Nuclear Crisis

[Rasputin]

Iran's top nuclear negotiator holds talks in Moscow; Khamenei vows Iran will continue

Ali Larijani will meet with Russian Security Council Secretary Igor Ivanov, the agency said.

Following Iran's refusal to halt uranium enrichment, European powers have proposed a draft UN Security Council resolution on sanctions against the country, which the United States wants toughened, but which Russia and China want reduced.

Iran has been at the center of an international controversy over its uranium enrichment work, which some countries suspect is a cover for a nuclear weapons program.

Russia's Foreign Ministry said Wednesday that the working visit to Moscow of another Iranian diplomat for talks on the nuclear issue has been postponed. Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki was expected to visit the Russian capital on November 9-10.

Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme Leader announced on Wednesday that the Islamic Republic would continue to push ahead with its controversial nuclear program despite the heavy costs it may entail.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said at a gathering in the northern city of Semnan that Iran had an "inalienable right" to obtain nuclear capabilities. Parts of his speech were aired on state television.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran has the strength to bring about this unalienable national right, without needing others' assistance or reaching out for other countries' support," he said.

Despite efforts at the United Nations Security Council to adopt a resolution punishing Iran over its decision not to suspend uranium enrichment, Khamenei insisted that the international community overwhelmingly supported Iran's nuclear defiance and opposed the West's current nuclear "monopoly."

"Contrary to the West's propaganda and ballyhoo, the enemies of the Iranian nation, including the United States, are in a weaker position than they were 10 to 15 years ago. The U.S.'s defeat in Iraq, Lebanon, Palestine, and Afghanistan indicate this reality," he said.

"The American government used all its resources and went as far as feigningly accepting the formation of the Palestinian government in order for the Zionist regime to be free of encounters from the Palestinian people; however, the government which is today in power in Palestine does not recognise the legitimacy of the Zionist enemy and is not willing to negotiate with it. This shows the U.S.'s absolute defeat in Palestine," the Supreme Leader added.

Khamenei stated that Iran had successfully "exported" its Islamic Revolution to other Muslim nations.

"The Iranian nation has in reality exported its revolution and is continuing its honourable path with strength, activity, and reliance on the young, intellectual, and aware generation. The Global Arrogance (U.S.) has been forced to retreat in the face of this great nation," he added, Iran Focus reports.

[Rasputin]

Rumsfeld exit lessens threat to nuclear sites, hardliners believe

Iranian hardliners are hailing the US Republican electoral defeat and Donald Rumsfeld's downfall as a symbolic victory that lessens the risk of American military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Sources close to the Islamic republic's theocratic leadership said yesterday that the replacement as US defence secretary of the hawkish Mr Rumsfeld by the more emollient Robert Gates improved the chances of direct talks between Tehran and Washington.

"This will be seen as a sign of two things," said a recently retired senior Iranian diplomat with close ties to the regime. "First, it signals the decline in legitimacy of the policies of President Bush and his fellow hardliner [Mr Rumsfeld] in the Middle East, including on Iran's nuclear programme. Second, Rumsfeld's departure signals the diminishing in power of those believing in military solutions compared with those favouring diplomacy."

Sadegh Zibakalam, a political scientist at Tehran University, said: "With Rumsfeld gone, the possibility of selected strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities is even more remote than before."
Mr Gates was lauded as favouring negotiations with Iran by the influential Aftab website, which is attached to Hasan Rowhani, Iran's former chief nuclear negotiator, who has close official links with the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The website noted with approval Mr Gates's affiliation with James Baker, the former US secretary of state and head of the recently convened Iraq Study Group, who has also voiced support for such contact.

However, talks are more likely to centre on Iraq than on Iran's nuclear programme, which the Bush administration and many others in the west fear is designed to build an atomic bomb. Iranian officials disclosed this week that they are considering a renewed US request for meetings on Iraq, where Iran has strong influence with leaders of the majority Shia population. While that now seems likelier, a breakthrough on the nuclear impasse is as distant as ever, analysts say.

