Nuclear Crisis

[Rasputin]

قالیباف پیام رهبر را برای او بُرد

ولایتی در جستجوی

روزنه ای اتمی، در پاریس

علي اكبر ولايتي که بعنوان نماینده رهبر راهی مسکو شده بود، از روسیه بازگشته و در پاریس سرگرم پیشبرد بخش دیگری از سیاست اتمی ایران، با هدایت و رهنمودهای رهبر است. سفر ویژه وزیرخارجه اسبق فرانسه "دوما" به تهران، شاید حاصل همین اقامت طولانی ولایتی و نتایج مذاکراتش باشد. مذاکراتی که گفته می شود، تازه ترین رهنمودهای آن را قالیباف شهردار تهران، در یک سفر غیر رسمی و علنی با خود به پاریس آورد! بخش دیگر مذاکرات را علی لاریجانی در وین و بروکسل پیش می برد که درارتباط است با سازمان انرژی اتمی. تقسیم کار تقریبا مشخص است: بخش فنی پرونده در ارتباط با سازمان انرژی هسته ای با لاریجانی است و بخش سیاسی و چانه زنی با ولایتی.

دراین میان، منوچهر متکی نیز در منطقه اینسو و آنسو می رود، از جمله سفر بی حاصلی که به ترکیه کرد و پس از ردوبدل شدن مقداری تعارفات میان وی و وزیر خارجه ترکیه به تهران بازگشت. او از ترکیه بازگشت و وزیر خارجه ترکیه آماده حضور در کنفرانس مهم جهان اسلام در اسلام آباد پاکستان شد. کنفرانسی که جمهوری اسلامی به آن دعوت نشده است!

علی اکبر ولایتی در آخرین مصاحبه ای که با روزنامه لوموند انجام داد، پیشنهاد تکراری تمام رهبران جمهوری اسلامی در روزهای اخیر را در کلمات زیر تکرار کرد: ما مي*خواهيم مذاكرات را ادامه دهيم. هيچ مساله*اي وجود ندارد كه نتوان از طريق مذاكره آن را حل كرد، اما نمي*توان از قبل چيزي را ديكته كرد. مساله هسته*يي در قالب دو خط قرمز قرار مي*گيرد نخست اين كه اين حق بنيادي ايران است كه از فن*آوري هسته*يي غيرنظامي در چارچوب معاهده منع گسترش سلاح*هاي هسته*يي (ان.پي.تي) بهره*مند باشد؛ دوم اين كه ايران به ارايه* تضمين*هايي متعهد باشد كه برنامه* هسته*يي اين كشور به سمت نظامي منحرف نخواهد شد. بين اين دو موضوع و بر سر ميز مذاكره همه چيز قابل تصور است. حتی تعليق موقت غني سازي اورانيوم را نيز شامل مي*شود.

ما پیشنهاد می کنیم فرانسه يك كنسرسيوم بين*المللي غني*سازي اورانيوم در خاك ايران تشكيل دهد. ما با فرانسه داراي سابقه همكاري و اعتمادي هستيم.

[Rasputin]

The five permanent members of the UN Security Council along with Germany will meet on Monday in London to discuss further sanctions against Iran. The BBC reports that the move comes as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that Iran had ignored a deadline to suspend its nuclear activities.

The report, written by [IAEA] head Mohamed ElBaradei, said Iran had not only failed to stop enrichment but was expanding the scale of its enrichment program. The six-page document said there had been little progress in clearing up outstanding questions about Iran's past nuclear activities. It said Iran had expanded from research-scale to industrial-scale production of enriched uranium.

The Associated Press reports that there are are likely to be divisions among the countries meeting in London. Britain and France are likely to join the United States in a call for sanctions that will go beyond what Russia and China are willing to accept. Among the sanctions that are being considered are a ban on travel, a further restriction on technologies and materials that countries can send to Iran, and more economic measures.

Russia's UN Ambassador Vitaly Churkin said he had "no substantive comment" on the International Atomic Energy Agency's report Thursday which concluded that "Iran has not suspended its enrichment related activities" as the Security Council demanded in a resolution adopted on Dec. 23. But he reiterated Moscow's desire for a diplomatic negotiated solution.

"We should not lose sight of the goal – and the goal is not to have a resolution or to impose sanctions," Churkin said. "The goal is to accomplish a political outcome."

The Washington Post reports that US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice warned Iran on Thursday that it faced much tougher sanctions if it continued with its plans to develop a uranium-enrichment program. She also said, however, that the US and other members of the UN Security Council were still prepared to sit down and talk with Iran if it suspended its program.

"We have the common goal to encourage Iran back to the bargaining table," Rice said after a meeting in Berlin with her counterparts from Russia, Germany and the European Union. "The hope is that the sanctions show the Iranians the isolation that they are enduring, that isolation is likely to increase over time and that it is time to take a different course."

Meanwhile, the Guardian reports that much of the intelligence provided by US spy agencies to the IAEA about Iran's nuclear program has turned out to be unfounded, according to diplomatic sources in Vienna. Most of the supposed secret weapon sites, which were given to the agency by the CIA and other US intelligence agencies, have turned out to be dead ends when investigatedby IAEA inspectors.

"Most of it has turned out to be incorrect," said a diplomat at the IAEA with detailed knowledge of the agency's investigations. "They gave us a paper with a list of sites. [The inspectors] did some follow-up, they went to some military sites, but there was no sign of [banned nuclear] activities."

"Now [the inspectors] don't go in blindly. Only if it passes a credibility test."

Tehran has insisted for some time that the documents that purported to show elements of a nuclear weapons program, which were found on a stolen laptop by Iranian informants, were forgeries. The Guardian reports that there are concerns within the IAEA about these documents, because of how easily they were reportedly stolen and the fact that they are all in English rather than in Farsi.

Finally, the Los Angeles Times reports that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad refused to consider any compromise on his country's position, saying Thursday that Iran will not withdraw from its nuclear stance "even one step." During an IAEA visit to the Natanz nuclear facility in February, Iranian officials said they are in the process of installing 3000 centrifuges. This has some officials concerned that Iran may be near the "breakout point"of being able to produce a nuclear weapon if they wanted to. Iran has continued to insist that it only plans to use its nuclear plants for peaceful generation of power.

