Nuclear Crisis

[Rasputin]

[Rasputin]

طرح "سپر دفاع ضدموشکی" در شرق اروپا، به دهه*ها پیش بازمی*گردد؛ به زمانی که ایالات متحده برای انهدام موشک*های شوروی سابق و سپس چین، پیش از اصابت آنها به اهداف مورد نظرشان، طرحی را به نام دفاع استرتژیک مطرح کرد.

این طرح بعدها و بخصوص پس از فروپاشی شوروی سابق و کشورهای سوسیالیستی در شرق اروپا تغییر شکل داد و در نهایت در سال ۲۰۰۲، جرج دبلیو بوش رییس جمهور ایالات متحده اعلام کرد که به*خاطر امکان دستیابی "کشورهای سرکش" و حامی تروریسم به کلاهک*های اتمی، آمریکا "سیستم دفاع ضدموشکی" را با جدیت بیشتری دنبال خواهد کرد.


Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: سیستم دفاعی آمریکابرای جلوگیری از حمله*ی موشکی

کار "سپر دفاع ضدموشکی" ردیابی موشک*های پرتاب*شده با استفاده از یک سیستم کامل راداری*ست. این سیستم دفاعی پس از ردیابی و شناسایی موشک*های پرتاب*شده، آنها را پیش از اصابت به هدف منهدم می*کنند.



پس از طرح این موضوع توسط بوش، برخی از کشورهای اروپایی نیز از آمریکا خواستند که تحت پوشش این سیستم دفاعی قرار گیرند. در سال*های اخیر نیز، ایالات متحده، در خصوص "سپر دفاع ضدموشکی" مذاکراتی را با برخی کشورهای شرق اروپا دنبال کرد و قرار شد که این سیستم در لهستان و جمهوری چک مستقر شود.



دولت آمریکا هدف از استقرار "سپر دفاع ضدموشکی" در شرق اروپا را، دفاع از کشورهای اروپایی در قبال حمله احتمالی موشکی کشورهایی مانند ایران و کره شمالی به اروپا عنوان کرده است. این در حالی*ست که ایران در سال*های اخیر پرتاب چند موشک دوربرد و میان*برد را آزمایش کرده است.



واکنش روسیه به برنامه آمریکا برای استقرار "سپر دفاع ضدموشکی" در شرق اروپا بسیار تند بود. ولادیمیر پوتین رییس جمهور روسیه اعلام کرد که این اقدام آمریکا به دور تازه*ای از مسابقه تسلیحاتی انجامیده و توازن استراتژیک در جهان را بر هم خواهد زد. پوتین هم*زمان هشدار داد که در صورت عملی شدن برنامه آمریکا، روسیه نیز اروپا را با موشک*های خود، نشانه خواهد گرفت. رییس جمهور روسیه پیشتر نیز مطرح کرده بود که اروپا از طریق سیستم دفاعی آمریکا، به "انبار باروت" تبدیل می*شود.


Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: صحنه*ای ازفیلم ویدیویی آزمایش موشک*های دفاعی آمریکا


دکتر قاسم شعله*سعدی استاد علوم سیاسی و کارشناس روابط بین*الملل استقرار سیستم دفاعی در شرق اروپا را خطری برای روسیه نمی*بیند و معتقد است که رشد فزاینده توان نظامی ایران، می*تواند اقدام آمریکا را در چارچوب دیپلماسی بین*المللی توجیه*پذیر کند.



اما دکتر ابراهیم یزدی دبیرکل نهضت آزادی ایران، با این نظر مخالف است و توان آینده نظامی ایران را دلیلی موجه برای استقرار سیستم دفاعی آمریکا در اروپا نمی*داند. او معتقد است که تنها تقاضای اتحادیه اروپا و یا دست*کم "ناتو" می*توانست توجیه*گر استقرار "سپر دفاع ضدموشکی" آمریکا در اروپا باشد.



علی لاریجانی دبیر شورای عالی امنیت ملی ایران نیز در مصاحبه*ای با خبرگزاری "ایرنا"، ادعای آمریکا مبنی بر استقرار "سپر دفاع ضدموشکی" برای حفاظت از اروپا در قبال حمله موشکی ایران را "جوک سال" خواند. وی تاکید کرد که موشک*های ایران توان هدف قرار دادن اروپا را ندارند و دلیلی هم وجود ندارد که ایران بزرگ*ترین شریک تجاری خود، یعنی اروپا را هدف قرار دهد.



دکتر پرویز ورجاوند عضو شورای مرکزی جبهه ملی ایران، در عین اینکه با نگاهی تردیدآمیز به مانورهای نظامی چندسال گذشته ایران می*نگرد که می*توانند بهانه*ای به دست آمریکا برای جلب افکار عمومی جهان علیه ایران بدهند، خطر یک مسابقه تسلیحاتی جدید میان شرق و غرب را محتمل می*داند.



دکتر یزدی نیز قصد آمریکا را تغییر توازن استراتژیک در سطح جهان می*داند و هم*نظر با مقامات روسیه، بر خطر بوجود آمدن یک مسابقه تسلیحاتی جدید تاکید می*کند.