"I don't believe Democrats view the prospect of Iran with nuclear technology as any less of a threat than Republicans do," said Saeed Leylaz, a Tehran-based political analyst. "It may be that the means used by Washington to try and convince Iran to suspend uranium enrichment will be more varied, but other than that I don't believe we are any freer from American pressure, and I don't foresee a strategic change in the relationship."

[Rasputin]

مصاحبه تلویزیونی علی لاریجانی

قطعنامه تحریم ایران

از قطعنامه علیه کره سخت تراست

با سولانا برای تعلیق غنی سازی به یک فرمولی رسیده بودیم

پیروزی دمکرات ها، تصور می کنم روی

تئوری "حمله پیشگیرانه" بوش تاثیر بگذارد



علی لاریجانی در آستانه سفر به مسکو و مذاکره بر سر پیشنهادهای روسیه جهت ایجاد تغییراتی در قطعنامه در دست تهیه شورای امنیت سازمان ملل در گفتگوئی با شبکه دوم سیمای جمهوری اسلامی شرکت کرد.

دبير شوراي امنيت ملي به سئوالاتی که طرح شد پاسخ هائی داد که گرچه هیچیک از این پاسخ ها بیان کننده مسائل پشت پرده مذاکرات و مسائل اتمی ایران نبود، اما حداقل کلام و اصطلاحاتش متفاوت با کلام و اصطلاحات جنجال ساز احمدی نژاد بود.

از مصاحبه مشروح و پرحاشیه علی لاریجانی نکات اساسی آن را استخراج کرده ایم که می خوانید.

لاریجانی در باره انتخابات امریکا گفت:

تصور می کنم با پيروزي دموكرات*ها در انتخابات كنگره امريكا سياست*هاي بوش در زمينه جنگ* طلبي در منطقه تغیير *كند و روي تئوري "اقدام پيشگیرانه" تاثير بگذارد. اروپای امروز با توجه به شرايط منطقه و سست شدن سياست*هاي جنگ*طلبانه آمريكا با روی كار آمدن دموكرات*ها از موقعيت معتبر*تری برخوردار است.

امريكا براي از بين بردن طالبان به افغانستان حمله كرد اما در حال حاضر نه تنها طالبان از بين نرفته است، بلكه بر اساس اطلاعاتي كه ما از پشت پرده اقدامات آن در افغانستان داريم به دنبال كار كردن با طالبان است. حتي در مورد مواد مخدر نيز وضع به همين صورت بوده است. آمريكا در منطقه در باتلاقی گير كرده است كه هيچكس جز ايران نمي*تواند اين وضعيت را برايش حل كند.



درباره مذاکراتی که لاریجانی دراین مدت با اروپائی ها داشته و مردم از مضمون آنها هیچ اطلاعی ندارند، لاریجانی تنها نکته تازه ای که گفت این بود:

" يكي از رهبران اروپايي به من گفت که فايده جنگ آمريكا عليه عراق اين بود كه امریکا ديگر به كشوري حمله نخواهد كرد.همچنین يكي از رهبران اروپا مي*گفت كه اولمرت(نخست وزیر اسرائیل) امروز يك جنازه سياسي است. "

لاریجانی در باره تعلیق غنی سازی اورانیوم که گفته می شد در گفتگو با رئیس سیاست خارجی اتحادیه اروپا به نوعی و با شروطی با آن موافقت کرده بود و به همین دلیل مدتی از مذاکرات حذف و هاشمی ثمره میدان دار مذاکرات شده بود نیز گفت:

" موضوع تعليق را نه به آن صورت كه آن*ها مي*خواستند، اما طي بحث*هاي زيادي با سولانا در اين باره به يك فرمول منطقي رسيديم. در مورد نگراني آن*ها نيز به فرمولي رسيديم. "

درباره قطعنامه در دست تهیه شورای امنیت برای تحریم علیه ایران نیز لاریجانی گفت:

"هيچ سياستمدار عاقلي در صحنه بين*الملل نيست كه پيشنويس قطعنامه شوراي امنيت را تائيد كند. اين پيشنويس چيزي نيست كه به طور واقعی برای ايران انجام شود. اين پيش*نويس در مقايسه با قطعنامه*ای كه عليه كره*شمالی صادر شد، بسيار سخت*تر است در حالی *كه ما با كره*شمالی خيلی فرق داريم. ضمنا در دكترين امنيت ملي ايران سلاح هسته*يي جايي ندارد و نظارت*هاي آژانس را هم به طور كامل پذيرفته*ايم و تاكنون تخلفي از قوانين و مقررات آژانس انجام نداده*ايم. بنابراين آژانس بايد به ما كمك مي*كرد.