[Rasputin]

TEHRAN (AFP) -Iran's president vowed Friday to press on with his country's nuclear programme as Vice President Dick Cheney said the United States did not rule out military force in its determination to stop him.


A day after the UN nuclear watchdog found Iran in breach of a Security Council ultimatum to suspend uranium enrichment, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was in a defiant mood at a public rally.

"The Iranian people are vigilant and will defend all their rights to the end," he said in a speech in the provincial city of Gilan carried by the ISNA news agency.

"The great Iranian people are resisting the oppressors and will not concede one iota," he said. "If we take a step back, they'll come rushing forwards, but if we stand firm, it is they who will be forced to retreat."

A report issued on Thursday by the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Mohamed ElBaradei, concluded that Iran had not suspended its nuclear fuel enrichment as the Security Council had demanded.

The United States, France and Britain promptly called for increased sanctions by the UN Security Council. Germany said further consultations were necessary, while Russia and China withheld comment.

Iran's influential former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani urged the Security Council not to go down the road of new sanctions but instead to return to talks.

"Following Mr ElBaradei's report, they (Western governments) are readying tough new action but I say to them that they will achieve nothing this way," Rafsanjani said in a sermon at the mainly weekly Muslim prayers in Tehran.

"I advise them to return to the negotiating table -- we are ready to give them the necessary guarantees," said Rafsanjani.

"But if you carry on down this road, you're going to create lots of problems for the world, yourselves and the region," he said addressing the Western powers.

But on Friday Cheney said the United States would "do everything" it can to deprive Iran of nuclear weapons, refusing to rule out force.

"We haven't taken any options off the table," Cheney he said in an interview with the US ABC News network from Australia, where he is traveling.

"A nuclear-armed Iran is not a very pleasant prospect for anybody to think about," he said. "We need to continue to do everything we can to make sure they don't achieve that objective."

"We hope we can solve the problem diplomatically," Cheney said.

President George W. Bush "has indicated he wants to do everything he can to resolve it diplomatically. That's why we're working with the ( European Union) and going through the United Nations with sanctions.

"But the president has also made it clear that we haven't taken any options off the table," he said.

Cheney's questioner referred to British Prime Minister Tony Blair, saying he "seemed to be suggesting that military action really isn't an option by saying the only sensible solution here is diplomacy. Is there realistically a military solution to this?"

The vice president replied: "I'm not going to go beyond where I am ... As we've said, we're doing everything we can to resolve it diplomatically, but we haven't taken any options off the table.

Two US aircraft carrier groups are currently in the Gulf region, the highest concentration of US naval firepower there since the invasion of Iraq in 2003.

Senior representatives from all six of the major powers pressing Iran will meet in London early next week to try to thrash out a consensus on the next step forward.

In Vienna, ElBaradei said that despite Tehran's failure to meet the UN deadline, said he believed there was still a "window of opportunity for both Iran and the international community to turn to the negotiating table."

That was echoed by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, who said in Brussels that "the door of negotiation remains opened."

On December 23, the UN Security Council passed a resolution imposing limited sanctions on Iran and demanding it freeze enrichment, which makes fuel for civilian reactors but can also produce the core of an atomic bomb.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon was to hold talks with ElBaradei in Vienna later on Friday.

France's Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said a new resolution was needed to "continue the sanctions," and British Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett said London favoured additional measures that would "lead to the further isolation of Iran internationally."

But stronger sanctions could be opposed by Russia and China, permanent members of the Security Council with the power to veto any resolution.

At the United Nations, Slovakian Ambassador Peter Burian, Security Council president for February, said he would sound out the body's 15 members next week on steps towards possible action against Tehran.

Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso said on Friday that his country would not "tolerate" a nuclear-armed Iran, despite its dependence on the Islamic republic for oil.

The IAEA report on Thursday said Iran had failed to cooperate on crucial issues that raise the possibility of a military dimension to its nuclear programme.

[Rasputin]

كاندوليزا رايس وزير خارجه آمريكا در مصاحبه با شبكه خبرى فاكس نيوز گفته است، نيازى نيست ايران دنده عقب برود، بلكه كافى است دكمه توقف غني*سازى را فشار دهد.
رايس عصر يكشنبه به وقت نيويورك گفت :ايرانيان بايد غني*سازى و فرآورى را متوقف كنند و بعد براى مذاكره در رابطه با آنچه كه ايران در نظر دارد صحبت كنيم.

وى افزود: جامعه بين*الملل سرسخت است. ما قطعنامه فصل هفتم داريم كه نشان داده ايران خودش را منزوى كرده است، زمان آن رسيده كه ايران طريق ديگرى را انتخاب كند و ما اميد داريم كه اين كار را بكنند.

از رايس سوال شد: باتوجه به اين كه اعضاى دائم شوراى امنيت و آلمان روز دوشنبه در لندن نشست دارند و اين كه سال گذشته چهار ماه طول كشيد تا چين و روسيه با تحريم*هاى محدود عليه تهران موافقت كنند آيا صادقانه فكر مى كنيد آنها حاضر به تاييد تحريمهاى سخت عليه ايران هستند؟
وزير خارجه آمريكا جواب داد: مي*خواهيم مشورت كنيم و در برلين هم من با همتايان روس و آلمانى خود مشورت كردم. ما همه موافقت كرديم كه نياز به ادامه اين روند در شوراى امنيت است.

رايس گفت:ما راه مذاكره را باز مي*گذاريم چرا كه بهترين راه اين است كه ايران به ميز مذاكره بيايد ولى فكر مي*كنم اگر به بحثهايى كه در ايران مى گذرد نگاه كنيم مي*بينيم كه افرادى در آن كشور هستند كه سياستهايى كه تهران را حقيقتا به انزوا مي*كشاند، زير سووال برده*اند.

وى اظهارداشت:مردم به سرمايه*گذارى در ايران با اين نظر نگاه مي*كنند كه شهرت و سرمايه آنها در خطر است چرا كه ايران تحت فصل هفتم جامعه بين الملل است و كشورهاى معدودى در اين گروه قرار دارند.