اما میرک توپولانک نخست*وزیر جمهوری چک نیز که امروز نخستین میزبان سفر ۸ روزه*ای جرج بوش به اروپا بود، سپر دفاعی را ضروری ارزیابی می*کند. او تاکید دارد که تهدید دولت*هایی مانند ایران برای اروپا واقعی*ست و اروپا بایستی برای دفاع از خود آماده باشد. نخست*وزیر محافظه*کار چک به جرج بوش اطمینان می*دهد که ایالات متحده می*تواند کاملا روی حمایت جمهوری چک حساب کند: «من فکر می*کنم، اصل این است که جرج بوش کشور ما را با علم به این مسئله ترک کند که جمهوری چک موتلف آمریکاست. او بایستی با این حس برود که ما در سویه*ی دیگر نایستاده*ایم و کشوری نیستیم که کسی، هر که می*خواهد باشد، بتواند برای ما تکلیف معین کند. من معتقدم که این یک پیروزی بزرگ برای دیپلماسی و دولت ماست که بوش به پراگ آمده است».



روسیه و ایران در برابر استدلال آمریکا برای استقرار سیستم دفاعی آمریکا در اروپا موضعی مشابه گرفته*اند. آیا این امر می*تواند باعث نزدیکی بیشتر روسیه به ایران و بازتر شدن فضا برای جمهوری اسلامی جهت پیشبرد برنامه هسته*ای*اش شود؟ دکتر ورجاوند چنین اعتقادی ندارد و بر آن است که روسیه حتا بیش از کشورهای غربی از پیشرفت نظامی ایران ناخشنود خواهد شد.



کرملین در حالی عامل مسابقه تسلیحاتی احتمالی جدید را، برنامه دفاعی آمریکا در شرق اروپا عنوان می*کند که خود هفته گذشته (۲۹ مه) موشک جدید قاره*پیمایی را در شمال روسیه آزمایش کرد. طبق گفته مقام*های دولتی روسیه این موشک می*تواند از هر نوع سپر دفاعی بگذرد. جالب اینجاست که روس*ها، کار روی ساختن این موشک را مدتها پیش از برنامه آمریکا برای استقرار "سپر دفاع ضدموشکی" در شرق اروپا آغاز کرده بودند.

[Rasputin]

American President George W. Bush used his platform at the G8 summit to continue spreading the paranoia of fearing states like Iran and North Korea as they are bent on bringing death and destruction to the world and pose a grave threat to international security. In speech after speech countering Russian objections to the so-called American 'Missile Defense Shield' in Europe, Mr. Bush claimed that the two remaining members of the "axis of evil" must be confronted by the 'international community' before it is too late and that in order to defend Europe against these "rogue states", America must be allowed to forge ahead with implementing its Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system there.

For those not familiar with the BMD, it is supposed to intercept Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBM's) in mid-flight using Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) missiles that track incoming armaments and disable them while still in flight. There is one major problem -- no such interceptor program currently under development has ever been tested successfully [1] despite years of research forcing the U.S. military to conduct "scripted" tests using "surrogate" interceptors [2] against artificially slow moving targets with pre-known flight paths in order to give the false impression that the program actually works. A real missile traveling at much higher speed and not broadcasting its coordinates can probably evade it altogether. But aside from technical challenges that may be good enough reason to stay out of such American plans, the political repercussions far outweigh any benefits.

A far more compelling argument almost never mentioned by anyone in the media is that cooperating in implementing such a system, functional or not, would be against international law because missile defense programs are prohibited under the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABM) signed between the United States and Russia in 1972. The treaty prohibits either side from constructing such a system for the simple reason that they are perceived and indeed are offensive rather than defensive in nature especially when deployed outside one's territory half way across the world.

A properly deployed and working missile shield allows one country to launch a nuclear first strike against another, while protecting itself from any retaliatory counter strike which is why international reaction to such a system has been almost uniformly negative. Russian President Vladimir Putin is on the record [3] stating that "if the US proceeds to void the ABM treaty, [Russia] will withdraw from the whole system of treaty relations having to do with the limitation and control of nuclear arms". Thus Mr. Bush's assurances ring hollow with Putin as well as the rest of the global community wary of the new American grand strategy aiming at dismantling international laws and non-proliferation efforts such as ABM and Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) in order to secure its own hegemony.

Articles I and II of the NPT prohibits the non-nuclear states from attempting to acquire nuclear weapons or aid other nations in acquiring such technology. In return, the five nuclear armed states namely U.S., Britain, France, Russia, and China agreed under article VI to deemphasize nuclear weapons in their security doctrines and enter into negotiations in good faith with each other to significantly reduce and eventually eliminate their nuclear arsenals. It was also understood that non-nuclear states would always have the option to withdraw from the treaty and acquire nuclear weapons if they felt threatened by the more powerful, nuclear armed states.

But the current administration in Washington has ushered in a whole new chapter in American foreign policy threatening every international security agreement reached in the last four decades. In 2001, the Pentagon produced a new policy document called the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) [4], stating openly for the first time that America would not only not reduce and eliminate but rather continue to rely heavily on nuclear weapons for its security and would actually modernize its existing arsenal. It recommended a radical shift from past policies of "nuclear deterrence", under which nuclear weapons were to be used only for retaliation against a nuclear attack, to one of preemptive nuclear first strike. North Korea and Iran were specifically mentioned as nations that could be attacked with nuclear weapons. This policy effectively abolished prior security agreements by reserving the right to drop nuclear bombs on North Korea and Iran regardless of whether or not they possessed nuclear weapons.