وي ادامه داد: من به سولانا گفتم كه اگر ايران غني*سازي را بر اساس ان. پي. تي انجام دهد آيا مرتكب جرمي شده است؟ اگر نشده چرا پرونده ما را به شواري امنيت برديد؟ آن*ها در پاسخ مي*گويند؛ ممكن است شما در آينده به سراغ سلاح هسته* ای برويد.

آن*ها خودشان مي*گويند كه ايران بمب ندارد و اگر زماني بر فرض بخواهد به اين سمت برود به *٥ تا *٧ سال وقت نياز دارد. بنابراين اقدامات آن*ها برای كشاندن مساله به شورای امنيت هيچ مبنای حقوقي ندارد.

ما از اول گفته* بوديم؛ كساني كه مي*خواهند مذاكره كنند داراي اختيار تمام و تصميم*گيرنده باشند. سولانا با اين عنوان به پای ميز مذاكره آمد، اما ظاهرا بعدا با فشار بعضی از كشور*ها مثل آمريكا مجموعه توافق*شده در مذاكرات كنار گذاشته شد.

[Rasputin]

Iranian hardliners are hailing the US Republican electoral defeat and Donald Rumsfeld's downfall as a symbolic victory that lessens the risk of American military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Sources close to the Islamic republic's theocratic leadership said yesterday that the replacement as US defence secretary of the hawkish Mr Rumsfeld by the more emollient Robert Gates improved the chances of direct talks between Tehran and Washington.

"This will be seen as a sign of two things," said a recently retired senior Iranian diplomat with close ties to the regime. "First, it signals the decline in legitimacy of the policies of President Bush and his fellow hardliner [Mr Rumsfeld] in the Middle East, including on Iran's nuclear programme. Second, Rumsfeld's departure signals the diminishing in power of those believing in military solutions compared with those favouring diplomacy."

Sadegh Zibakalam, a political scientist at Tehran University, said: "With Rumsfeld gone, the possibility of selected strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities is even more remote than before."
Mr Gates was lauded as favouring negotiations with Iran by the influential Aftab website, which is attached to Hasan Rowhani, Iran's former chief nuclear negotiator, who has close official links with the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The website noted with approval Mr Gates's affiliation with James Baker, the former US secretary of state and head of the recently convened Iraq Study Group, who has also voiced support for such contact.

However, talks are more likely to centre on Iraq than on Iran's nuclear programme, which the Bush administration and many others in the west fear is designed to build an atomic bomb. Iranian officials disclosed this week that they are considering a renewed US request for meetings on Iraq, where Iran has strong influence with leaders of the majority Shia population. While that now seems likelier, a breakthrough on the nuclear impasse is as distant as ever, analysts say.

"I don't believe Democrats view the prospect of Iran with nuclear technology as any less of a threat than Republicans do," said Saeed Leylaz, a Tehran-based political analyst. "It may be that the means used by Washington to try and convince Iran to suspend uranium enrichment will be more varied, but other than that I don't believe we are any freer from American pressure, and I don't foresee a strategic change in the relationship."

[Rasputin]

Iran ready to consider Russian uranium plan

TEHRAN (Reuters) -Iran is ready to consider a proposal to enrich uranium in Russia to lessen suspicions over its nuclear programme but would not stop similar work inside Iran, Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said on Saturday.

The United Nations Security Council is trying to reach agreement on sanctions against Iran after it failed to halt uranium enrichment as demanded in a July council resolution.

Western nations accuse Iran of trying secretly to build an atomic arsenal, but Iran says it has the right to enrich uranium and only wants to generate electricity.