وزير خارجه آمريكا گفت:كسانى كه نمي*خواهند اين انزوا ادامه پيدا كند ، نفس عميق بكشند و با تعليق غني*سازى به جامعه بين*الملل اجازه مذاكره بدهند.

از وى سوال شد: از ايران چه مي*خواهيد؟ تغيير رژيم يا تغيير رويه؟ آيا اگر آنها مانند كره شمالى بخواهند رفتار خود را تغيير دهند آيا حاضر به قبول وجود رژيم فعلى در ايران هستيد؟
رايس در جواب اين سوال بار ديگر به مفاد بسته پيشنهادى اشاره كرد و گفت: خوب بود كه مردم ايران كه با غرور و فرهنگ پرافتخار هستند نقش بيشترى در دولت خود داشتند ولى اكنون به بحث مهمتر مي*پردازيم.

وى افزود: ما بايد ايران را براساس استاندارد جامعه بين*الملل كه توقف غني*سازى و تواناييهاى فرآورى را خواسته دخالت دهيم. بعد كه ايران دوباره وارد جامعه بين*الملل شد مطمئن هستم كه مي*توانيم بقيه مسائل را بحث كنيم.

مجرى فاكس نيوز پرسيد: بنابراين مثل كره شمالى مي*توانيم با رژيم فعلى ايران زندگى كنيم، اگر آنها كارهايشان را درست كنند؟
وزير خارجه آمريكا گفت: هيچ شكى ندارم كه مردم ايران هم مي*خواهند مثل مردم ديگر باشند و بتوانند آزادى و نقش خود را در سياست كشورشان داشته باشند. همه اينها مهم هستند.

"رئيس جمهور(بوش) براى همه جهان روشن كرده كه ما به ادامه ترويج دمكراسى در جهان ادامه مي*دهيم ولى در ايران وضعيتى كه دارند نفى جامعه بين*الملل است كه نياز به تغيير رويه آنان وجود دارد و بعد مي*توانيم درباره همه چيز صحبت كنيم".

رايس گفت: ما با اين رژيم درباره همه چيز صحبت مي*كنيم. من گفته*ام كه آماده ملاقات با همتاى خود يا نماينده ايران در هر زمان كه باشد هستم به شرط اين كه آنان غني*سازى و ساير فعاليتهاى فرآورى را قطع كنند.

[Rasputin]

Top diplomats from six key nations have ended discussions in London on further moves to make Iran comply with demands to end its nuclear programme.
The talks came after the UN nuclear watchdog confirmed Iran had ignored a deadline to suspend nuclear activities.

The UK Foreign Office called the talks "productive" and said work had begun on a new UN Security Council resolution.

On Sunday Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said his country would not go back on its nuclear programme.

And on Monday an Iranian spokesman said demands for it to cease nuclear enrichment as a precondition for talks were "illegal and illogical" and "in contradiction with the Iranian nation's dignity".

Deadline

Iran denies Western claims it is secretly trying to build nuclear arms, saying its nuclear programme is for peaceful, energy-producing purposes.

POSSIBLE NEXT STEPS
New UN resolution on tougher economic sanctions, tabled by US or European allies
US pressure on Europeans to step up bilateral sanctions
New initiative to get Iran back to talks


Q&A: Iran's nuclear plans

Monday's meeting of diplomats from the five permanent UN Security Council members - the US, Russia, China, France, and Britain - plus Germany, was called to discuss how to make Iran meet UN demands to halt uranium enrichment.

"We had a productive first discussion of the next steps... We began work on a new Security Council resolution," a Foreign Office statement said, adding that the talks would continue later in the week.

The Security Council imposed sanctions on Iran in December, setting a 60-day deadline for it to stop enriching uranium.

But a report last week by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that Iran was instead expanding the programme.

Enriched uranium is used as fuel for nuclear reactors, but highly enriched uranium can be used to make nuclear bombs.

Travel ban

New tougher sanctions could include travel bans on Iranian officials individuals associated with nuclear and missile programmes.

The BBC's diplomatic correspondent Bridget Kendall says the London meeting was a chance to gauge whether Russia and China could be persuaded to maintain pressure on Iran.

The US was also eager to discuss ways in which bilateral pressure can be applied on Tehran, with issues such as European export credits for business with Iran and arms sales from Russia on the agenda.

US officials point to the recent deal with North Korea on its nuclear programme as proof that diplomatic pressure can work, our correspondent says.

They also note that that deal should be a sign to the Iranians that the US is prepared to negotiate, she adds.

Meanwhile there has been criticism in Iran of Mr Ahmadinejad's comment that nuclear development was "a train on a one-way track with no room for stopping" .

Reformist newspapers said the metaphor was inappropriate because it suggested the programme was out of control.

Correspondents say the coverage is the latest sign of growing criticism of President Ahmadinejad and what some call his confrontational manner with the West.

[Nutcase]

Iran defiant on nuclear work as more sanctions loom

TEHRAN (AFP) - Iran on Tuesday vowed never to yield to the key Western demand on its nuclear programme after world powers agreed to work on a new resolution that could lead to more UN sanctions against Tehran.

Amid speculation Washington may be planning military action to bring Tehran to heel, influential cleric Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani warned Iran to be careful not to provoke the "wounded tiger" of the United States.


Diplomats from six key world powers pledged in London on Monday to work on a new UN Security Council resolution over Iran's refusal to suspend uranium enrichment work, which the West fears could be used to make nuclear weapons.


But Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki retorted: "One thing that is not feasible is the Iranian nation backing down on having nuclear technology for peaceful purposes."


He warned that Iran would not repeat the temporary suspension of enrichment agreed in 2004 as part of a deal with the European Union, saying Iran had received nothing in return.


Following the London meeting, representatives of the five permanent members of the Security Council and Germany agreed to convene again on Thursday to discuss how to agree on a consensus for a new resolution.


Ahead of the next meeting, British Prime Minister Tony Blair said any sign of weakness with Iran would be "fatal", insisting that only tough action from the international community would achieve results.


"The tougher we are in insisting that Iran comply and in being prepared to take tough measures on sanctions and diplomatic action if they don't, then the more likely we are to get the results we want," Blair told reporters.