The NPR also promoted the development of new "mini-nukes" and "bunker-busters" weapons to be used in these "counter-proliferation" strikes. It urged Congress to lift the ban on nuclear testing so that these new weapons could be developed and old ones could be upgraded and modernized in order to project U.S. nuclear superiority far into the future. It also emphasized that U.S. should work at developing a missile defense system to counter any "rogue states". The new policy openly violated every single relevant component of the Non-Proliferation Treaty as well as disregarding the terms of the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty.

The effects of this new policy have been catastrophic. The open rejection of disarmament has provided incentive for other nuclear powered nations, especially Russia and China, to continue modernizing their own arsenals while shunning any disarmament efforts. Denouncing American rejection of its obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, they have hinted that if the U.S. does not discard the doctrine of preemptive nuclear first strike and missile defense system, they would be left with no choice but to engage in a new nuclear arms race. At the same time, non-nuclear nations, especially those levied with unjust sanctions and threats of nuclear annihilation, feel they can no longer rely on NPT or United Nations to guarantee their security.

This arrogantly dangerous and hypocritical policy of 'do as I say and not as I do' is clearly what has become the hallmark of the new world Empire. In his book 'Pirates and Emperors' [5], Noam Chomsky tells a story of a captured pirate who was brought before Alexander the Great. "How dare you molest the sea?" asked Alexander. "How dare you molest the whole world?" the pirate replied: "Because I do it with a little ship only, I am called a thief; you, doing it with a great navy, are called an emperor."

Daniel M Pourkesali is a member of the Campaign Against Sanctions and Military Intervention in Iran.

NOTES

[1] Washington Post: U.S. Missile Defense

[2] Washington Post: Interceptor System Set, But Doubts Remain

[3] Washington Post: National missile 'defense' - The ultimate bait-and-switch

[4] Federation of American Scientists: NUCLEAR POSTURE REVIEW

[5] Noam Chomsky: Pirates and Emperors, Old and New: International Terrorism in the Real World

[Rasputin]

سران كشورهاى عضو گروه هشت روز جمعه با صدور بيانيه*اى به نشست سه روزه خود در هايليگن دام آلمان پايان دادند.

در بيانيه مذكور بخشهاى مختلفى از محورهاى مذاكرات اين اجلاس مورد توجه قرار گرفته است كه بخش مربوط به برنامه*هاى هسته*اى ايران به شرح ذيل است:
"جلوگيرى از گسترش و تكثير سلاح*هاى كشتار جمعى و سيستم*هاى حامل اين سلاح*ها و مبارزه موثر و جدى با تروريسم بين*المللى براى صلح جهانى و امنيت بين*المللى اهميت ويژه*اى دارد.

ما گروه هشت بطور مشترك معتقد هستيم كه بايد با چالش جهانى تكثير سلاح مقابله كنيم و از تمامى بيانيه*هاى اجلاس*هاى گذشته سران گروه هشت در اين زمينه، حمايت مي*كنيم و تلاش مي*كنيم آنها را محقق كنيم.

ما بايد براى موفقيت خود با شركاى ديگر و نهادهاى بين*المللى بويژه سازمان ملل متحد همكارى كنيم تا همه ابزارهاى خود را براى مقابله با تكثير سلاح*هاى كشتار جمعى و سيستم*هاى حامل آنها تقويت نماييم .

ما بر نقش محورى شوراى امنيت سازمان ملل متحد براى غلبه بر چالش از طريق تكثير سلاح*هاى كشتار جمعى نيز تاكيد داريم .

ما برحق مسلم قيد شده در معاهده منع تكثير سلاح*هاى اتمى ان پى تى براى همه كشورها براى استفاده مسالمت آميز از انرژى اتمى تاكيد داريم .

ما مصمم هستيم با چالش*هاى منطقه*اى در بخش تكثيرسلاح با ابزارهاى ديپلماسى مقابله كنيم و همچنان معتقديم كه نگرانى نشات گرفته از امكان تكثير سلاح كه در برنامه سلاح اتمى ايران وجود دارد را بايد رفع كنيم .

ما متاسفيم كه ايران تعهدات خود را در قبال قطعنامه*هاى ، ۱۷۳۷ ۱۶۹۶و ۱۷۴۷شوراى امنيت سازمان ملل متحد را تاكنون محقق نكرده است و چنانچه ايران همچنان تحقق اين تعهدات خوددارى كند خواستار تحريم*ها و تدابير ديگرى عليه اين كشور هستيم .

ما براى چندمين بار از ايران مي*خواهيم كه تدابيرى را كه جامعه جهانى از اين كشور خواسته است و قطعنامه*هاى سازمان ملل متحد اين كشور را ملزم به اجراى آن كرده است محقق كند و كليه فعاليت*هاى بازيافتى و غني*سازى را در بخش توسعه و تحقيق متوقف كند تا به اين وسيله آغاز مذاكرات دوباره ممكن شود.

ايران مي*تواند از طريق ايجاد اعتماد در جامعه بين*المللى ، نسبت به طبيعت مسالمت آميز برنامه اتمى خود يك صفحه جديد در مناسبات با ما نه تنها در بخش انرژى اتمى بلكه حتى در بخشهاى سياسى ، اقتصادى و فن آورى ايجاد كند.