Russia had proposed building a joint nuclear enrichment facility on its soil to enrich Iran's uranium to the level used in power stations, which is lower than is needed to make bombs.

"Iran seeks to preserve its rights to nuclear technology on its soil, but that does not contradict joint work with others in other areas," Mottaki told a news conference.

Russia, one of Iran's main trading partners, wants parts of a European draft sanctions text deleted, while the United States wants stronger language inserted. Negotiations are likely to continue for some time.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Friday that Iran's enemies could not do a "damn thing" to stop Iran's nuclear activities.

Iran ended snap inspections of its nuclear facilities in February after its case was referred to the U.N. Security Council and has threatened to curtail all inspections by the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, if sanctions are imposed.

[Rasputin]

عضو شوراى روابط خارجى آمريكا گفت: سياست آمريكا در قبال مسئله هسته*اى ايران يك مسئله انتخاباتى نخواهد بود و در نتيجه انتظار تغيير نبايد داشت.


,مايكل روبين, از سياستگذاران همكار جمهوريخواهان كه با خبرنگار سياست خارجى فارس درخصوص تحولات اخير در آمريكا و پيروزى دموكراتها در انتخابات اخير اين كشور گفتگو مي*كرد، اظهار داشت: سياست خارجى آمريكا بيشتر فلسفى است تا بر پايه تعريف حزبي؛ از اين رو تفاوت زيادى ميان سياست خارجى آمريكا در شش سال گذشته و در دو سال آينده وجود ندارد. انتخابات اختلافات ظاهرى را تشديد مي*كنند اما هر كسى كه در تلاش براى پيش*بينى سياست خارجى آمريكا به*وسيله احزاب سياسى در سنا است، زمان خود را هدر داده است.
وى درباره بركنارى دونالد رامسفلد وزير دفاع آمريكا و تاثير آن بر سياستهاى واشنگتن در قبال ايران گفت: تاثير واقعى نخواهد داشت. وقتى رابرت گيتس وزير دفاع آمريكا شد با شواهد و دلايلى درباره آنچه كه ايران و ساير كشورها در حال انجام آن هستند، مواجه خواهد شد و در نتيجه وى بر اساس اين شواهد از خود واكنش نشان خواهد داد و در نتيجه انتظار تغيير نبايد داشت.
,روبين, با توجه به انتخابات آينده رياست جمهورى در آمريكا درباره بهترين شيوه و راهى كه دولت آمريكا مي*تواند در قبال ايران اتخاذ كند، تصريح كرد: رو راست و رك بايد بگويم كه سياست آمريكا در قبال مسئله هسته*اى ايران يك مسئله انتخاباتى نخواهد بود؛ زيرا آمريكاييها بر پايه اقتصاد و ماليات رأى مي*دهند؛ همان*طور كه آنها اين كار را انجام دادند. من انتظار دارم كه دموكراتها و جمهوريخواهان همين سياست را در قبال ايران دنبال كنند.

[Rasputin]

U.S. presses case against Iran's nuke program

VIENNA, Austria (AP) - Frustrated by Security Council inaction over Iran, Washington is looking to next week's International Atomic Energy Agency meeting to press a new agenda - denying Tehran aid in building a plutonium-producing reactor that can be used to make nuclear warheads.

Washington's push to enlist the backing of the IAEA's 35 board countries on a technology ban for the reactor appears to reflect U.S. recognition that the council is hamstrung for now because of East-West differences on how to sanction Tehran for its nuclear defiance.

Seven diplomats, who demanded anonymity in exchange for discussing confidential information, told The Associated Press separately Tuesday that the board would likely opt to deny Iran's request for help on its Arak research reactor when it meets starting Nov. 20 to discuss the project and hundreds of others submitted by the agency's members.

Beside making a decision on Arak, the board meeting also will hear a report from IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei on his agency's attempts to investigate Tehran's nuclear activities.

That report was to be circulated internally to the agency's 35 board members later Tuesday. UN officials told The Associated Press it would focus on Iran's defiance of a Security Council demand that it stop uranium enrichment and generally reflect Iran's attempts to obstruct the agency's investigative efforts.