"Any sign of weakness is absolutely fatal," he said.


The Security Council agreed in December to impose its first sanctions against Iran, targeting the nuclear industry and its ballistics programme. Further sanctions could have wider implications for the Iranian economy.


However China, which along with Russia has been wary of further punitive action against Tehran, refused to say if it would back new sanctions.


"Our position has been consistent in that we advocate a solution to the Iranian nuclear issue through negotiation and peaceful means," foreign ministry spokesman Qin Gang told reporters. "Sanctions are not our ultimate purpose."


French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said it was now "highly likely" the permanent members of the Security Council could soon agree a new resolution ordering sanctions against Iran.


While Washington insists it wants to end the standoff diplomatically, the United States has never ruled out using military action against Iran's nuclear programme.


Iran's ambassador to Moscow warned that the Islamic republic would strike the United States "anywhere" if attacked, adding, however, Tehran was ready to consider direct talks with Washington, Russia's Interfax news agency reported.


"If the Americans do something foolish and attack Iran ... we will be able to give a worthy, adequate response ... We also do not limit the territory for such a response -- it could be anywhere," Gholamreza Ansari said.


Tehran denies US and Israeli charges of seeking nuclear weapons, insisting its atomic programme is peaceful in nature.


Former president Rafsanjani warned Iran to be wary of provoking the United States, comparing the Islamic republic's arch-foe to a "wounded tiger".

"The Americans brought their troops with high spending to Iraq and Afghanistan. The only thing they did was to remove Iran's enemies, Saddam Hussein and the Taliban," said Rafsanjani, president from 1989 to 1997.

"They are angry. So we must be more alert. They are like a wounded tiger and we must not ignore this," he said.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Sunday compared the Iranian nuclear programme to a train without brakes or reverse gear, a comment that drew a reaction of mounting exasperation from US officials.

The increasingly sharp rhetoric between the West and Iran helped drive oil prices higher. In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude for April delivery climbed nine cents Tuesday to 61.42 dollars per barrel in electronic trading.

[Rasputin]

مصاحبه دبیرکل جدید سازمان ملل با مجله "اشپیگل" آلمان- ترجمه آزاده تهرانی

ایران، سرانجام باید تمام

درهای اتمی خود را بگشاید

درکره شمالی روندی آغاز شده که جامعه جهانی از آن حمایت می کند و امریکا نیز مذاکرات مستقیم با آن را قبول کرده، اما در مورد ایران وضع فرق می کند. هر کشوری برای استفاده صلح آمیز از انرژی اتمی، بدون هیچ پیش شرطی آزاد است. یگانه پیش شرط استفاده صلح آمیز از آن، وفاداری به تعهدات بین المللی و کنترل تمام جزئیات تکنیکی از طرف آژانس بین المللی انرژی اتمی است. برای ما قابل درک نیست که وقتی شورای امنیت توقف غنی سازی را از ایران می خواهد، چرا احمدی نژاد پیش شرط توقف غنی سازی جهانی را می دهد.



دبیرکل جدید سازمان ملل "بان کی مون" که درکنفرانس امنیت جهانی در شهر مونیخ آلمان شرکت کرده بود، در مصاحبه مشروحی با مجله اشپیگل پیرامون بسیاری از مسائل جهانی نظرات خود را با این نشریه در میان گذاشت. آن بخش از مصاحبه دبیرکل سازمان ملل که مستقیما مربوط به مسائل ایران است را ترجمه کرده ایم که می خوانید:



- مناقشه در مورد مسئله اتمی ایران به مرحله بسیار حادی رسیده است. سازمان ملل برای جلوگیری از حمله نظامی چه اقداماتی باید انجام دهد؟

دبیرکل: شورای امنیت سازمان ملل در ماه دسامبر 2006 پیش شرط های مهلت دار و تحریم هائی را اعمال کرد. این به غایت سودمند است که رهبران ایران مفاد قطعنامه را کاملا اجرا کنند. هنوز برای تهران فرصت باقی است که از طریق سیاسی جلوی یک مناقشه نظامی را بگیرد. این فرصت را نباید از دست داد. اتحادیه اروپا به رهبری آلمان نیز نقش مهمی در این زمینه بر عهده دارد. حتی اگر گفتگو با ایران در این مرحله به بن بست برسد نیز بازهم تلاش خواهیم کرد رهبری تهران بتواند از آن استفاده کند.

- احمدی نژاد هفته پیش به طرز غیر مترقبه ای پیشنهاد کرد که حاضر است در مورد قطع غنی سازی اورانیوم گفتگو کند. آیا به آن باور می کنید؟

دبیرکل: او پیش نهاد خودش را به پیش شرطی از جمله قطع غنی سازی اورانیوم از طرف کشورهای غربی منوط کرده است. من نمیدانم هدف او از این حرف چیست. تهران بجای پیشنهاد جدید، پیش شرط های جدید مطرح می کند.

- شما 8 هفته است که در سمت خود مشغول کار شده اید. دراین مدت در مورد مسئله اتمی کره شمالی نظر خود را صریحا اعلام کرده اید، اما در مورد ایران محتاطانه عمل می کنید. تفاوت این دو کشور چیست؟

دبیرکل: کره شمالی بطور جدی مذاکره را پذیرفته و قرارهای مشترکی را با چین، ژاپن، روسیه و کره جنوی و امریکا گذاشته که خود پیشرفتی محسوب می شود. براساس قرارها، کره موظف است که در مدت زمانی معین همه برنامه های اتمی خود را متوقف کند. درعوض کره کمک های اقتصادی از جمله انرژی و نفت دریافت خواهد کرد و تضمین هایی برای امنیت و عادی شدن روابط دیپلماتیک از طرف امریکا و ژاپن به او داده شده است. در مورد ایران مسئله طور دیگری است و عواقب برنامه های آنها برای صلح، امنیت و ثبات در کل منطقه بسیار خطرناک است. در مورد کره شمالی امریکا آمادگی خود را برای مذاکره اعلام کرد. اما در مورد ایران مسئله طور دیگری است.

