaves and the moral high ground the west has enjoyed would be pulled from under them, leaving them without hard or soft power. Furthermore, such an attack would be futile as Iran certainly has the money and the will to rebuild.
Equally unlikely is for Iran to willingly abandon their nuclear program. In the last 30 years they have been attacked by neighbors and encircled by enemies. Most Iranians support the nuclear program because they know that with the bomb they are eminently safer. For them to give up this security, while Obama plans to “withdraw” from Iraq (to the tune of 40,000 troops left behind ) and increase the efforts in Afghanistan seems to invite invasion as, in the short term, both seem likely to become U.S. client states with commensurate military bases. The world is indeed a better place without nuclear weapons, but that genie is out of the bottle and unfortunately in the hands of even such ramshackle and unstable countries as Pakistan, Uzbekistan and India (despite their “world’s largest democracy” moniker, any country that scores lower than Sudan and Rwanda on the 2008 Global Hunger Index is inherently unstable in my book). Asking Iran to give up the bomb is really all the world has the power to do – ask – and Iran does not seem willing to relinquish their right to equal technology and perhaps the ultimate security blanket.
Endless Progress, Not War
The best solution, and the most definitive, forward-moving one, is for Iran to get the bomb. It’s the best for Iranians, it’s the best for the Middle East and it’s even the best for America. As the bomb further reduces the likelihood of war, thus increasing the odds for successful diplomacy, it should even be the best for Israel. Iran has two ways it can go when they get the bomb: they can enjoy their new security and look inward or they can look outward and increase insecurity. When they no longer have to spend attention and resources in ensuring their own safety, Iran could more completely address the relatively minor issues required for the final step into powerful modernity: The issue of corruption from the very top down to the taxi driver who ignores yet another right of way (though that is pleasantly improving as well in modern Iran); a national referendum on the wearing of the chador, if only to legitimize to the west (and perhaps to themselves) that Iranian women do in fact want to be compelled to wear it; undertaking the international monetary steps required to reassess the inflated value of the rial; ending the expensive “bread and circuses” subsidy of gasoline; increasing the amounts of academic and job opportunities their rising youth require, especially with the construction of more universities; extending the reach of public transportation; continuing to fund public beautification projects (more icing on the cake that modern countries enjoy) and more.
I say “minor changes” because Iran has truly solved many fundamental issues other countries struggle with such as high-school education, health care, welfare, safety, affordable housing, etc. But Iran would have to make one drastic change: it would have to look inward for solutions instead of looking outward for blame, at old scapegoats like the U.S., England and Israel. This psychological acceptance of personal responsibility will be more difficult for Iran than decreasing unemployment as for 30 years, justified or not, it has been xenophobic and paranoid towards the outside world. Are Iranians ready to accept the fact that no one outside of Iran is really preventing them from attaining domestic happiness? I could even define progress by at least getting Iranians to concede that a statute of limitations has been reached regarding complaints about the Mongol invasion of Genghis Khan! For those who have never been: Such is Iran (at its worst).
The easily predictable reality is that once they get the bomb the current Iranian government will feel emboldened and empowered. The can easily proclaim success and try to persuade Iranians that this proves their bonafides as good governors, justifying maintenance of the status quo. But the tenets of Islamic fundamentalism require their adherents to continually evangelize in Iraq, Syria, Palestine and everywhere else. Instead of making the truly few improvements to become a modern, enjoyable and reputable country, some will continue to be hard-liners and extend the revolution, adding nuclear tips to their umbrella of influence.
They’re in the news often enough, but Iran’s relationship with the world hasn’t actually changed for nearly a decade. The sticking point is the nuclear bomb and no progression or regression is possible in Iran’s relations with the world until a genuine conclusion is reached. It’s hard to read the scorecard, but if the Iranian government’s desire was to win time they have won admirably.
A conclusion will arrive in one of three options: Iran will get the bomb, Iran will be bombed for trying to get the bomb or Iran will renounce the bomb. The best result for everyone, perhaps surprisingly, is for Iran to hurry up and get the bomb. The sooner they do, the sooner Iran can begin to believe what much of the world already knows: Iran has become a major power.
The last several decades have taken an Iran defined by rural inefficiency to an urban nation on the brink of joining the first-world elite. Scholastic achievement, a moderately diversified industry, increased job opportunities, widespread suitable housing, firm infrastructure, female empowerment, more than partial democracy, socialist safety nets: Iran has completed much of the heavy lifting required to raise a country of 70 million high enough to no longer be considered just another Middle Eastern state stuck in the past. Whatever one’s views of the Islamic government, anyone who knows Iran firsthand is impressed but perhaps surprised at the country’s rapid development in the last 30 years. Iran recently became only the ninth country to launch an information satellite. This didn’t elicit much chest-thumping here in Tehran – people seemed more surprised that only eight other countries have done it, not that this nation of engineers and doctors figured it out. But when you’re not permitted to travel freely it’s easy to think the grass is greener absolutely everywhere. Above all, Iranians unjustifiably low self-esteem may be the result of a national character defined in large part by a love of loud pessimism seemingly self-defeatingly mixed with an unbridled idealism.
Iran does not appear like a country in need of a revolution, as western media outlets insist. If they would (or could) visit, they would see Iran looks exactly like it should: like a country who had a successful popular revolution some time ago. In fact, Iranians are going to be wary of any destructive revolution which could jeopardize the considerable and well-distributed gains made since Iran became a republic. Iran’s influence over southwest Asia – over Iraq, Syria, Palestine (and thus Israel) - shows that its regional strength cannot be doubted. For all that is made of modern “city-states” like Bahrain or Qatar it’s unlikely these thinly-populated countries will ever have the gravitas to lead a region of more than one billion Muslims.