It would also reveal further details of laboratory testing of enriched uranium samples, one of the officials said without going into details and demanding anonymity in exchange for discussing the confidential report.

Much of the IAEA probe has focused on Iran's enrichment program - while Iran says it wants only to enrich to low levels to generate power, some of the samples found by IAEA inspectors show levels higher than that. That could indicate attempts to reach nuclear weapons-grade enrichment, something Tehran denies.

The campaign by the U.S. and its closest allies to deprive Tehran of IAEA help on the reactor at Arak has picked up speed as signs of deadlock increased at the Security Council on how to penalize Iran.

Russia - backed by China - opposes tough action advocated by the United States, Britain and France. Russian amendments to a western draft resolution floated last week seek to reduce sanctions to a minimum, deleting language that would have choked off Iran's access to foreign missile technology and most nuclear procurements.

The IAEA board in February referred Iran to the council, suggesting it had breached of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and might be trying to make nuclear weapons.

[Rasputin]

[Rasputin]

TEHRAN (AFP) - President Mahmoud Ahamdinejad has defiantly announced the ultimate aim of Iran's atomic drive was to install tens of thousands of uranium-enriching centrifuges to produce nuclear fuel.



Despite the threat of UN sanctions over Tehran's refusal to hold back its nuclear programme, Ahmadinejad said that the long-term target of Iran should be to install 60,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium.

Iran has said it is looking to install 3,000 centrifuges by March 2007, in itself a massive step from the two cascades of 164 centrifuges apiece it has currently at its Natanz plant to enrich uranium on a research scale.

"We want to produce nuclear fuel and eventually we should go for 60,000 centrifuges. We should continue along this path. We are at the beginning of the wave," Ahmadinejad told a news conference Tuesday.

His comments reaffirmed Iran's insistence that it wants to produce its own nuclear fuel on Iranian soil and will not renounce its right to uranium enrichment, a process the West fears could be diverted to make a nuclear bomb.

Experts say that 50,000 centrifuges would normally be sufficient to produce 20 kilos (44 pounds) of weapons grade uranium in under a month, but Iran vehemently denies it wants the bomb.

The remarks came as the United States and European powers seek to find agreement for a UN draft resolution that would impose sanctions on Iran over its failure to suspend uranium enrichment.

Enrichment is carried out in lines of centrifuges called cascades and is used to make the fuel for civilian nuclear reactors. But in highly enriched form, the uranium can be used to make a nuclear bomb.

Building tens of thousands of centrifuges would take Iran's enrichment programme from its current research level to one where it could produce nuclear fuel on an industrial scale.

World powers wanted Iran to suspend enrichment as a prelude to full-scale negotiations over its atomic programme, a demand that has been repeatedly rejected by Iran.

"The question of a suspension has now been passed," Ahmadinejad said.

But the president shrugged off the prospect of sanctions. "If they put in place sanctions a new financial order will be put in place."

Iran's arch-enemy the United States accuses it of seeking nuclear weapons, but Tehran insists its atomic programme is solely aimed at generating energy.

Amid mounting calls in the United States for contacts with Iran to stabilise neighbouring Iraq, Ahmadinejad said talks with Washington could only take place if the United States changed its "attitude" towards Iran.

"We would talk with the US government but on certain conditions, on the condition that it corrects its attitude," the president said, reaffirming his traditional stance on talks with the United States.

"And at that moment, we will talk with them as we talk with the others," he said.

The president confidently announced he would soon send a personal message to Americans and boasted to suspicious world powers that there now was no holding back the Iranian nuclear programme.

"I will soon send a message to the American people. I am in the process of preparing it," Ahmadinejad said.

"The message will elaborate upon the viewpoints of the Iranian nation, because many Americans asked me for it."

Ahmadinejad has already made message-writing part of his personal style, firing off missives to US President George W. Bush and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, that were greeted with frigidity by both parties.

The president gave no further details of the contents of the latest missive.

"The great powers have tried to prevent our people from achieving their rights in nuclear material," he said.