- در کنفرانس امنیت مونیخ علی لاریجانی محدودیت هائی را برای غنی سازی اورانیوم در چارچوب عدم استفاده آن برای سلاح اتمی مطرح کرد. این مسئله نشانه سازش بود؟

دبیرکل: هر کشوری برای استفاده صلح آمیز از انرژی اتمی، بدون هیچ پیش شرطی آزاد است. یگانه پیش شرط استفاده صلح آمیز از آن وفاداری به تعهدات بین المللی و کنترل تمام جزئیات تکنیکی از طرف آژانس بین المللی انرژی اتمی است. به همین جهت ایران باید بازرسان آژانس را بپذیرد و درهای همه تاسیسات و برنامه های اتمی خود را به روی آنها باز کند. دراینصورت است که آنها می توانند جامعه جهانی را نسبت به صلح آمیز بودن برنامه های اتمی خود متقاعد کنند.

- شما آشکارا کنار آمدن با کره را بسیار خوشبینانه تر از ایران ارزیابی می کنید.

دبیرکل: من مطمئن نیستم که در مورد کره بسیار خوشبین تر هستم. اما در کره جریان به گونه مطمئن تری پیش می رود و حالا باید تعهدات از هر دو طرف از قوه به فعل درآیند. جامعه بین الملل باید از این پروسه پشتیبانی کند.

[Rasputin]

U.S. foreign policy has its own fads and fashions. They change more slowly than Oscar-night sensations, but get reputations that are harder to shake. At the moment, economic sanctions have a bad rap. And that's a shame, because financial sanctions are getting better and we need them more than ever, this time to avoid war with Iran.

Sanctions got a failing grade in the 1990s. Remember those malnourished Iraqi children, and the protests against the United States for allegedly doing as much damage as Saddam Hussein? And when we tried "smart sanctions" to punish Hussein but not the Iraqi people, we ended up with the notoriously corrupt U.N. Oil for Food program.

Then Bush administration officials spent most of this decade declaring sanctions ineffective. They said (wrongly) that international sanctions were not thwarting Hussein's quest for weapons of mass destruction. And they argued (rightly) that sanctions wouldn't stop North Korea from getting the bomb unless China got religion and converted to chief enforcer.

So it's surprising to hear U.S. officials crediting the seizure of North Korean bank accounts in Macao with bringing Kim Jong Il back to the bargaining table after 18 months of intransigence. Now, Chinese pressure may have had more to do with Kim's about-face than we know. (The Chinese aren't saying.) And those Banco Delta Asia accounts only held about $24 million. But that appears to have been Kim's personal slush fund—money he used to buy goodies for and the loyalty of the North Korean elite, and there's no question Pyongyang was enraged. As part of the tiptoe-toward-disarmament deal signed earlier this month, the U.S. has pledged to begin unfreezing the accounts.

There are a number of lessons from Banco Delta Asia that could be applied to Iran. First, the freeze sent shock waves through the Asian banking establishment. Nobody wants to risk doing business with a bank that might find itself branded a money launderer or a financier of terrorism. Even if the government's accusation turns out to be wrong, the bank's assets get frozen—and possibly your assets with it.

The beauty of the Bush administration's strategy is that even though all the necessary foreign governments didn't agree to impose the stiff economic sanctions the U.S. wanted against North Korea, private firms shut Pyongyang out of the international financial system to protect their own bottom line. (The danger is that if the administration overreaches in future and is seen as abusing for political purposes its considerable powers over the international financial system, the backlash could be horrific.)

But the central lesson of the Banco Delta Asia case is that U.S. sanctions really are, finally, getting smarter. They can be highly effective when, instead of trying to clobber an entire "rogue" government, they target the conduct only of people and organizations that are engaging in the behavior we find reprehensible—in Iran's case, those trying to build a nuclear bomb.

Moreover, Washington is more likely to get cooperation from foreign governments and from private companies if it drops the bellicose rhetoric about the "axis of evil" and focuses its efforts on naming and shaming those directly responsible for the scary behavior.

Consider the latest Treasury Department sanctions against three Iranian companies controlled by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, which in turn reports to the Iranian president. Or the Treasury action against Iran's Bank Sepah, which allegedly has been financing the Iranian missile program.

The U.S. argues that that under the latest U.N. Security Council resolution against Iran all governments are obliged to take steps to counteract Iran's proliferation activities—and that includes shunning the state-owned Bank Sepah. But a Treasury official reports that private companies are already severing their ties with Sepah.

Intelligence is clearly getting better. For years, the U.S. has tried to get at the assets of dictators and other bad guys around the world, or keep them from traveling. But now it's also able, officials believe, to keep bad guys from sending their children to school in Switzerland or their wives to shop in London.

Will such steps be enough to keep Iran from developing a nuclear bomb? No. But a State Department official who has long toiled on nonproliferation issues believes the combination of sanctions against Iran, however imperfect, has delayed Tehran's march to nuclear weapons by two to five years. And the more political support even limited sanctions get around the world, the more likely they are, over time, to alter the political calculus in Tehran about whether the benefits of a nuclear weapons program outweigh the pain.

Iran is a big, powerful country with oil, and the U.S. has little leverage against it. It's true that sanctions are slow, and they won't work without the cooperation of the Europeans, Russians, Chinese and Japanese, who range from reluctant to ideologically opposed to punitive measures. But these countries may be persuaded to support—or at least not veto—very smart sanctions, if persuaded that the alternatives are a nuclear-armed Iran, or a U.S. or Israeli war with Iran, or both. And those horrible choices look increasingly likely.

It's time for a new campaign for very limited, very targeted sanctions against the Iranian nuclear actors, to be enforced by the entire international community and given a long period of time to work. If the Bush administration is too diplomatically damaged to make that case to the world, the Europeans should.

[Rasputin]

One day the Bush Administration is bashing Iran, pushing U.N. Security Council sanctions, cutting off its credit, arresting its nationals and sending more warships into the Persian Gulf. Then, practically the next day it seems, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is announcing plans for U.S. and Iranian diplomats to meet in Baghdad to discuss cooperating to quell the carnage in Iraq.

Mixed messages? For sure. But that's not by accident. It's just a new take on the classic carrot-and-stick diplomatic strategy, in which contradictions are at the core of the U.S. Iran strategy.