ما در اين رابطه از سياست و رفتار آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى حمايت مي*كنيم و از ايران مي*خواهيم كه بطور نامحدود با اين آژانس همكارى كند".

[Rasputin]

مشاور دبيرکل اتحاديه عرب
برخی کشورهای عرب
نگران برنامه اتمی ايران اند





«هشام يوسف» مشاور دبيرکل اتحاديه عرب، در مصاحبه ای که خبرگزاری "ايسنا" با وی انجام داد گفت:

دولت*های عربی بر اين عقيده*اند كه نبايد در هيچ كجای خاورميانه و در دست هيچ طرفی سلاح* اتمی باشد. اکنون برخی از كشورهای منطقه نوعی نگرانی از برنامه اتمی ايران دارند و لازم است ايران قدم هائی برای رفع اين نگرانی بردارد. در اين ارتياط کاری از دست اتحاديه* عرب بر نمی آيد، زيرا، اين ايران است كه بايد شبهات را رفع کند. ايران است که بايد دنيا را از صلح*آميز بودن فعاليت*های اتمی خود مطمئن سازد.

[Rasputin]

آژانس بین المللی پرونده ایران را بررسی می کند


شورای حکام گزارش خودداری ایران از عمل به قطعنامه شورای امنیت را بررسی می کند
شورای حکام آژانس بین المللی انرژی اتمی گزارش مربوط به فعالیت هسته ای ایران را بررسی می کند و یک مقام ایرانی عازم گفتگو با مقامات اتحادیه اروپا شده است.
روز دوشنبه، 11 ژوئن، شورای حکام آژانس بین المللی انرژی اتمی اجلاس فصلی خود را آغاز می کند و طی آن، گزارش مدیرکل آژانس درباره فعالیت های هسته ای ایران را مورد بررسی قرار می دهد در حالیکه در این گزارش مغایرت اقدامات جمهوری اسلامی با قطعنامه های شورای امنیت تصریح شده است.

گزارش محمد البرادعی، مدیرکل آژانس بین المللی، در اواخر ماه مه و در خاتمه مهلت دو ماهه شورای امنیت به ایران برای عمل به قطعنامه شماره 1747 تسلیم شورای حکام آژانس و شورای امنیت سازمان ملل متحد شد.

در قطعنامه های شورای امنیت از ایران خواسته شده است که برخی فعالیت های هسته ای خود به خصوص در زمینه غنی سازی اورانیوم را به حالت تعلیق در آورد اما ایران این قطعنامه ها را غیرقانونی خوانده است.

مقامات جمهوری اسلامی گفته اند که غنی سازی اورانیوم را با هدف تکمیل چرخه سوخت نیروگاه های هسته ای دنبال می کنند و این فعالیت را از جمله حقوق این کشور به عنوان یکی از امضا کنندگان پیمان منع گسترش جنگ افزارهای هسته ای - ان پی تی - دانسته اند.

در مقابل، کشورهای غربی گفته اند به دلیل اینکه جمهوری اسلامی فعالیت های اتمی خود را برای چند سال بدون آگاهی و نظارت آژانس بین المللی انرژی اتمی دنبال می کرد، تعهدات خود در قالب ان پی تی را نقض کرده و اطمینان جامعه بین المللی را از دست داده است.

این کشورها در مورد صلح آمیز بودن فعالیت های اتمی ایران ابراز تردید کرده و گفته اند تا حصول اطمینان از صلح آمیز بودن این فعالیت ها، خواستار تعلیق غنی سازی اورانیوم در جمهوری اسلامی هستند.

مذاکرات ایران و اروپا

گزارش مدیرکل آژانس می تواند زمینه اقدام بعدی شورای امنیت سازمان ملل در تصویب قطعنامه سختگیرانه تری علیه ایران و تنبیه های بین المللی جدیدی علیه این کشور را فراهم آورد.

ملاقات وعیدی با مقامات اروپایی باب مذاکره ایران اروپا را باز نگاه می دارد

همزمان، خبرگزاری دولتی ایران - ایرنا - گزارش کرده که روز دوشنبه، جواد وعیدی، معاون بین الملل شورای عالی امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی، با رابرت کوپر، معاون مسئول سیاست خارجی اتحادیه اروپا ملاقات می کند.

سرپرستی مذاکرات هسته ای ایران را علی لاریجانی، دبیرشورای عالی امنیت ملی بر عهده دارد که اواخر ماه گذشته با خاویر سولانا، مسئول سیاست خارجی اتحادیه اروپا، دیدار و گفتگو کرد.

گرچه در پی مذاکرات آقایان لاریجانی و سولانا نتیجه ای قطعی گزارش نشد، اما برخی از ناظران گفته اند دولت ایران می کوشد از طریق این مذاکرات و ادامه تماس با کشورهای اروپایی، تمایل خود برای حل بحران کنونی از راه مذاکره را نشان دهد.

روز یکشنبه، سخنگوی وزارت خارجه ایران در مورد مذاکرات بعدی علی لاریجانی و خاویر سولانا گفت که نفس این مذاکرات مثبت است اما تاریخ قطعی برای دور بعدی گفتگوها تعیین نشده است.