"This year I hope will be able to have the great celebration of the nuclearisation of Iran," he added. "We need time before we can arrive at a stage where we can make nuclear fuel for a power station. And yes, it will take time."

[Rasputin]

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - Deep divisions between Western nations and Russia have stalled talks on a draft U.N. resolution imposing sanctions on Iran for its nuclear program, U.S. Ambassador John Bolton said on Wednesday.



"We had an exchange of views across the range of issues," Bolton said after a sixth round of talks among six nations. "I don't know that we've accomplished anything I would describe as progress today, but we did talk about a number of issues."

Russian U.N. Ambassador Vitaly Churkin appeared to agree.

"Well there is movement, but is it a progress movement or some other movement, I cannot tell," he said, adding there had been "a rather intense exchange of opinion."

The United States and Europeans want the Security Council to impose sanctions on Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs after it refused to suspend its nuclear enrichment activities, as demanded in an August 31 council resolution.

The West believes Iran's uranium enrichment work is a cover for bomb-making while Tehran says it is for peaceful uses.

A draft resolution drawn up by Britain, France and Germany and backed by Washington demands nations prevent the sale or supply of equipment, technology or financing that would contribute to Iran's nuclear or ballistic missile programs.

Russia, backed by China, has submitted amendments cutting roughly half of the European draft and leaves nations to decide which items Iran can buy.

Senior foreign office officials from the United States, Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia had a telephone conference call on Iran on Wednesday but apparently failed to break the impasse, Churkin said.

"We certainly have to keep meeting here," German U.N. Ambassador Thomas Matussek said, adding: "We did not cover a lot today."

[Rasputin]

[Rasputin]

Iran's chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, has suggested that Tehran is prepared to resume negotiations over its nuclear programme.
He told Iranian state media it was important for Iran to have a nuclear research and development programme.

All other issues, including Iran's programme of uranium enrichment, could be resolved through talks, he said.

But he ruled out suspending Iran's nuclear activities before talks start, a key demand of the US.

"We are ready to negotiate, and are committed to continuing our previous talks. We believe that any solution must be achieved through negotiations," he told Iranian state media.

"Otherwise, we will go ahead with our plans."

The BBC's Frances Harrison, in Tehran, says the timing of Mr Larijani's words is interesting.

When hopes for negotiations have faded they seem to offer a slight softening of the Iranian position, especially when taken in the context of recent remarks by the Iranian president, our correspondent says.

'Great celebration'

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has taken a much tougher line, vowing that Iran will not suspend its nuclear programme even for one day.

I hope that by the end of the [Iranian] year we will be able to hold the great celebration of Iran's nuclear right

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad


Iran and US: Time to talk?

Speaking before Mr Larijani on Thursday, Mr Ahmadinejad said Iran was ready to take the "final step".

"I hope that by the end of the [Iranian] year [in March 2007] we will be able to hold the great celebration of Iran's nuclear right."

Asked what Mr Ahmadinejad meant, Mr Larijani said the president was referring to research and development in the field of enrichment.

"We are at a research level, which must be completed, it is important that we master this technology [enrichment] and we want to develop our activities in this area of research," the AFP news agency quoted him as saying.

On the issue of possible talks with the US on Iraq, Mr Larijani said there was no one voice emerging from the US and it would be better if the message from Washington was clearer, our correspondent says.

[Rasputin]

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on Thursday that the Iranian nation will continue seeking its right to access nuclear technology and is determined to achieve its relevant goals.

The president made the remarks while addressing residents of the city of Bijar at the city stadium.

Turning to the psychological war launched against Iran's nuclear issue and the political and propaganda pressures exerted on it by the enemies, he said, "Given your reliance on God Almighty, you should continue to advance forward, while the adversaries retreat." "The big powers do not wish to witness the progress of the Iranian nation in the nuclear sector. However, they should be aware that Iranians have selected the right way and that they are taking trouble in vain, as they cannot manage to inflict the slightest loss on our nation."
The city of Bijar is situated 140 kms to the northeast of the provincial capital of Sanandaj.

[Rasputin]

The reasons for the current impasse over Iran's uranium enrichment programme are simple. So is the solution for breaking the impasse.