"It is a message of pressure and possibility," says a senior U.S. official. "We're trying to keep up the pressure but also hold open the possibility of constructive dialogue, if they meet the conditions."

Rice made front page news with her disclosure Tuesday that the U.S. would send a representative — most probably Zalmay Khalilzad, the outgoing U.S. Ambassador to Iran, or his successor, Ryan Crocker — to meet face to face with Middle East diplomats,including envoys from Iran and Syria. The occasion is a "neighbors' meeting" that the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is convening March 10 in hopes of getting help stabilizing Iraq.

It's not actually a new idea. Back in the fall of 2005, the White House and Rice authorized Khalilzad to meet with Iranian officials about Iraqi violence. The meetings didn't happen and by the next spring the idea faded as the war of words between Washington and Tehran heated up.

It will be bigger news if the second, higher-level security conference comes off in April, as planned, which Rice herself intends to attend. She will make more headlines by sitting at the same table with the Iranian and Syrian foreign ministers, despite her condemnation of those nations for contributing to instability and bloodshed in Iraq, Lebanon and the Palestinian territories — and, in Iran's case, for seeking the capability to make nuclear weapons.

Still the group will be large — ministers from the Arab world, the G-8 industrialized nations and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council have been invited, along with representatives from the United Nations and other international organizations — and officials say Rice doesn't anticipate breaking away into a one-on-one session with the Iranian delegate. Nor, they say, does she intend to allow the discussion to veer off into the issue of Iran's nuclear activities now before the U.N. Security Council. (On Thursday, in a conference call with his counterparts from the other Perm-Five nations, Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns, Rice's point man for Iran's nukes, hopes to reach agreement on terms for the next round of sanctions.)

During the April meeting in Baghdad, says a U.S. official, Rice "is not going to hide in the corner. If she has a chance to bring up EFPs [explosively formed penetrators], she will," referring to U.S. assertions that Iran has been sending these vicious high-tech bombs to Shi'ite militias in Iraq.

One reason Rice is touting U.S. participation in the Baghdad meetings is to answer critics — including the Iraq Study Group, led by former Secretary of State James Baker, as well as Arab and European leaders — who have urged the Administration to engage broadly with Tehran and also Damascus. But the Administration is keeping the bar high by insisting that the Baghdad talks will deal only with Iraq's security and that there will be no formal negotiations with Iran on the nuclear issue until it freezes its uranium enrichment work as ordered by the Security Council. Another reason behind Rice's move is to put Tehran on the spot: if U.S. envoys show up in Baghdad and Iranian diplomats don't, the U.S. believes it would be able to harden its case in the U.N. that the regime can't be trusted.

But some analysts find these disclaimers disingenuous and suspect that the Administration is edging toward a real reversal because it realizes its policy of isolating the Iranian regime has only made matters worse. "My reading is, Rice is ready to cave, meaning she's ready to negotiate without preconditions, and she's looking for a venue to do it," says Ray Takeyh, author of Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic. If Rice doesn't want to lay the groundwork for talking to the Iranians and Syrians, says Takeyh, why bother to attend the Baghdad conference? "The Americans don't need a conference to talk to the others," he says.

Certainly the mixed-signals strategy has generated a good deal of confusion. On Wednesday, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack contended that U.S. Iran policy was not, as various news reports portrayed it, "going wobbly, shift, turnabout, change." "There's no change in our policy," he insisted. "There's no change in our policy."

But like many others, Takeyh is more confused than convinced. "For the first time in this melodrama," he says, "the Iranians are easier to understand than the Americans. I don't get it."

[Rasputin]

آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى روز دوشنبه قرار است نشستى را درباره مسائل هسته*اى ايران و كره شمالى آغاز كند.
به گزارش خبرگزارى فرانسه، انتظار مي*رود اين تحولات نشست 35 عضو شوراى حكام آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى را كه در آن محمد البرادعي، مدير كل آژانس گزارش خود را درباره رد درخواست*هاى شوراى امنيت از سوى ايران و كاهش حدودا 40 درصدى كمك فنى آژانس به اين كشور ارائه مي*دهد، تحت*الشعاع قرار دهد.
يك ديپلمات غربى در وين گفت نشست شوراى حكام بايد خالى از جنجال*ها باشد ,تا فضا براى ديپلماسى در همه جا فراهم باشد.,
يك ديپلمات ديگر درباره ايران گفت: ,احتمال دارد نورى در انتهاى تونل وجود داشته باشد. بنابراين بهتر است اكنون در وين آتش*بازى نكنيم.,
از ميان 55 پروژه منطقه*اى و ملى كه آژانس با ايران دارد، 22 يا 40 درصد آنها كاملا يا تقريبا به حال تعليق درآمده است.
اگرچه اين اقدامات انجام شده اما شوراى حكام آژانس ممكن است آنها را رد كند.
كشورهاى عضو جنبش عدم تعهد اعلام كرده*اند از توصيه*هاى البرادعى تبعيت مي*كنند.
البرادعى قرار است پس از نشست شوراى حكام به منظور بحث درباره برنامه تسليحات هسته*اى كره شمالى به اين كشور سفر كند.
مقامات آژانس از اعلام تاريخ دقيق اين سفر خوددارى كرده*اند.
البرادعى پس از بازگشتش از كره شمالى گزارش اين سفر را به شوراى حكام آژانس اتمى ارائه خواهد داد و انتظار مي*رود نشست فوق*العاده شوراى حكام اواخر ماه جارى در وين برگزار شود.

[Rasputin]

مدير كل آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى گفت به نظر مي*رسد ايران كار بر روى برنامه غني*سازى اورانيوم خود را با توجه به بحث* هاى موجود در شوراى امنيت دستكم به صورت موقت به حال تعليق درآورده است.

