Nuclear Crisis

[Rasputin]

هفته پایان مهلت قطعنامه

توهم مذاکره و سازش اتمی

تحلیل های خوش بینانه رهبر در پایان تور اتمی- سیاسی ولایتی و لاریجانی بزودی نقش برآب خواهد شد. بجای امید به تغییرات در کاخ سفید و سنای امریکا باید طرحی برای تغییرات در سیاست ها و کاربدستان حکومتی داشت.

شمارش معکوس برای پایان مهلت شورای امنیت برای اجرای قطعنامه این شورا از سوی ایران آغاز شده و این هفته به پایان می رسد. این درحالی است که هنوز دورنمائی واقعی و قابل اطمینان برای یافتن راه حلی که بتوان متکی به آن جلوی قطعنامه سوم تحریم و حتی اقدام نظامی علیه ایران را گرفت مشخص نیست.

تور اتمی که با سفر ولایتی و پیام رهبر برای رئیس جمهور روسیه آغاز شده بود با حضور علی لاریجانی در کنفرانس مونیخ، مذاکرات پنهان با رئیس سیاست خارجی اتحادیه اروپا و سپس دیدار از عربستان سعوئی ادامه یافت و اکنون همه شنیده را از هر سو به ایران و نزد رهبر برده اند تا تکلیف روشن شود.

دراین میان انواع بحث ها پیرامون طرح سوئیس و یا پیشنهاد البرادعی و یا سولانا رئیس سیاست خارجی اتحادیه اروپا مطرح می شود که اگر از لفاظی های و مغلطه های کاربدستان حاکمیت جدا کنیم این می شود:

" جمهوری اسلامی حاضر است تن به قبول 4 درصد غنی سازی کنترل شده بدهد و در روز آغاز مذاکرات غنی سازی در نطنز نیز متوقف شود تا این 4 در صد بصورت رسمی در پایان مذاکرات اعلام شده و بحران خاتمه یابد."

صرفنظر از این که چنین راه حلی که تاکنون بارها از سوی امریکا و حتی اروپائی ها رد شد و اجرای کامل قطعنامه از ایران خواسته شده است به نتیجه برسد و یا نرسد، نکته اصلی آنست که در موقعیت دشواری که ایران را در آن قرار داده اند امریکا تن به قبول این نوع راه حل ها می دهد؟

همه شواهد نشان میدهد که به دلائل زیر چنین نخواهد شد:

1- تحریم اقتصادی ایران بتدریج می رود تا به فروپاشی درونی بیانجامد و در نتیجه ادامه و تشدید آن برای امریکا مطلوب تر است.

2- امریکا و صنایع نفتی- نظامی این کشور در صورت چنین مصالحه ای چه چیز بدست می آورد؟ در واقع هیچ! بنابراین به چه دلیل به چنین مصالحه ای تن در بدهند؟ بویژه اکنون که پتک وتو در شورای امنیت را بالای سر ایران گرفته اند.

3- ماشین جنگی امریکا برای میهمانی به منطقه نیآمده و در عراق نیز بیهوده مستقر نشده است. هر نوع سیاست ماجراجویانه ایران و اظهارنظرها و بیانات جنگجویانه مقامات ایران تقویت موقعیت نظامی- سیاسی او در منطقه و عراق است و از دل این نا بخردی رهبران جمهوری اسلامی برای نخستین بار جبهه ای از اعراب و اسرائیل باضافه ترکیه و حتی پاکستان تشکیل شده است. به چه دلیل باید حرکت ماشین در این مسیر را متوقف کنند؟

بنابراین، آن ساده انگاری رهبر جمهوری اسلامی که تصور کرده با تظاهرات از نفس افتاده 22 بهمن کاخ سفید جا زده و به رغم محاسباتی که روی اختلاف جمهوریخواهان و دمکرات ها در مجلس سنا و نمایندگان امریکا کرده، سیاست استراتژیک امریکا بی اعتنا به این ارزیابی ها ادامه خواهد یافت. یگانه راه حل نه امید به تغییرات در امریکا، بلکه ایجاد تغییرات در داخل ایران است. یعنی پایان بخشیدن به سیاست های نظامی و جاه طلبی هائی که فرمانده سپاه پاسداران در دوران اخیر بارها بر زبان آورده است: رهبر جهان اسلام و حتی جهان سوم!



از قول محمدرضا باهنر حاصل آن تور اتمی- سیاسی را که در بالا گفتیم بخوانید:

ایران در مورد تعلیق همراه با سایر مسایل، آمادگی مذاکره را دارد . بدین معنا که ابتدا مذاکرات آغاز گردد و سپس اگر نتیجه*ای حاصل شد تعلیق را، آن هم به شرط زمان محدود می*پذیریم.

[Rasputin]

TEHRAN (AFP) - Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has given his unequivocal backing to Iran's nuclear programme, saying it was the "future and destiny" for a country whose fossil fuels would one day run out.

Khamanei also lashed out at "superficial and narrow-minded" critics who have warned the drive could come at too great a cost for Iran, saying such comments only served to encourage the enemy.

"Nuclear energy is the future and destiny of the country," state television quoted him as saying in a speech in Tehran on Saturday.

The television said Khamenei "criticised some who, with superficial and narrow-minded views, say that nuclear energy is not necessary for the country at this cost."

He said Iran's huge oil and gas reserves "would not last forever".

"If a nation does not care about the future of its energy, it must remain dependent on the domineering powers," he said in allusion to Western governments.

Iran is the world's fourth biggest producer of crude and has the second largest natural gas reserves after Russia, although it lags well behind other countries in terms of gas exports.