The impasse exists because 1) power-plant-grade enrichment is the first step on the path to weapons-grade enrichment; 2) neither the IAEA nor anyone else has been able to produce any evidence that Iran is lying when it claims it has no weapons intentions (and it didn't help when the House Intelligence Committee recently issued a report purporting to prove weapons intentions that was immediately rejected as "erroneous, misleading and unsubstantiated," not by Iran but by the IAEA); and 3) until the burden of proof is met, Russian and China will block sanctions by the UN Security Council.

The simple solution: make an offer that Iran cannot refuse if it wants to maintain the credibility of its no-weapons-intentions story.

When Iran rejected Russia's proposal to provide an "assured" supply of power reactor fuel from Russia, this did not undermine Iran's credibility, even in Russia's eyes. Perhaps this was because Russia realizes that it is perceived as a not-very-reliable energy supplier to neighbours with whom political issues arise. Or perhaps it was because Iran's refusal to accept energy dependence doesn't seem unreasonable when most other large nations have made energy independence a central objective of energy and national-security policy.

To provide a real test of Iran's intentions, the offer must go further. It should be based on the President Ahmadinejad made in his UN speech a year ago: an industrial-scale, international enrichment consortium, based in Iran, to supply fuel to Iranian power-plants.

Of course it would be foolish to embrace Ahmadinejad's proposal in a manner that allows Iran to abscond with our nuclear know-how, throw us out of the country, and use what they have learned to build a bomb. Here is how this can be avoided:

First, the UN will ask the IAEA to design an industrial-scale enrichment facility that does not incorporate any know-how that Iran does not already possess at pilot scale. (No P2 centrifuges, for example.) If the IAEA says this cannot be done, stop here.

Next, we propose that this IAEA-designed facility will be built in Iran by an international consortium (Iran will be a member), subject to these conditions:

1. Iran will agree not to carry out any uranium enrichment research, development or production activities except at the consortium facility.

2. The IAEA will be allowed to carry out an intrusive inspections program throughout Iran.

3. The facility at Natanz must be built according to IAEA specifications, and above ground.

4. Iran must agree that, once the facility is operational, the IAEA may shut it down and lock it down without Iran's permission if the IAEA, in its sole discretion, has reason to believe that Iran is pursuing nuclear enrichment activities anywhere other than at the consortium facility.

5. Iran must agree that the armed air forces of NATO are entitled to destroy the facility if Iran takes any action to prevent the IAEA from shutting down and locking down the facility.

This proposal would set a clear test of Iranian intentions. If Iran refuses to accept now what Ahmadinejad has previously proposed, it would have to be on grounds that the conditions are too onerous. Yet they are merely those necessary to assure the rest of the world that enrichment in Iran does not progress beyond power-plant-grade. When the USA and Europe renew their demand for sanctions following an Iranian rejection, Russia and China will find it much more difficult to justify further waffling. Even if they do continue to waffle, we will have lost nothing, and will have gained much high ground both over Iran, and over the wafflers.

And if Iran accepts? Hawks will scoff at the idea that the IAEA can design and oversee an industrial-scale uranium enrichment facility that Iran can't and won't use to gain time and know-how in its quest for nuclear weapons. But why would we accept the judgment of hawks rather than that of the IAEA? Who turned out to be right when hawks and IAEA disagreed on the threat posed by Saddam Hussein's nuclear aspirations?

If Iran accepts, it will be because their intentions really are peaceful, or because they believe they can fool the IAEA, or because they believe the international community will lack the will to destroy the enrichment plant once Iran's weapons intentions are made manifest.

In the first case, everyone wins. In the second case, Iran will be punished for its mistake unless the hawks are right and the IAEA is wrong. In the third case, Iran will be punished for its mistake unless the NATO powers do indeed lack the resolve to eliminate an Iranian enrichment facility that has gone out of control, in which case shame on us.

There is an emerging consensus that the US should talk with Iran about its nuclear program, without making prior capitulation to our primary demand a pre-condition for talks. But we also need fresh ideas on what to talk about. Why not an offer that Iran can't refuse?

[donsaeid]