به گزارش فارس به نقل از خبرگزارى آسوشيتدپرس، محمد البرادعى در حاشيه نشست شوراى حكام آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى گفت: "من معتقد نيستم تعداد سانتريفوژها افزايش يافته باشد و معتقد نيستم مواد هسته*اى به سانتريفوژها در نطنز تزريق شده باشد."
وى به خبرنگاران گفت عليرغم اخبار مثبتى كه وجود دارد، فقدان همكارى كامل ايران منجر به ناتوانى آژانس در تاييد كامل صلح*آميز بودن برنامه هسته*اى اين كشور شده است.
البرادعى تصريح كرد اگر ايران تصميمى درباره همكارى با آژانس نگيرد، وى "هيچ گزينه*اى جز عدم قضاوت درباره برنامه هسته*اى ايران" نخواهد داشت.
به گزارش اسوشيتد پرس، يك مقام ارشد ايرانى گفت هرگونه توقف كوتاه* مدت مي*تواند اين گونه تعبير شود كه ايران درخواست*هاى شوراى امنيت را مبنى بر تعليق غني*سازى اورانيوم، پذيرفته است.

[Rasputin]

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran's persistent failure to clear up concerns about its nuclear activities after concealing them for almost 20 years sets it apart from all other nations, the U.N. atomic watchdog chief said on Monday.

Six world powers are now negotiating on widening sanctions against Iran for pressing ahead with its program to enrich uranium, a possible route to building atomic bombs, and ignoring a February 21 U.N. Security Council deadline for it to stop.

"Iran's verification case is sui generis (one of a kind)," Mohamed ElBaradei, director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said in opening remarks to a gathering of the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors.

"Unlike other verification cases, the IAEA's confidence about the nature of Iran's program has been shaken because of two decades of undeclared activities (until 2003)," he said.

"This confidence will only be restored when Iran takes the long overdue decision to explain and answer all the agency's questions and concerns about its past nuclear activities in an open and transparent manner."

Iran rejects Western suspicions that it is trying to master nuclear bomb technology under the cover of a civilian atomic energy program, saying it only wants to generate electricity.

Tehran has also complained of unfair treatment, noting the IAEA has found no hard evidence of covert bombmaking efforts. It has characterized sanctions as a U.S.-led campaign to stunt its economic development and topple its Islamist government.

"We have not seen concrete proof of diversion of nuclear material, nor the industrial capacity to produce weapons-usable nuclear material, which is an important consideration in assessing the risk," said ElBaradei.

"But quite a few uncertainties remain about experiments, procurements and other activities ..."

Iranian envoy Ali Asghar Soltanieh said Iran was willing to resolve outstanding issues "if our nuclear dossier is returned (by the Security Council) to the IAEA where it belongs."

CUTS IN NUCLEAR AID FOR IRAN

At the meeting likely to run some four days, governors were expected to approve cuts to 22 of 55 IAEA technical aid projects in Iran. This would uphold a December U.N. ban on giving Iran technology and know-how of use in making atomic fuel.

ElBaradei, however, praised an apparent nuclear climb-down by North Korea, whose own confrontation with the world eased when it agreed on February 13 to dismantle its nuclear arms program and readmit IAEA inspectors expelled four years ago.

"I welcome the Beijing agreement, and the invitation to visit North Korea, as positive steps toward the denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula and toward the normalization of North Korea's relationship with the agency," he told the board.

ElBaradei goes to Pyongyang on March 13 to work out details of the nuclear shutdown, including production of plutonium, and redeploying inspectors by mid-April to ensure the secretive Stalinist state upholds the pact.

"This process has to be completed within 60 days so we have a short time span (to achieve it) ...," ElBaradei told reporters.

If he comes back from North Korea with clearance to dispatch inspectors, the board will convene a special session probably in late March to formally approve their return, officials said.

A February 22 IAEA report said Iran was installing cascades, or networks, of 164 centrifuges each in its underground uranium enrichment plant in a bid to graduate from research-level refinement of nuclear fuel to a basis for "industrial-scale" production, with some 3,000 centrifuges due to be set up by May.

Iran had not begun pumping uranium gas into cascades at the Natanz plant for enrichment, as it had said it would by the end of February, diplomats said. But it was still refusing to let the IAEA set up remote monitoring cameras in the cascade hall.

[Rasputin]

ديپلمات*ها گفتند: قدرت*هاى بزرگ احتمالا پيش*نويس قطعنامه جديد تحريم*ها عليه ايران را تا پايان هفته تكميل نمي*كنند.

به گزارش خبرگزارى رويترز پس از دور ديگر مذاكرات كشورهاى 1+5 در روز گذشته (سه شنبه)، ديپلمات*ها گفتند كه اين كشورها پيش*نويس قطعنامه جديد را آنطور كه انتظار مي*رفت تا پايان اين هفته تكميل نمي*كنند.
برغم سه دور مذاكرات تلفنى مقامات وزارت خارجه كشورهاى 1+5 در هفته گذشته، نشست سه شنبه به توافق دست نيافت.
وانگ گوانگيا نماينده چين در سازمان ملل متحد گفت:پس از دو روز مذاكره، پايتخت كشورهاي*مان آنچه بايد انجام شود را منعكس مى كنند و احتمال دارد پنج*شنبه به نيويورك بازگرديم.
يك ديپلمات ديگر كه خواست نامش فاش نشود، گفت: ظاهرا پيش*نويس قطعنامه اين هفته تكميل نمي*شود، هرچند10 عضو شوراى امنيت پيش از اين انتظار قطعنامه را داشتند.
دوميسانى كومالو نماينده آفريقاي*جنوبى در سازمان ملل متحد كه كشورش رياست دوره اى شوراى امنيت را برعهده دارد، به خبرنگاران گفت: اگر پيش*نويس قطعنامه به زودى ميان همه اعضاى شوراى امنيت سازمان ملل متحد منتشر نشود, بسيار دلسرد و نااميد مي*شوم.
كومالو افزود: به من گفته شده است كه عناصر قطعنامه، منع سفر الزام*آور مقامات ايرانى است كه در بر نامه موشك بالستيك و هسته اى فعاليت مي*كنند. به علاوه اسامى شركت*ها و افراد بيشترى به ليست كسانى كه دارايى آنها درخارج مسدود مي*شود و كسانى از سفر منع مي*شوند، افزوده مي*شود.
وى افزود: گسترش ليست مواد و فناوري*هايى كه ايران مي*تواند صادر يا وارد كنند، تحت بررسى قرار دارد.
آلخاندو ولف نماينده آمريكا در سازمان ملل متحد نيز گفت: درباره برخى ,عناصر, قطعنامه توافق كلى داريم و فكر مي*كنم درك خوبى درباره جايى كه بايد به آن پيش*روى كنيم، داريم اما هنوز بسيار زود است كه بگوييم كه ,به توافق رسيده*ايم,.
وانگ گوانگيا و ويتالى چوركين نماينده روسيه در سازمان ملل متحد هر دو گفته*اند كه قطع*نامه جديد مهلت شصت روزه به ايران مي*دهد تا با درخواست آنها براى توقف فعاليت غني*سازى اورانيوم موافقت كند.
امير جونز پارى نماينده انگليس در سازمان ملل متحد نيز از پيشرفت يكنواخت كشورهاى 1+5 خبر داد و گفت: به طور فزاينده*اى درباره اين موضوع پيشرفت كرده*ايم.
توماس متوسك نماينده آلمان در سازمان ملل متحد نيز دوشنبه گفت: ما قصد نداريم به شركت*هاى كوچك يا متوسط آسيب برسانيم، بنابراين قطعنامه بايد به روشى تنظيم شود كه بتوانيم پيام خود را منتقل كنيم.