"The reason for the powers' objection to the Iranian nation's achievement of nuclear energy, even though they use it themselves, is that they want to take hold of the destiny of the world's energy," said Khamenei.

A widely reported study published in December by the academic Roger Stern of Johns Hopkins University in the United States said Iran could soon face its own energy crunch owing to failing infrastructure and lack of investment.

Khamenei's intervention comes as pressure mounts from Western countries for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment, a process that can be used both to make fuel for nuclear power stations and the core of an atomic weapon.

But there has also been an intensification of diplomacy in recent weeks, with chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani holding talks with EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana while attending the Munich security conference.

The United States accuses Iran of seeking a nuclear weapon, a charge denied by Tehran which insists its atomic programme is peaceful and that it has every right to the full nuclear fuel cycle.

Although Washington has said it wants the nuclear standoff resolved through diplomacy, it has never ruled out military action to thwart Iran's atomic drive.

"In this path, one should not be frightened by the enemy... One should be strong against the enemy. Any expression of weakness will make the enemy bolder," said Khamenei.

Voices have been raised in parliament and the press in recent weeks over the confrontational stance of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on the nuclear issue, which they said has come at too great a diplomatic cost.

"Some people with their comments exaggerate problems that do not exist in the country. This encourages the enemy. This is wrong," said Khamenei.

[Nutcase]

Iran readies gas for enriching uranium: diplomats

VIENNA (AFP) - Iran has moved feedstock gas needed to start uranium enrichment into a nuclear plant at the centre of a crisis over Tehran's nuclear programme, diplomats said.

Iran moved the uranium gas (uranium hexafluoride, UF6) early this month from a conversion facility at Isfahan into the underground Natanz plant in central Iran where it last month started installing the centrifuge machines which enrich uranium, the diplomats told AFP.


Uranium is enriched to be civilian reactor fuel but can also make the explosive core of atom bombs. The UN Security Council imposed sanctions in December to force Iran to halt all enrichment work.


"A container of UF6 was moved to Natanz at the beginning of the month so that they can spin some centrifuges with gas if they want to," one diplomat said in Vienna.


The diplomat said some nine tons of UF6 was in the container, enough feedstock gas to make at least one atom bomb if fully refined.


Another diplomat who closely monitors the Iranian program confirmed the development.


Both asked not to be named due to the sensitivity of the information.


While Iran has not started running the centrifuges, bringing the uranium gas into the plant was a "provocative" act, non-proliferation analyst Mark Fitzpatrick said.


"Running centrifuges with UF6 is not the act of a country that seeks compromise," said Fitzpatrick, of London's International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).


The news comes with Iran's nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani set to meet in Vienna on Tuesday with Mohammed ElBaradei, head of the UN nuclear watchdog, amid spiralling tensions over the Iranian nuclear programme.


Iran refuses to abandon enrichment but Larijani has suggested a compromise that Tehran place a formal limit on the degree of its enrichment as a guarantee that it is not seeking an atomic bomb.


ElBaradei is to report this week on whether Iran has honoured a UN Security Council deadline for it to halt the sensitive nuclear fuel work.


The report could lead to tougher measures being imposed on Tehran by the international community.


Meanwhile, in what might be a political signal, Russia announced Monday that Iran's first atomic power plant, which Moscow is building, could be delayed due to financing and equipment supply problems.


Meanwhile, in a sign of a determined effort by Iran to get Natanz working, non-aligned diplomats in Vienna quoted Iranian atomic agency chief Gholamreza Aghazadeh telling them that Tehran is seeking to install one 164-centrifuge unit per week at the underground site.


Aghazadeh told the non-aligned envoys visiting Iran in early February that he hoped "the goal of installation of one cascade (164 centrifuges) per week could be realised," according to a report by the diplomats obtained by AFP on Monday.


Iran started work in late January on installing 3,000 centrifuges at the heavily bunkered Natanz site, as it moves towards industrial-level enrichment of uranium, diplomats have told AFP.


Iran had said a year ago that it had wanted the 3,000 installed by March 2007 but technical problems have apparently delayed this timetable.

"Iran has not really mastered enrichment capabilities yet," said the diplomat who closely monitors the Iranian program.

The diplomat said Iran would have problems picking up the pace from the research level enrichment it is doing above ground at a pilot plant in Natanz to industrial work with thousands of centrifuges at the huge underground site.

"The cascades would run for a day or two but then grind to a halt because too many centrifuges would be breaking down and could not be replaced fast enough," the diplomat said.

[Rasputin]