وی در عین حال تعلیق فعالیت در زمینه غنی سازی اورانیوم را رد کرد و گفت که "ایران نه به عنوان پیش شرط، نه در حین مذاکرات و نه به عنوان نتیجه مذاکرات، موضوع تعلیق غنی سازی را نمی پذیرد."

سخنگوی وزارت خارجه گفت که روال عادی فعالیت های هسته ای جمهوری اسلامی ادامه دارد.

[Rasputin]

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran faces heightened criticism over its escalating nuclear activity at a U.N. watchdog meeting this week that will provide a barometer of sentiment for broader sanctions against Tehran.

The regular June session of the International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation governing board starting on Monday will focus global attention on Iran's rapidly expanding uranium enrichment program and its reduced cooperation with IAEA inspectors.

The United States and key allies suspect Iran is pursuing the means to make atom bombs behind the facade of a civilian nuclear energy program. Iran says it wants only electricity from enrichment, but has hindered IAEA investigations for years.

"Criticism of Iran will be stronger than before since it is both extending enrichment and reducing cooperation. It doesn't bode well. The standoff will worsen," said an Asian diplomat.

A May 23 IAEA inspector report said Iran had not only ignored a U.N. deadline to stop enrichment but had made big strides in its program since the start of this year.

A U.N. official said Iran now had 2,000 centrifuges on line and was on pace for 3,000 by next month. That would lay the basis for "industrial scale" enrichment that could yield enough refined uranium for an atom bomb within a year.

Iran says it will only enrich uranium to the low grade required for atomic power reactors, not the far higher grade needed for bombs.

IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei upset Western powers last month by saying their bid to deny Iran the requisite technology had been "overtaken by events." Their demand for suspension as a foundation for negotiations no longer seemed realistic, he said.

Washington rejected ElBaradei's remarks as interference and may push at the board for swift U.N. Security Council action on wider sanctions, backed by close Western allies, although Russia and China could well urge caution and more diplomacy first.

"DETERIORATING KNOWLEDGE"

IAEA board members will also voice deep concern over the agency's "deteriorating knowledge," cited by the report, about the scope of Iranian nuclear activity.

In April, Iran stopped providing advance design information on planned nuclear sites, such as a heavy-water reactor.

For over a year, Iran has limited inspections to declared nuclear sites, barring short-notice visits to other areas to probe indications of undeclared activity with military links.

A senior European diplomat said no board member state, not even from the Non-Aligned Movement of developing nations to which Iran belongs, objected to the report's findings when the 35 were briefed by a senior IAEA official last week.

"Iran's behavior is making it pretty lonely now," he said, adding that unless Tehran changed approach quickly, "there will be no alternative but to resume the Security Council approach."

A Western diplomat said Iran was also reneging on a deal allowing short-notice inspections at its underground centrifuge plant by preventing inspectors from walking around among the machines and taking pictures. Two other diplomats said they were told Iran was delaying some inspector trips to the Natanz plant.

But senior U.N. officials said there were no problems with access to Natanz. "Inspectors had to reschedule some visits to ensure certain equipment or people needed on either side are available, but just a day or two later," one told Reuters.

The board will also debate an increase in the IAEA budget for 2008 after ElBaradei complained of "shoestring" funding even though nuclear proliferation threats are spreading.

[Rasputin]

نخستين روز اجلاس حکام اتمی
مذاکرات با ايران تکراری و بی نتيجه است!
گمانه زنی پيرامون زمان
آزمايش اتمی در ايران




خبرگزاری های جهان روز گذشته از وين پايتخت کشور اتريش گزارش های متعددی درباره اجلاس شورای حکام اتمی و بررسی قطعنامه جديدی که قرار است بزودی در شورای امنيت سازمان ملل عليه ايران تصويب شود مخابره کردند. در راس اين اخبار، قطع مذاکره ديپلماتيک با نمايندگان جمهوری اسلامی قرار داشت. از جمله رها کردن و نيمه تمام ماندن مذاکراتی که درحاشيه اجلاس حکام با معاون علی لاريجانی دبر شورای امنيت ملی با نمايندگان آژانس انرژی اتمی جريان داشت. اين مذاکرات را بر خلاف دفعات گذشته نه البرادعی رئيس آژانس، بلکه قائم مقام وی هدايت می کرد که گفته می شود قرار است جانشين البرادعی شود و به همين دليل می کوشد با اتخاذ مواضعی تند عليه برنامه های اتمی جمهوری اسلامی حساب خود را از حساب البرادعی جدا کند. او در وين گفت که ادامه گفتگو با نماينده جمهوری اسلامی (قائم مقام لاريجانی) بيهوده است و تنها وقت تلف می شود، زيرا حرف های ايران همگی تکرار حرف های گذشته است. در همين ارتباط خبرگزاری فرانسه گزارش داد: بحران برنامه اتمی ايران درحال تشديد است و به همين جهت گمانه زنی ها درباره زمان دستيابی و آزمايش اتمی ايران آغاز شده است. اين گمانه زنی ها فاصله ای از آينده ای نزديک تا سال 2009 را شامل می شود.

[Rasputin]

VIENNA (Reuters) - EU talks with Iran on its nuclear program broke off in failure on Monday, diplomats said, and the U.N. atomic watchdog said Tehran's behavior posed a serious concern it might gain the ability to build atom bombs.



Diplomats said the meeting between Iranian deputy nuclear negotiator Javad Vaeedi and a top aide of European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana, to prepare for higher level talks, foundered because Vaeedi would not discuss issues of substance.