[Rasputin]

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran has started construction of a domestically built nuclear power plant, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization was quoted as saying on Tuesday.

Iran's first atomic power station is being built by Russians but is not yet complete. Iran, embroiled in a row with the West over its nuclear programme, has previously said it planned to build power stations on its own.

"At the demand of the president (Mahmoud Ahmadinejad), the construction of the first domestic nuclear power plant with capacity of 360 MW has started," Atomic Energy Organization chief Gholamreza Aghazadeh was quoted by ISNA news agency as saying. He did not give further details.

"The enemies know they cannot weaken the will of our people to obtain peaceful nuclear energy and that is why they make it look like there are different opinions in the country," he said.

Ahmadinejad has faced criticism by some of his more moderate opponents for making anti-Western speeches, which the critics say have exacerbated Iran's standoff with the West.

Iran's dispute with Western nations focuses on its determination to enrich uranium, a process which Tehran says will only be used to produce fuel for nuclear power plants. The West says it is part of a covert plan to build atomic bombs.

Russia has said it will delay starting up Iran's first nuclear power station because Iran is behind in payments, although Tehran denies payment delays.

The 1,000 MW plant being built at the port of Bushehr in southwest of Iran had been due to start up in September. The first fuel supplies from Russia for the plant were due to be delivered this month.

Iran, the world's fourth biggest oil producer, says it wants to build a network of nuclear power stations to prepare for the day when its oil and gas reserves run out and to maximize exports in the meantime.

[Rasputin]

VIENNA (AFP) - The European Union was set to condemn Iran for failing to heed a UN call to suspend sensitive nuclear fuel work but still urge negotiations, at a meeting of the UN atomic agency this week in Vienna.

A draft of an EU statement to be delivered on Thursday says that the EU "reaffirms its continuous support for efforts to find a negotiated long-term solution to the Iranian nuclear issue," according to a copy of the text shown to AFP.

The EU says "a comprehensive offer is still on the table and the door remains open," referring to a deal of trade, security and technology benefits for Iran if it guarantees it will not seek nuclear weapons.

But the EU says it "deplores that Iran has not complied with the terms of UNSC (UN Security Council) resolution 1737," which calls on Iran to halt uranium enrichment work and to stop building a reactor that could produce plutonium.

Plutonium and enriched uranium can be nuclear reactor fuel but also atom bomb material. Iran claims it only wants to use nuclear power to generate electricity and not for weapons work.

The International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation board of governors is to discuss both the North Korean and Iranian nuclear programmes on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the IAEA circulated to the board Tuesday a letter Oman had sent last month to IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei on behalf of the Arab League expressing "deep concern and great disquiet" over Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's comments in December that seemed to confirm that Israel has the bomb.

In a German television interview Olmert said: "Iran openly, explicitly and publicly threatens to wipe Israel off the map. Can you say that this is the same level, when they are aspiring to have nuclear weapons, as France, America, Russia and Israel?"

Israel is believed to have some 200 atom bombs but has a policy of neither confirming nor denying this.

Oman's letter said "Arab States consider Israel's possession of military nuclear capabilities to be a clear violation of the will of the international community."

Egyptian ambassador to the IAEA Ramzy Ezzeldin said the purpose of the letter was "to put the whole thing on record, that a statement was made and to remind that this is a serious issue that will not go away."

The matter is to be discussed Thursday at the board, with some non-aligned states wanting to see IAEA technical aid to Israel cut, much as aid to Iran is being slashed, diplomats said.

Israel is not a signatory to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and so is not subject to IAEA safeguards inspections.

Iran is, and Arab states complain that it is unfair to scrutinize Tehran for allegedly developing nuclear weapons when Israel has them and is not under IAEA monitoring.

On Monday, IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei told the IAEA's governing board that the agency was still unable to verify that Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons, as the United States claims it is.

ElBaradei said it was "long overdue" for Iran to "answer all the agency's questions and concerns about its past nuclear activities in an open and transparent manner."

The IAEA's 35-nation board of governors will discuss a report from ElBaradei documenting Iran's failure to heed the Security Council call to suspend uranium enrichment and cooperate fully with IAEA inspectors, diplomats said.

The IAEA is then expected to approve a nearly 50 percent cut in its technical aid to Iran as part of Security Council sanctions imposed December 23 on the Islamic Republic.

ElBaradei will also report to the board on his planned trip next week to North Korea to discuss the return of IAEA inspectors to the communist country in the wake of Pyongyang's agreeing to dismantle its nuclear weapons program.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said Tuesday that Iran is prepared to hold negotiations as long as Washington set no preconditions.

But US officials insist that Iran halt nuclear fuel work before talks can start.

Diplomats from the United States and Iran are expected to attend a conference on Iraq's security in Baghdad on March 10, but Tehran has said there will be no bilateral contacts at the event.

On Monday in New York envoys from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany met to consider a new draft resolution that would tighten the sanctions already adopted by the council.