مدير كل آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى در گفت*وگو با يك روزنامه انگليسى گفت ايران شش ماه با غني*سازى اورانيوم در مقياس صنعتى فاصله دارد.
محمد البرادعى در گفت*وگو با روزنامه ,فايننشال*تايمز, تصريح كرد تهران به احتمال زياد مهلت سازمان ملل در روز چهارشنبه براى تعليق غني*سازى اورانيوم را ناديده مي*گيرد.
وى قرار است امروز با على لاريجاني،* دبير شوراى عالى امنيت ملى ايران و مذاكره*كننده ارشد هسته*اى اين كشور ديدار كند و يك روز بعد گزارش خود را به شوراى حكام آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى ارائه دهد.
مدير كل آژانس اتمى گفت ايران اكنون به دانش فنى مهم راه*اندازى برنامه آزمايشى هسته*اى دست يافته و اين مسئله به عقب بازنمي*گردد.
وى افزود: ,شما نمي*توانيد دانش را بمباران كنيد.,
البرادعى گفت، سيستم*هاى جاسوسى آمريكا و انگليس تخمين زده بودند ايران پنج تا 10 سال با توليد سلاح هسته*اى فاصله دارد و درباره ,هوچي*گرى, عليه پيشرفت هسته*اى ايران هشدار داد.
مدير كل آژانس اتمى گفت حتى اگر نگرانى مبنى بر دستيابى تهران به دانش فنى غني*سازى اورانيوم ,شش ماه پيش معتبر بود، امروز ديگر معتبر نيست زيرا ايران دستكم شش ماه است كه در حال استفاده از اين سانتريفوژها است.,
وى تصريح كرد: ,با اين حال بين دستيابى به دانش غني*سازى و توليد بمب تفاوت زيادى وجود دارد.,
البرادعى اظهار داشت ايران مي*تواند به توان نصب سه هزار سانتريفوژ در عرض چند ماه دست يابد.
وى افزود: ,ممكن است شش ماه يا يك سال طول بكشد. وضعيت ايده*آل، اطمينان از اين مسئله است كه هيچ توان صنعتى وجود نداشته باشد و اينكه بازرسى كامل (از تاسيسات هسته*اى ايران) وجود داشته باشد.,
مدير كل آژانس اتمى اضافه كرد ايران در حال حاضر يك آبشار 164 عددى را در نطنز نصب كرده و اينكه آزمايشات ايران با دو آبشار 164 عددى ديگر در برنامه آزمايشى درست عمل كرده است.
اين در حالى است كه على لاريجاني، مذاكره*كننده ارشد هسته*اى ايران امروز براى گفت*وگو با البرادعى عازم وين شد.
البرادعى به فايننشال*تايمز گفت: ,من به تلاشهاى دقايق آخر براى متقاعد كردن آنها (ايرانيها) كه يافتن راهى براى بازگشت به مذاكرات به نفع آنها است، ادامه مي*دهم. اگر اين مسئله رخ ندهد و اگر من رخداد اين مسئله را يك شبه شاهد نباشم، مجبور به ارائه گزارشى منفى خواهم شد.,
وى افزود البته تا روز پنجم مارس كه شوراى حكام آژانس نشست خود را برگزار مي*كند، چشم*انداز موفقيت ديپلماتيك وجود دارد.
مدير كل آژانس تاكيد كرد: ,تجربه ما بدون استثنا اين است كه تحريم*ها به تنهايى نمي*تواند كارايى داشته باشد و در بيشتر موارد حكومت را تندروتر مي*كند و به افرادى ضربه مي*زند كه قرار نيست ضربه بخورند.,
وى گفت: ,اگر شما فضايى ايجاد كنيد كه ايران احساس انزوا كند كه در آن ايران با تحريم*هاى بيشتر روبرو شود، آنگاه برخى از بدترين سناريوها ممكن است رخ دهند زيرا آنگاه به تندروها فرصت رهبرى داده*ايد.,
البرادعى افزود حل چنين مشكلاتى دشوارتر است زيرا كشورهاى دارنده تسليحات هسته*اى از اجراى تعهدات خود مبنى بر خلع سلاح خوددارى مي*كنند.
وى تاكيد كرد: ,هنگامى كه شما در انگليس شاهد برنامه ارتقاى موشك ترايدنت هستيد كه انگليس را به سوى قرن 21 با بازدارنده هسته*اى مي*برد، آنگاه براى ما دشوار است كه به ديگران بگوييم بازدارنده*هاى هسته*اى واقعا براى شما خوب نيستند.,
به نظر البرادعى تعليق برنامه ,تحقيق و توسعه, فعاليت*هاى غني*سازى ديگر مسئله واقعى نيست. مسئله با اهميت*تر براى او اطمينان از اين مسئله است كه تهران به توان غني*سازى صنعتى با سه هزار سانتريفوژ است نيابد، كار بازرسان سازمان ملل را محدود كند يا از پيمان منع گسترش تسليحات هسته*اى خارج شود.
وى افزود: ,حتى اگر ايرانيها قصد توليد سلاح هسته*اى نداشته باشند اين راهى است كه مطمئنا آن را در پيش مي*گيرند، اگر به گزينه نظامى متوسل شويد آنگاه تكرار كره شمالى (كه به سلاح هسته*اى دست يافت) و يا تكرار عراق را خواهيد داشت كه اينها براى ما به عنوان انسان*هاى متمدن دستاوردهاى بزرگى نيستند.,
مدير كل آژانس بار ديگر بر ايده خود مبنى بر تعليق غني*سازى اورانيوم از سوى ايران و همزمان توقف اعمال تحريم*هاى سازمان ملل عليه اين كشور اشاره كرد و افزود اين ايده به دو طرف اجازه اقدام همزمان و نه درخواست از يكديگر را مي*دهد.
وى گفت: ,اين مسئله*اى است كه چگونه در عين آبرودارى دو طرف را به پاى ميز مذاكره بنشانيم. مسئله ايران تنها هنگامى حل مي*شود كه آمريكا تصميم تعامل مستقيم با ايران را بگيرد، مسئله هسته*اى تنها بخشى از مشكلات است.,

[Rasputin]

Iran has rejected claims by Russian officials that it has failed to meet payments for work on the Bushehr nuclear plant in southern Iran.
Russian officials had warned the $1bn (£513m) deal might be delayed.

Moscow last year backed limited UN sanctions on Iran for refusing to halt uranium enrichment after objections to the Bushehr deal were dropped.

BBC correspondents say Moscow may be wary of delivering nuclear fuel next month, as scheduled in the deal.

Iran insists its nuclear programme is for purely peaceful purposes but the US suspects it of seeking nuclear arms.