"It was a failure," said one diplomat. Another said a planned meeting between Vaeedi and two senior officials of the watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had been cancelled for the same reason.

The aborted meetings underlined the growing crisis over Iran's nuclear program as Western countries consider whether to push for a third, harsher round of U.N. Security Council sanctions to try to force Iran to halt enrichment work.

The United States and its allies fear Iran is trying to develop atomic bombs behind the facade of a nuclear energy program, rather than generate the electricity it says it needs for peaceful economic development.

Iranian chief negotiator Ali Larijani promised Solana at a May 31 meeting in Madrid to do more to clear up IAEA inquests into its program. But Tehran said the gesture depended on an end to Security Council action -- a nonstarter for world powers.

IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei told a meeting of its 35-nation board of governors that Iran was raising proliferation fears by significantly expanding its uranium enrichment program while curbing cooperation with inspectors.

"This is disconcerting and regrettable." he said in a downbeat speech opening the weeklong board meeting.

EXPANDING PROGRAMME

"The facts on the ground indicate that Iran continues steadily to perfect its knowledge relevant to enrichment, and to expand the capacity of its enrichment facility," said ElBaradei.

"This is taking place without the agency being able to make any progress in its efforts to resolve outstanding issues relevant to the nature and scope of Iran's nuclear program."

At the same time, ElBaradei said he was growing alarmed about the "current stalemate and brewing confrontation" between Iran and world powers, which he fears could lead to U.S.-Iranian war inflaming the Middle East without a diplomatic compromise.

For over a year, Iran has limited inspections to declared nuclear sites, barring short-notice visits to other areas to probe indications of undeclared activity with military links.

In April, Iran stopped providing advance design information on planned nuclear sites, such as a heavy-water reactor.

A May 23 IAEA inspector report said Iran had not only ignored a U.N. deadline to stop enrichment but had made big strides in its program since the start of this year.

A U.N. official said Iran now had 2,000 centrifuges on line and was on pace for 3,000 by next month. That would lay the basis for "industrial scale" enrichment that could yield enough refined uranium for an atom bomb within a year.

Iran insists it will only refine uranium to the grade required for power reactors, not the far higher concentration needed for nuclear explosives.

ElBaradei upset Western powers last month by saying their bid to deny Iran the requisite technology had been "overtaken by events" because their demand for suspension as a foundation for negotiations on trade incentives no longer seemed realistic.

He has suggested Western powers compromise by seeking to cap Iranian enrichment activity short of what would be needed to make bombs, rather freeze it outright.

But Washington rejected ElBaradei's remarks as interference that would encourage Iranian hardliners and may push at the board for swift Security Council action on wider sanctions, backed by close Western allies.

[Rasputin]

خبرگزارى فرانسه از وين گزارش داد: ديپلمات*ها روز سه*شنبه گفتند كه آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى معتقد است ايران مي*تواند تا پايان سال جارى ميلادى (آذر/دى) ۸هزار سانتريفيوژ براى غني*سازى اورانيوم راه*اندازى كند.


يك ديپلمات نزديك به آژانس در حاشيه نشست اعضاى شوراى حكام در وين گفت: نگرانى از اين جهت است كه ايراني*ها تعداد حساسى سانتريفيوژ در اختيار خواهند داشت.

ديپلمات مزبور خاطرنشان كرد: "محمد البرداعى" مدير كل آژانس بين*المللى انرژى اتمى در گفت وگوهاى خصوصى به رهبران سياسى گفته است كه ايران در حال "پيشرفت ثابت" در زمينه غني*سازى اورانيوم است و هيچ نشانه*اى از آهسته شدن اين روند نيز نشان نمي*دهد.

خبرگزارى فرانسه نوشت: تهران اتهام*هاى آمريكا مبنى بر تلاش براى دستيابى به سلاح هسته*اى را به شدت تكذيب مي*كند و مي*گويد با توجه به محدود بودن منابع انرژى فسيلي، خواستار توليد انرژى هسته*اى براى جمعيت رو به افزايش ايران است.

ديپلمات مزبور مدعى شد: در حالى كه ايران قابليت*هاى غني*سازى خود را افزايش مي*دهد، آژانس بين*المللى انرژى در مورد ايران نظام بازرسى مورد نياز را براى نظارت بر فعاليت*هاى هسته*اى جمهورى اسلامى ندارد.

يك ديپلمات ديگر نزديك به آژانس گفت: درصورتى كه ايراني*ها بخواهند اين تعداد زياد سانتريفيوژ فعال را داشته باشند، "احتمالا اين كار را خواهند كرد."
البرادعى اعلام كرده است كه ايران تا روز ۱۳مه ( ۲۳ارديبهشت) تعداد يك*هزار و ۳۰۰سانتريفيوژ فعال در نطنز داشته است.

يك مقام عالى رتبه نزديك آژانس گفت: ايران مي*تواند با داشتن ۳هزار دستگاه سانتريفيوژ فعال تا پايان ماه ژوئن ( ۹تير) به هدف خود مبنى بر غني*سازى در مقياس صنعتى دست يابد.

[Rasputin]

VIENNA (AFP) - The UN atomic agency thinks Iran could have 8,000 centrifuges enriching uranium by December, a significant rise in nuclear capability likely to fuel fears that Tehran seeks nuclear weapons, diplomats said Tuesday.