And so, when Iran gets the bomb they will be fully-equipped to definitively move from the Cubas, the Nigerias, and the Thailands of the world – the regional influences in the shadow of powerful armies and economies – to the level occupied by Europe and the United Kingdom: not super powers, but super players.
Good Fences, Good Neighbors
The world’s premier defensive weapon cannot lift a destitute nation, like the “born nuclear” countries of the former Soviet Union, to such a realm but it could for Iran. And the way nuclear proliferation can go from evil to good here is all controlled by the amount we understand the adjective “defensive.”
If threats of nuclear warfare were effective Russia wouldn’t resort to lording their gas supplies over Europe’s head every other winter. Atomic warfare could only possibly be justified to end a World War III; to use it to start one would ensure the launching country’s complete annihilation. Anyone who thinks Iran will use nuclear warfare on Israel (and thus Palestinians) shows their ignorance by believing Iran is more like North Korea when it is in fact a small step from Austria or Australia. There are no mad despots here and the populace is not fending off starvation. Despite the hope inspired by the ascent of Barack Obama, recent history is clearly a story of American hegemony falling and Iranian influence rising. The new reality, for those who wish to take off their Shah-colored glasses (and perhaps they should stop taking disco lessons as well) makes it impossible for Iran to be bombed, or more accurately, for their nuclear facilities to be bombed by the U.S. or Israel: Neither country has the political or moral strength to justify such an attack and, as the quagmire in Iraq reveals, they may not even have what they always took for granted - the military strength. Because Iran is the exact opposite of Iraq – a thriving, democratic, well-built nation – no bombs will fall there for some time. A strategic bombing would inflame Iran into taking to the streets, to the embassies and to the airwaves and the moral high ground the west has enjoyed would be pulled from under them, leaving them without hard or soft power. Furthermore, such an attack would be futile as Iran certainly has the money and the will to rebuild.
Equally unlikely is for Iran to willingly abandon their nuclear program. In the last 30 years they have been attacked by neighbors and encircled by enemies. Most Iranians support the nuclear program because they know that with the bomb they are eminently safer. For them to give up this security, while Obama plans to “withdraw” from Iraq (to the tune of 40,000 troops left behind ) and increase the efforts in Afghanistan seems to invite invasion as, in the short term, both seem likely to become U.S. client states with commensurate military bases. The world is indeed a better place without nuclear weapons, but that genie is out of the bottle and unfortunately in the hands of even such ramshackle and unstable countries as Pakistan, Uzbekistan and India (despite their “world’s largest democracy” moniker, any country that scores lower than Sudan and Rwanda on the 2008 Global Hunger Index is inherently unstable in my book). Asking Iran to give up the bomb is really all the world has the power to do – ask – and Iran does not seem willing to relinquish their right to equal technology and perhaps the ultimate security blanket.
Endless Progress, Not War
The best solution, and the most definitive, forward-moving one, is for Iran to get the bomb. It’s the best for Iranians, it’s the best for the Middle East and it’s even the best for America. As the bomb further reduces the likelihood of war, thus increasing the odds for successful diplomacy, it should even be the best for Israel. Iran has two ways it can go when they get the bomb: they can enjoy their new security and look inward or they can look outward and increase insecurity. When they no longer have to spend attention and resources in ensuring their own safety, Iran could more completely address the relatively minor issues required for the final step into powerful modernity: The issue of corruption from the very top down to the taxi driver who ignores yet another right of way (though that is pleasantly improving as well in modern Iran); a national referendum on the wearing of the chador, if only to legitimize to the west (and perhaps to themselves) that Iranian women do in fact want to be compelled to wear it; undertaking the international monetary steps required to reassess the inflated value of the rial; ending the expensive “bread and circuses” subsidy of gasoline; increasing the amounts of academic and job opportunities their rising youth require, especially with the construction of more universities; extending the reach of public transportation; continuing to fund public beautification projects (more icing on the cake that modern countries enjoy) and more.
I say “minor changes” because Iran has truly solved many fundamental issues other countries struggle with such as high-school education, health care, welfare, safety, affordable housing, etc. But Iran would have to make one drastic change: it would have to look inward for solutions instead of looking outward for blame, at old scapegoats like the U.S., England and Israel. This psychological acceptance of personal responsibility will be more difficult for Iran than decreasing unemployment as for 30 years, justified or not, it has been xenophobic and paranoid towards the outside world. Are Iranians ready to accept the fact that no one outside of Iran is really preventing them from attaining domestic happiness? I could even define progress by at least getting Iranians to concede that a statute of limitations has been reached regarding complaints about the Mongol invasion of Genghis Khan! For those who have never been: Such is Iran (at its worst).
The easily predictable reality is that once they get the bomb the current Iranian government will feel emboldened and empowered. The can easily proclaim success and try to persuade Iranians that this proves their bonafides as good governors, justifying maintenance of the status quo. But the tenets of Islamic fundamentalism require their adherents to continually evangelize in Iraq, Syria, Palestine and everywhere else. Instead of making the truly few improvements to become a modern, enjoyable and reputable country, some will continue to be hard-liners and extend the revolution, adding nuclear tips to their umbrella of influence.
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