UN deadline

Under the Bushehr deal, Russia would have started the fuel shipments by March, launched the plant in September and begun to generate electricity by November.

Russia's Federal Nuclear Power Agency spokesman Sergey Novikov said the "launch schedule definitely could be affected" by the reported delay in payments.

One unnamed Russian official told Associated Press Iran was blaming "technical reasons" for the delay.

But Mohammad Saeedi, the deputy head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, said: "Iran has had no delay whatsoever in making payments for the Bushehr nuclear power plant to the Russian company."

A UN Security Council deadline is due to expire on Wednesday for Iran to stop the enrichment of uranium.

The United States is pushing hard for the international community to take tough action.

BBC diplomatic correspondent Jonathan Marcus says it would be uncomfortable for the Russians if they began to supply nuclear fuel to Tehran before the International Atomic Energy Agency had given the country's nuclear programme a clean bill of health.

He says many analysts see the reports that Tehran is falling behind on its payments as a pretext to delay the delivery.

The fuel amounts to approximately 100 tonnes of partially enriched uranium.

The BBC's Richard Galpin in Moscow says experts believe Iran has a shortage of uranium and this fuel could be diverted and enriched to weapons-grade material.

[Rasputin]

Iran 'six months from mass uranium enrichment'

Iran could be as little as six months away from being able to enrich uranium on an industrial scale, having mastered the technology since last August, the head of the UN's nuclear watchdog warned in an interview published today. However, Mohamed ElBaradei, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director general, stressed that Iran was still years away from developing a nuclear weapon.
"The intelligence, the British intelligence, the American intelligence, is saying that Iran is still years, five to 10 years, away from developing a weapon," he told the Financial Times in an interview on the eve of Wednesday's deadline for Tehran to suspend its enrichment work. But Mr ElBaradei said he expected Iran to ignore the deadline.

He said Iran could install a network of 3,000 centrifuges - enough to begin producing fissile material for a bomb - within months. "It could be six months, it could be a year," Mr ElBaradei said. However, he added, "there's a big difference between acquiring the knowledge for enrichment and developing a bomb".
Since August last year Iran has been using centrifuges at a pilot plant in the town of Natanz to enrich uranium. It has refused to halt this process, insisting its purposes are purely peaceful.

Mr ElBaradei also said that the efforts of the IAEA to prevent nuclear proliferation were not helped by Britain's decision to update its Trident nuclear deterrent. "When you see here in the UK the programme for modernising Trident, which basically gets the UK far into the 21st century with a nuclear deterrent, it is difficult then for us to turn around and tell everybody else that nuclear deterrents are really no good for you," he said.

Speculation has been growing that the US is drawing up contingency plans for an air strike against Iran's nuclear programme, despite repeated public denials by the Bush administration. Last night, the BBC reported that a list of targets had been compiled and that air strikes would be triggered if Iran was linked to a major attack on American forces in Iraq, or if US intelligence assessed that Tehran posed a "perceived nuclear threat" to the US.

[Rasputin]

دبير شوراى عالى امنيت ملى ايران هشدار داد كه هر اقدامى براى واداركردن تهران به توقف غني*سازى اورانيوم با پاسخى مناسب روبرو ميشود.

خبرگزارى فرانسه گزارش داد كه در شرف ضرب*الاجل سازمان ملل متحد براى توقف غني*سازى اورانيوم, على لاريجانى گفت: ايران آماده مذاكره درباره نگراني*ها بر سر مساله هسته*اى خود است.

لاريجانى در پاسخ به پرسشى درباره فشار آمريكا براى پاسخ شديدتر سازمان ملل متحد گفت: هر كسى كه به اقدامات غيرمتعارف و غير قانونى علاقمند باشد، قطعا پاسخى مناسب دريافت مي*كند.

وى افزود: اگر آنها مايلند وارد رينگ بكس شوند، با مشكلاتى هم روبرو مي*شوند.
لاريجانى ادامه داد: اگر نگراني*هايى درباره انحراف احتمالى فعاليت*هاى ايران وجود دارد، مي*توانيم اين نگراني*ها را پاى ميز مذاكره حل*وفصل كنيم.

وى با تاكيد بر عدم تعليق غني*سازى اورانيوم توسط ايران گفت: مساله مهم تعليق نيست. آنچه بايد حايز اهميت باشد، اين است كه فعاليت*هاى ايران در چارچوب آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى و تحت نظارت بازرسان آژانس باشد.

على لاريجاني، سه شنبه با محمد البرادعي، مديركل آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى و ساير مقامات كشورهاى غربى در وين ديدار كرد. هرچند نتيجه نهايى مذاكرات پشت درهاى بسته هنوز مشخص نشده است.

[Rasputin]

يک کارشناس سازمان انرژی اتمی: اين کار بشدت تحريک آميز است
با انتقال 9 تن گاز "هگزافلورايد"
کليد توليد بمب اتم ايران
در پايگاه نطنز زده شده
ديپلمات های مقيم وين: اين اقدامات ايران نشانه آنست که آنها اهل مذاکره نيستند!




سايت سازمان انرژی اتمی، شب گذشته و با آشکار شدن بی نتيجه ماندن مذاکرات لاريجانی و البرادعی، ضمن انتشار اخبار دقيق تری در باره آغاز مرحله جديد غنی سازی اورانيوم در نطنز اصفهان، مدعی شد که اين مرحله از غنی سازی، سرآغاز توليد بمب اتم در نطنز است.