"The concern is that they will have a sensitive number of centrifuges without having resolved the question marks surrounding the history of Iran's programme," a diplomat close to the watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said.

"It becomes more sensitive the more they have. It becomes a greater proliferation concern," the diplomat told AFP.

The diplomat said IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei has been telling political leaders in private conversations that Iran was making "steady progress" in uranium enrichment and shows no sign of slowing down.

"ElBaradei is saying that Iran will have 8,000 centrifuges running if the current pace (of installation) continues" at its enrichment plant in Natanz, the diplomat said, adding that, from a proliferation point of view, ElBaradei was becoming "increasingly concerned."

ElBaradei had Monday told an IAEA meeting here that the "brewing confrontation" with Iran over its atomic ambitions "must be defused."

ElBaradei said "dialogue and diplomacy are ultimately the only way to achieve the negotiated solution foreseen in the relevant Security Council resolutions."

The UN Security Council has imposed two rounds of sanctions to get Iran to completely halt uranium enrichment, which makes nuclear reactor fuel but also atom bomb material, and to provide information about suspect nuclear activities.

The IAEA has after more than four years of investigation failed to resolve key questions about Iran's nuclear programme.

Tehran vehemently denies US accusations that it seeks nuclear weapons, saying it wants only to generate electricity.

Washington says it seeks a diplomatic solution but has not ruled out military action.

The diplomat said Iran was increasing its enrichment capability without the IAEA having the inspection regime in place that is needed to monitor Tehran's atomic work.

Iran had, as of May 13, over 1,300 centrifuges enriching uranium at the underground, heavily bunkered facility in Natanz, according to ElBaradei.

Iran could reach its goal of industrial scale production with 3,000 centrifuges running by the end of June, a senior official close to the IAEA said.

That number could make enough enriched uranium for a bomb in less than a year, experts say.

A second diplomat close to the IAEA said ElBaradei's estimate of Iran obtaining 8,000 centrifuges was based on "the technical assessment of his inspectors" and so was sound.

But Gary Samore, a New-York-based non-proliferation analyst, struck a note of caution.

He told AFP that "whatever the number of centrifuges Iran is running, the question is performance and in particular whether the machines are capable of operating at high velocities for a long period of time without a high failure rate."

Samore said the "everybody, including our friends in Israel, seems to be pretty relaxed and feel that what Iran has working is not very significant because of the question of performance."

But he said the United States might be playing down Iran's technological prowess since it "has decided that it doesn't want a crisis with Iran right now" due to its military problems in Iraq.

But the diplomat said the United States and other nations are "are fooling themselves about Iran's nuclear capabilities. They are in a state of denial."

The diplomat said "Iran's nuclear capability clearly shows that the only way to resolve this issue is direct negotiation."

ElBaradei has said the West should accept that Iran has acquired the knowledge to enrich and that it is unrealistic to expect it to halt this work entirely.

But US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has accused ElBaradei of "muddying the message" from the international community that Iran must abandon all enrichment activities.

[Rasputin]

A senior Iranian member of parliament said on Tuesday that the Islamic Republic is ready to pay the price for safeguarding its nuclear rights, the official IRNA news agency reported.

Head of the National Security and Foreign Policy Commission of the Majlis (parliament) Alaedd in Boroujerdi made the remarks in his meeting with Vice Speaker of Ghanaian Parliament Malek al-Hassan Yaccob.

Boroujerdi expressed hope that ongoing negotiations between Iran and Europe on the nuclear issue will lead to mutual understanding within the framework of the legal rights of Iranian nation.

His remarks came just one day after Iran held high-level nuclear talks with the European Union on the occasion of an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) meeting in Vienna.

Javad Vaedi, a deputy to Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani, met earlier today with Robert Cooper, a top aide of EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana, which was intended to prepare for more talks between Larijani and Solana.

"Today's working session was good. I consider it kind of constructive ... (but) you should not expect kind of a huge miracle," Vaedi said.

"We made progress but one cannot expect miracles in this business," Cooper, together with Vaedi, told reporters at a pressbriefing following the meeting.

Larijani met with Solana in Madrid, Spain more than ten days ago, for talks that failed to break the deadlock over Tehran's nuclear program.

Although Larijani and Solana agreed to intensify their dialogue with another face-to-face in a meeting in two weeks' time, the date has yet to be set.

On March 24, the UN Security Council unanimously adopted a new resolution, the second punitive one, with tougher sanctions to pressure Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment activities.

However, an IAEA report two weeks ago said that Iran continued to resist the U.N. Security Council ban on enrichment and instead was expanding its activities.

The United States is using the IAEA meeting to gather support for a third round of sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

[Rasputin]

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran does not care if the United Nations passes any more resolutions against it because of its nuclear program, the president said on Wednesday.



Mahmoud Ahmadinejad expressed his country's defiance as world powers consider carrying out their threat to impose new sanctions against Iran over what the West fears is a program aimed at making an atomic bomb.

"The Iranian nation does not give the slightest value to your resolutions," Ahmadinejad said in a televised speech in Semnan, a city east of the capital.

The U.N. Security Council has imposed two rounds of sanctions on Iran, which says its nuclear work is only to generate electricity.