اين سايت نوشت:

به گزارش منابع خبری از وين، يک کانتينر حاوی 9 تن گاز "هگزافلورايد" اورانيوم به مرکز نطنز جهت آغاز غنی سازی منتقل شده است. مقدار گاز فوق در صورتی که صحيح فرآوری شود اورانيوم لازم جهت توليد يک بمب اتمی را تامين می کند. ديپلمات ها در وين نيز اعلام کردند که چنين اقدامی از سوی ايران حاوی نشانه های مثبت برای آغاز مذاکره از سوی ايران نيست.

يک کارشناس آژانس نيز اعلام کرد با توجه به اينکه هنوز سانتريقيوژها در نطنز نصب نشده است حمل گاز به نطنز اقدامی کاملا تحريک آميز از سوی ايران است.

از سوی ديگر روسيه در اقدامی که ميتوان آنرا ديپلماتيک تلقی کرد اعلام کرد راه اندازی اولين نيروگاه اتمی ايران به دلايل مالی و فنی با تاخير مواجه خواهد شد.

ضمن اينکه قرائن نشان ميدهد که ايران مصمم است با نصب 164 سانتريقيوژ در هر هفته نيروگاه نطنز را هرچه سريعتر راه اندازی کند.

[Rasputin]

البرادعی:
آشکارا اعلام می کنم
ايران خواسته شورای امنيت را رد کرد
من آخرين تلاش های خودم را در ديدار با لاريجانی کردم
حمله نظامی به ايران را
صد در صد رد نمی کنم




در پايان مذاکرات روز گذشته علی لاريجانی و البرادعی رئيس آژانس انرژی اتمی در وين پايتخت اتريش، البرادعی در يک مصاحبه خبری با "فايننشال تايمز" با لحنی نااميدانه نسبت به نتايج مذاکرات با ايران گفت:

دراين چند ماه تلاش های زيادی از سوی اشخاص مختلف صورت گرفت تا راه حلی برای اين بحران پيدا شود که در عين محقق کردن خواسته های جامعه جهانی پرستيژ ايران نيز حفظ شود.

فايننشال تايمز: همه گمان می برند که شما در گزارش روز چهارشنبه (امروز) خود اعلام خواهيد کرد ايران غنی سازی را متوقف نکرده است. آيا حدس درستی است؟

البرادعی: بله من آشکارا اعلام خواهم کرد که ايران خواسته شورای امنيت را برآورده نکرده است. البته من در مذاکرات فردا(امروز- چهارشنبه) با لاريجانی آخرين تلاش ها خود را هم خواهم کرد تا آنها را قانع کنم که مذاکره به نفع آنهاست، اما در صورت عدم پذيرش آن گزارش من منفی خواهد بود.

فاينانشال تايمز: شما نگران اقدام نظامی و حمله هوايی آمريکا و اسراييل به ايران نيستيد؟

البرادعی: من نميتوانم صد در صد عدم وقوع حمله را تضمين کنم، چرا که مرتب در اين مورد مطالبی خوانده ميشود. من نميدانم که اين مطالب مبالغه است يا هسته هايی از حقيقت را نيز در بر دارد. اما من مطمئن هستم که چنين اتفاقی يک فاجعه وحشتناک خواهد بود.

[Rasputin]

The tension over Iran's nuclear programme is increasing, with the expiry on Wednesday of a Security Council deadline for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment.

At the same time, the BBC has reported that the United States has drawn up plans for an attack on Iran to cover two contingencies - the confirmed development of nuclear weapons by Iran, or backing by Iran for a major attack on US troops in Iraq.

The first contingency is full of uncertainties. Iran says it is simply exercising its right to provide fuel to make nuclear energy and that it has no intention of building a bomb.

The problem is that the same technology used to make fuel for nuclear power can then be developed to make fuel for a nuclear explosion.

So how can Iran's intentions be judged?

The signs are that Iran will not comply with the Security Council demands

The UN Security Council has demanded that Iran halt its activities in order to allow for negotiations. Iran has been offered civilian nuclear technology for power if it gives up enrichment of fuel itself. The council has imposed sanctions designed to limit Iran's access to nuclear technology.

Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says that there can be no pre-conditions for talks. Indeed, he has proposed that Western governments suspend enrichment themselves before any talks.

The signs are that Iran will not comply with the Security Council demands and that therefore further sanctions will be considered. The US will press for them. Russia and China will question them.

Mutual freeze?

The UN's nuclear agency, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is to report this week on Iranian compliance with the Security Council demand.

The IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei warned against 'hype' over Iran's nuclear abilities


The head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, is calling for a mutual freeze - by Iran on its nuclear development and by the Security Council on sanctions. No freeze is likely.

Mr ElBaradei told the Financial Times this week that Iran might be five or 10 years away from developing a nuclear bomb. He warned against "hype" over Iran's nuclear activities.

Meanwhile, the US continues to apply pressure on Iran and is expected to move a second aircraft carrier battle group into the Gulf region soon.

US Vice-President Dick Cheney said in Newsweek magazine that American allies in the region "want us to have a major presence there" and that the carriers would send " a strong signal" that the US would "work with friends and allies to oppose the Iranian threat".

Iraq linkage

A new element emerging over the last couple of weeks is the linkage the US is making between Iran and events inside Iraq. It has publicised its contention that Iran is behind sophisticated technology that is being used by some Shia groups against US and British forces in Iraq.


The US claims Iran is supplying weapons to Iraq insurgents

The timing of this claim, rejected by Iran, is significant, because it ties in with the expiry of the Security Council demand on 21 February. It adds a new component to the equation.

The US can now claim a casus belli if there is a major attack on US forces in Iraq that can be linked to Iran. Such linkage of course is not easy to prove, and even the evidence that the US has produced so far has been challenged.

But the legality of any attack against Iran will be hard to establish, to say the least, without clear evidence, especially as the evidence against Iraq proved unreliable.

Danger

All this makes for an extremely delicate and dangerous period ahead.

It does not mean that a US attack on Iran is imminent. The BBC information is that the US has chosen targets in Iran and has considered two scenarios for an attack.

The targets include not only Iranian nuclear sites but Iranian missile sites and other major military infrastructure.

This would be in line with US doctrine that, in a conflict, an attack has to cover a range of military targets. This happened in the two Gulf wars and Israel adopted similar tactics in its attacks on Hezbollah last year.

But it is not an either-or situation.

Diplomacy

There is a diplomatic effort at play here as well.

Washington hopes that its pressure will trigger not necessarily a war but a debate inside Iran that will either lead to a change of policy (maybe through a change in government) or a much slower and more cautious Iranian approach.

It is also not clear that within the Bush administration these days there is total support for any attack on Iran. The influence of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice seems to be growing at the expense of Vice-President Cheney.

We have seen the US entering negotiations over North Korea, leading to an interim agreement under which the North's claimed nuclear weapon is being left to one side.

[Rasputin]

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran on Tuesday dismissed threats to make it drop its nuclear program and offered to guarantee in negotiations that it would not seek atomic weapons.


But it said it would not suspend uranium enrichment as a precondition for talks.

The U.N. Security Council, which in December banned transfers of technology and expertise to Tehran's nuclear program, may weigh broader sanctions if Tehran, as expected, does not stop enriching uranium for atomic fuel by Wednesday.

Iranian chief negotiator Ali Larijani, speaking after talks with the U.N. nuclear watchdog director, said Iran would not suspend nuclear work as the West demands. The West suspects Tehran is conducting an atomic weapons project disguised as a bid for peaceful atomic energy.

"Maybe there are certain groups or countries willing to coerce Iran ... (But) Iran's nuclear dossier cannot be resolved through force and pressure," said Ali Larijani, alluding mainly to the United States.

Iran says its program is purely peaceful. "If the other side expresses concerns about possible deviations of Iran's activities in the future, we have no objections to settling these concerns at the negotiating table," he told reporters.

"We would give the necessary assurances and guarantees (in negotiations) that there will be no deviation ever toward nuclear weapons (in Iran)," said Larijani, who is due to hold talks in Italy on Wednesday.

He echoed Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in ruling out a suspension of uranium enrichment as a precondition for negotiations, which six world powers said could lead to major trade and diplomatic benefits for the Islamic Republic.

"Suspension is a political decision, not a technical approach," he said. "(But) we are a country with no intentions to develop nuclear weapons. We want to work within the framework of the NPT (nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty)."

IRAN STANDS FIRM

Larijani said he had "constructive" talks with International Atomic Energy Agency director Mohamed ElBaradei on ways of reviving talks with Western powers. But he offered no sign of Iranian readiness to compromise on the issue of suspension.

ElBaradei, whose agency has been unable to verify Iranian nuclear work is wholly peaceful after three years of investigations, is expected to report to the Security Council that Tehran has defied a 60-day deadline to suspend enrichment.

But his report was now more likely to appear on Thursday, not Wednesday as expected, a diplomat close to the IAEA said.

ElBaradei has urged both sides to take a "timeout," simultaneously suspending enrichment and sanctions action to enable negotiations.

A diplomat close to the IAEA said that Iranian officials were sounding positive in private about a "timeout" and hoped EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who led earlier talks with Larijani, would be authorized to discuss it with him.

Western officials have dismissed previous such signs of Iran's flexibility as stalling by while it pursues enrichment.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki told a news conference in Turkey Larijani and Solana had reached agreement that the negotiations should be resumed.

The Security Council in any case is not expected to take action before the next meeting of the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors on March 5-9, leaving a little more time for dialogue to avert a feared U.S.-Iran conflict, the diplomat told Reuters.

"The Council will want to study the report until then, and that's when the window of opportunity for talks could close."

Washington has not ruled out military action and has built up aircraft carrier strike forces in the Gulf near Iran, but says it is seeking a diplomatic solution, not planning a war.

The British Broadcasting Corporation quoted unnamed diplomatic sources as saying contingency planning for any U.S. attack went beyond targeting atomic sites to include most of Iran's military infrastructure.

In Washington, Defense Department spokesman Bryan Whitman called the BBC report "ludicrous."

Larijani, echoing other Iranian leaders, said Washington would pay dearly if it attacked Iran.

"If they are inclined to move toward a boxing ring, they will have problems too. Anyone interested in a non-conventional or irrational move (against Iran) would definitely receive the appropriate response," he said.

"But if they are willing to sit down at a chessboard, both sides could come to a (negotiated) result."

ElBaradei has cited intelligence estimates that Iran remains four to eight years away from mastering the means to assemble an atom bomb, assuming it wanted one.

[Rasputin]

The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, today rejected international demands for his country to suspend its uranium enrichment programme as a UN deadline to do so approached.
The UN security council has said Iran must cease its work on enrichment - a process in the manufacture of both nuclear fuel and material for nuclear weapons - by tomorrow or face further economic sanctions.

Tehran said that it wanted to resume negotiations over its nuclear ambitions, but Mr Ahmadinejad refused to stop its enrichment programme unless western countries did so too.

He told a crowd of thousands in northern Iran: "Justice demands that those who want to hold talks with us shut down their nuclear fuel cycle programme too. Then, we can hold dialogue under a fair atmosphere."
The US brushed Mr Ahmadinejad's suggestion aside. Reuters said the White House spokesman Tony Snow asked reporters: "Do you believe that's a serious offer?"