The International Atomic Energy Agency believes Iran could be running 8,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium by December, raising a significant risk it could make bombs, diplomats said.

"The information (about the 8,000 centrifuges), would obviously, if confirmed, increase the concerns of the international community in this respect," French Foreign Ministry spokesman Jean-Baptiste Mattei told reporters.

Tehran is on track to have 3,000 on line in July, diplomats briefed on IAEA inspections said, enough to yield enriched material for a bomb within a year if there were no hitches and if Iran wanted.

Diplomats say IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei had briefed the United States and European Union that Iran looked on target for 8,000 machines, although some question if the U.N. watchdog was in a position to accurately determine Iran's nuclear advances.

"For over 16 months now, the IAEA has had no access to the workshops where Iran was making centrifuges or to its stockpile of raw material," said Mark Fitzpatrick, senior nuclear analyst at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

'SLAP IN THE MOUTH'

Ahmadinejad expressed defiance at any new U.N. action.

"We are in the final stage and if they (world powers) want to continue on the wrong path, they can only take one more step. The next step, with God's help, ... will not have any impact (on Iran)," he said without elaborating.

In what has almost become a tradition when he addresses rallies around the country about the nuclear standoff, the crowd chanted back: "Nuclear energy is our obvious right."

"This nation will slap those who threaten it in the mouth," the president said.

The United States, leading efforts to isolate Iran, has said it wants to resolve the row through diplomacy but has not ruled out military action if that route fails.

Although officials regularly shrug off the impact of sanctions, foreign and even local businesses say they are increasingly wary of investing. Bankers say worries about risk are also pushing up costs of trade with Iran.

"What the Iranian nation says about the nuclear issue is just one word and that is 'justice'. If there is a law, it should be for everyone," the president said.

"(They) don't even want us to have science and technology ... This injustice will not be acceptable for the Iranian nation," he added.

Iran regularly says it is being singled out for unfair treatment over its nuclear ambitions, which it says is aimed at building a network of nuclear power plants so it can preserve its massive oil and gas reserves for exports.

The IAEA says Iran must answer questions about its ambitions before its program can be given a clean bill of health.

[Rasputin]

VIENNA (Reuters) - Iran warned on Thursday it may reconsider basic cooperation with United Nations nuclear inspectors if it was hit with harsher U.N. sanctions over its expanding atomic program.

Iran's ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency also said Tehran had mastered the means to enrich uranium for nuclear fuel and world powers must accept that fact instead of trying to stop the work through sanctions.

Ambassador Ali Asghar Soltanieh said Iran, in keeping with parliamentary legislation mandating such moves, had already stopped what he called voluntary measures of cooperation with the IAEA in response to sanctions imposed since last year.

"After each ( U.N. Security Council) resolution, each action, there is a reaction, a prompt reaction from Iran," he told reporters on the sidelines of a meeting of the IAEA's 35-nation board of governors.

"But options are limited... We (remain) fully committed to our (basic) Safeguard Agreement with IAEA, but this has to be duly considered (again) with (respect to) those who are looking for confrontation," he said, referring to Western powers.

Iran says it aims to refine uranium only to the low level required for civilian energy, not the high level suitable for bombs. But Tehran's past concealment of activity from inspectors and stonewalling of IAEA inquiries have stoked suspicions.

Instead of halting enrichment, as the U.N. Security Council has demanded, Iran has rapidly expanded its program, prompting EU powers to warn on Wednesday it faced stiffer sanctions in addition to the two rounds the Security Council has imposed.

In early 2006 Iran stopped allowing inspectors to make short-notice visits to sites not declared to be part of the nuclear program.

This April, Iran stopped providing advance design information on planned nuclear sites, including a heavy-water reactor.

Soltanieh said IAEA inspectors had documented significant Iranian strides towards creating a nuclear energy industry and said this showed it was irreversible.

The IAEA says Iran continues to provide regular inspector access to its declared uranium-processing and enrichment installations in Isfahan and Natanz as required by its Safeguards Agreement with the Vienna-based agency.

Diplomats have said Iran has been delaying some inspections at the underground Natanz enrichment complex. But IAEA officials say inspectors have enough presence to verify Iran is not diverting nuclear materials into illicit bombmaking.

[Rasputin]

VIENNA (AFP) - UN nuclear chief Mohamed ElBaradei called Thursday on Iran to declare a moratorium on expanding its uranium enrichment work in order to open the way to talks on its suspected atomic weapons programme.

"It would be good if Iran today would stop building additional centrifuges and installing (them) in Natanz. I think that could be a first step toward a time-out or freeze for peace," ElBaradei told reporters as his International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) closed a four-day meeting in Vienna.

ElBaradei said Iran has "no urgency in building (enrichement) capacity right now" since it did not have any nuclear power plants running.

ElBaradei has proposed a "time-out" in which Iran would suspend uranium enrichment, which makes nuclear reactor fuel but also atom bomb material, and the UN Security Council would hold off on further sanctions against the Islamic Republic.

This would open the door to talks between Iran and world powers on giving Tehran trade, security and political benefits in exchange for it guaranteeing it does not seek nuclear weapons.

ElBaradei said a unilateral moratorium by Iran "could help at least send a right message while they continue to work with us on clarifying the outstanding issues (about their nuclear programme) and while they discuss with the Europeans the posibility for a time out."