On December 23 2006 the security council agreed to impose limited sanctions against Iran and gave the country 60 days to halt enrichment or face additional measures.

The UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is to report on the state of Iran's nuclear programme tomorrow and is expected to say Iran has defied the deadline.

The IAEA chief, Mohamed ElBaradei, met Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, today in Vienna.

Speaking after the meeting, Mr Larijani warned the US against escalating the situation. "If they ... move into the boxing ring, they would have problems. But if they sit at the chess table, then both sides would come to a result," he said.

"Anybody interested in ... irrational moves ... would definitely receive an appropriate response."

While saying his country was prepared to deliver "assurances that there would be no deviation ... toward a nuclear weapons programme", he offered no new suggestions. He said the key demand for Tehran to suspend enrichment was just a "pretext" to put political pressure on his country.

In an interview published today in the Financial Times, Mr ElBaradei said Iran could be as little as six months away from being able to enrich uranium on an industrial scale and that he did not expect Tehran to meet tomorrow's deadline.

The US and several of its western allies believe Iran is using its nuclear programme to produce an atomic weapon, but Tehran says its aim is to generate electricity.

Mr ElBaradei said in the FT interview that, according to US and British intelligence, Iran was still years away from developing a nuclear weapon.

But speculation has been growing that the US is drawing up contingency plans for an air strike against Iran's nuclear programme, despite repeated public denials by the Bush administration.

Last night, the BBC reported that a list of targets had been compiled and that air strikes would be triggered if US intelligence assessed that Tehran posed a "perceived nuclear threat" to the US or Iran was linked to a major attack on American forces in Iraq.

The US has put further pressure on Iran by sending a second aircraft carrier to the Gulf region. The John C Stennis and warships in its group arrived in the area yesterday.

[Rasputin]

سخنگوى آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى چهارشنبه*شب به راديو آمريكا گفت:
ايران هنوز براى تغيير سياست در برنامه*هاى هسته*اى خود فرص*ت دارد.

"مليسا فلمينگ" افزود: البرداعى همزمان گزارش خود را به شوراى حكام آژانس و به رياست شوراى امنيت سازمان ملل متحد ابلاغ خواهد كرد.

وى افزود:اگر دراين فاصله تغييرى در سياست*هاى ايران رخ*دهد، البرداعى مي*تواند دراجلاس شوراى حكام بطور شفاهى اعضا را در جريان قراردهد و امكانى براى مذاكره بيابد.

سخنگوى آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى گفت: بنابر گزارشها، ايران هنوز نشانى از سازش در اين زمينه نشان نداده و قطعنامه ۱۷۳۷شوراى امنيت سازمان ملل متحد را غيرقانونى خوانده و بارها تكرار كرده كه برنامه*هاى هسته*اى ايران براى مقاصد مسالمت آميز است.

مليسا فلمينگ گفت: با اينكه البرداعى گزارش خود را آماده كرده است اما همچنان به مذاكره و گفت*وگو با مقام*هاى ايران ادامه مي*دهد.

وى افزود: البرادعى در محل اقامت شخصى خود با لاريجانى ملاقات كرد. در اين ديدار مسايل بسيارى مطرح شد از جمله اينكه ايران چگونه مي*تواند كمك كند تا آژانس مسايل عمده حل نشده در برنامه*هاى هسته*اى ايران را حل كند. آنها همچنين وضعيت كلى را بررسى كردند.

فلمينگ گفت: نمي*توانم در مورد جزييات اين ملاقات توضيحي*بدهم اما تا پنجم مارس و حتى اگر ممكن باشد بعد از آن البرداعى به مذاكره با ايران در مورد برنامه*هاى هسته*اى آن كشور ادامه خواهد داد.

اين راديو افزود: گزارش محمد البرداعى در شوراى امنيت از سوى ۱۵عضو اين شورا بررسى خواهد شد.

راديو آمريكا گفت: چين و روسيه طرف مبادلات بازرگانى با ايران هستند و از آغاز مخالف تحريم*هاى شديد عليه ايران*بودند.

اين راديو افزود: آمريكا و متحدانش به ايران شك دارند و معتقدند كه هدف نهايى ايران دستيابى به سلاح*هاى هسته*اى و عضويت در باشگاه هسته*اى جهان خواهد بود.

اين اتهام درحالى بيان مي*شود كه ايران بارها بطور رسمى اعلام كرده است كه تهران بي*هيچ وجه به دنبال دستيابى به سلاح*هاى هسته*اى نيست و اين مساله را مغاير اعتقادات و دستورات دين اسلام مي*داند.

على لاريجانى دبيرشوراى عالى امنيت ملى ايران نيز بتازگى در ديداربا مقامات اروپايى اعلام كرد كه تهران براى ادامه برنامه*هاى صلح آميز هسته*اى خود حاضر است به جامعه بين*الملل تضمين*هاى لازم و مورد نظر را بدهد.

[Rasputin]

NEW DELHI - India has banned the export to Iran of all material, equipment and technology which could contribute to Tehran's nuclear program, the government said Wednesday.

The restrictions bring India, a longtime Iranian ally, into compliance with the U.N. Security Council resolution passed in December that imposed limited sanctions on Tehran for its refusal to stop enriching uranium, which could be used to produce nuclear fuel or materials for a nuclear bomb.

India's Trade Ministry said it is banning the "direct or indirect export and import of all items, materials, equipment, goods and technology which could contribute to Iran's enrichment-related, reprocessing or heavy water related activities."

The government's announcement came as the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog body, was putting the finishing touches on a report expected to confirm that Iran is continuing its uranium enrichment activities, a finding that could trigger harsher U.N. Security Council sanctions.

Indian officials have in the past said that they do not want Iran to develop nuclear weapons, but at the same time stressed that more time was needed for diplomacy to resolve the Iran nuclear crisis.

Communist political parties crucial to the parliamentary majority of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's coalition have accused the government of bowing to pressure from the United States to act against Iran.

The U.S. and its allies suspect that Iran is using its nuclear program to produce an atomic weapon — charges Iran denies, saying its aim is to generate electricity.

[Rasputin]

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Critics of Iran's nuclear program are "bullying" Iran, its current president and a former president declared Friday, as they put up a united front a day after the United Nations' nuclear watchdog issued a report that opens the way for additional sanctions against Iran.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and influential former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani lashed out in separate speeches Friday at Western countries and the U.N. Security Council, though without naming them directly.

Their comments appeared as senior diplomats from the five permanent Security Council members and Germany prepared to meet on Monday in London to start work on a new resolution to try to pressure Iran to suspend its nuclear program.

U.S. Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns, who announced the London meeting in Washington, said Iran was "effectively thumbing its nose at the international community."

The speeches by Ahmadinejad and Rafsanjani appeared to show that the Iranian ruling establishment is closing ranks in the face of new measures against Iran.

Divisions emerged over Ahmadinejad's handling of the nuclear standoff following the council's adoption of limited economic sanctions against Iran in December.

Some Iranians believe Ahmadinejad has been too antagonistic of the U.S. and its allies. Rafsanjani in recent weeks has emerged as a high-level advocate of a more conciliatory stance toward the West in the nuclear dispute.

Ahmadinejad told thousands of people gathered in a northern Iranian town, "The Iranian nation has resisted all bullies and corrupt powers and it will fully defend its rights," state television quoted him as saying.

The hardline president appeared to dismiss the International Atomic Energy Agency report, which said Tehran had expanded its program of uranium enrichment and continued to build a heavy water reactor and related facilities. (Read the full report)

"If a few states do not believe that Iran's nuclear activities are peaceful, this is of no importance whatsoever," state television quoted the president as telling a rally in Fuman.

"This is the spirit of arrogance and culture of aggressive powers," the official Islamic Republic News Agency also quoted Ahmadinejad as saying during the same speech.

"If you pull back, they will push ahead but if you stand against them, because of this resistance, they will back off."

Meanwhile, the former President Rafsanjani told worshippers gathered for Friday prayers in Tehran that Western countries would fail to achieve anything by "bullying" Iran.

Rafsanjani, a high-ranking cleric, holds seats on two of Iran's most important government bodies.

"Following yesterday's report, they again began a harsh steps and threats while thinking about another resolution," Rafsanjani said in the speech broadcast live by state radio, adding "they will get nowhere this way."

The IAEA's report follows the expiration Wednesday of a 60-day grace period for Iran to halt uranium enrichment.

In a warning to the U.S. and its Western allies who want Iran to roll back its nuclear program, Rafsanjani said, "If you continue this bullying way, you will definitely make many troubles for yourselves, the world and the region."

But he also reiterated Iran's offer for talks. "We -- all of us, our officials, our leader -- are ready to provide you full assurances."

Three demands
The Security Council issued three demands to Iran when it adopted its resolution December 23 -- freeze uranium enrichment, stop building heavy water facilities and fully cooperate with the IAEA.

The U.S. and its Western allies have insisted Iran must suspend enrichment before it will enter any negotiations over its nuclear program -- a condition Tehran has rejected as it pushes ahead with developing its enrichment facilities.

Iran insists that its nuclear program is peaceful, but the U.S. and other Western countries accuse it of using it as a cover to develop weapons.

Among the permanent council members meeting in London on Monday, Britain and France are likely to join the U.S. in a call for harsher sanctions than Russia and China, which both have strong commercial ties to Tehran, will accept.

Diplomats said Thursday that new measures under consideration include a mandatory travel ban against individuals on the U.N. list, new individuals and companies subject to sanctions, additional prohibited items, economic measures such as a ban on export guarantees to Iran, and an expansion of the nuclear embargo to an arms embargo.

U.S. Undersecretary of State Burns said a new resolution was needed to "see Iran repudiated again" but said it was too soon to say what provisions the resolution might contain.

Russia's U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said he had "no substantive comment" on the IAEA report. "We should not lose sight of the goal -- and the goal is not to have a resolution or to impose sanctions," Churkin said. "The goal is to accomplish a political outcome."

Council unity
Several council diplomats have stressed the importance of maintaining council unity on a new resolution -- even if means sacrificing tougher sanctions.

Stressing the importance of unity, U.S. deputy ambassador Jackie Sanders said Thursday "we do need to ratchet up the pressure and Iran needs to see an international community that stays coordinated and showing common purpose to have them stop what they're doing in developing nuclear weapons."

French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy echoed the importance, saying, "unity and firmness are ... the only effective instruments we have to get Iran to turn toward the international community, and away from isolation."

"We support a second resolution, to be passed unanimously by the Security Council, to continue sanctions," he said.

Two diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity because negotiations haven't even started, spoke of an "incremental" strengthening of sanctions in a new resolution to ensure that unity is preserved.

The permanent council members believe the initial sanctions have had some positive effects. Iran now says it wants negotiations, though it still refuses to suspend enrichment.

Whether new sanctions can bring Tehran to comply with the council's demands remains to be seen.

"It's Iran's refusal to talk which right now has gotten Iran in a lot of hot water," said Burns. "Iran is increasingly isolated, and we hope Iran is going to choose negotiations."