Finally Israel is making sure that the “fear” in the Arab world against the clout of Israel remains intact and that the Arabs are reminded they are nothing (i.e. 1 Israeli life = 100 other lives). This is to make sure that when they come to unilaterally draw the borders later on (as Likud said they would do), the Arabs-in-fear don’t make much noise and go with it, even if it means cutting into Palestinian territories or having a stupid wall which means a farmer cannot get to his land.
I think this was trap and Iran knows it and you can see this from the way they are responding. Minus the usual Ahmadinejad chatter, there has on the whole been a very cautions response. In this week’s Friday prayers there was no fiery rant and Iran is working really hard to avoid getting involved in this militarily. They have even on multiple times officially denied giving Hezbollah either money or arms, which is unusual and not consistent with an enthusiastic pursuit of all out war with Israel. It may well be that some of the missiles the Hezbollah has are from Iran, but this would only be natural because of the historic links.
But if Iran was itching or even ready for this, it would have given Hezbollah much better equipment. Iran has far more advanced stuff than the Katuysha or Zelzal or whatever it is they are firing. But why the public support for Hezbollah then? Well that is easy, regardless of how this started, Iran knows full well that it cannot -- in public- be seen as shying away from Hezbollah.
In the “negotiations” that will follow this on the Iranian nuclear file, one of Iran’s bargaining chips has always been Hezbollah and to make sure that the West believe that Hezbollah will -- for example -- lash out at Israel if Iran was attacked, then it is imperative that it doesn’t undermine it now by criticizing its actions. In the letter which was sent by Kharrazi’s brother to the Swiss 4 years ago, one of the main things Iran was prepared to “offer” was to dismantle Hezbollah.
So now Iran must back it, if only to make sure that the West will continue to see Hezbollah as a threat which will come to the help of Iran if its nuclear file goes the military way, and that for Iran, it remains an issue on which it can get major concessions. Hence it was a case of that for whatever reason Hezbollah got themselves involved in this mess, Iran HAD to back it -- at least in public, until its “grand” bargain with the West over it nuclear file was done.
Once Iran has the security guarantees it is after and some major concessions, I think we will all be surprised by the shift of policy in Tehran. Many observers say that despite the rhetoric, Iran has been ready for some time to go “passive” over Israel and accept a position similar to for example Qatar’s (of course far from Egypt or the Saudi’s). It was Iran who 3 years ago intervened to quiet down the northern Israeli border and in the same letter I mentioned above, they explicitly mentioned that recognizing Israelis right to exists could be on the table for Iran. But it wont do that unless it get some major concessions.
But would Hezbollah do something like this on its own? Yes its possible. Ever since the occupation of Lebanon has ended Hezbollah has grown and strengthened itself. It practically runs everything it south Lebanon including hospitals and schools. In response to speculations that Iran might be attacked, in a speech which received little coverage, Nasrallah said that “Hezbollah would not be fighting Iran’s wars”.
With this in mind it is very easy to see how this mess could have happened. Israel sets a trap, Hezbollah who are full of confidence take the bait and now Iran is left to pick the pieces. Iran will not back off from supporting Hezbollah because that would be international suicide, and Hezbollah cannot back off because that would be the end of them in Lebanon. If they don’t get at least something from Israel, they would have destroyed Lebanon for nothing.
And meanwhile Israel is finding a convenient excuse to destroy Lebanon, hit hard at Hezbollah and send a very clear message to Iran and Syria that if for two soldiers who are still alive, they will destroy a whole country and kill women and children regardless, then for a ballistic missile threat from Iran, they might even go for a tactical nuclear pre-emptive strike on Iran.
As for why Hezbollah took the bait? As far as they are concerned they have unfinished business with Israel. Israel has not still released prisoners from 20-25 years ago, and since they are “supposed” to have pulled out from Lebanon, they have had multiple incursions into Lebanon where they killed and captured dozens of Lebanese which is in addition to the almost daily Mosad assassinations. They were also supposed to release mine-maps of southern Lebanon which of course hasn’t happened. All this is doesn’t even include the Apartheid that they have made in Palestine.
So despite Israel’s best efforts to portray this as an “unprovoked” action, Hezbollah probably saw this as a legitimate “response” against the IDF (and not even a civilian target), especially as it looked like an easy target. Hezbollah tried to play by the rules and hit the army, and they probably didn’t expect for Israel to go mad and lash out in the way they have. Given that they had captured and traded prisoners with Israel before many times, and full of confidence, they most likely didn’t think too much of this and didn’t expect such a response, to want to get clearance from Tehran. What of course they probably didn’t know was that it was easy because it was supposed to be easy and the response is vicious because it was also supposed to be.
And once again Israel has shown that it also has world media by the balls. They successfully ensure that to criticize Israel, you will be seen as either anti-Semitic or pro-terrorist. So you either have to remain silent, or be in support of the barbaric IDF attacks. When you put 2 and 2 together, it add up to Iran starting all this. This is bad for Iran, and it would have been bad no matter how it unwrapped. At the same time, it is working wonders for Israel. They are getting away with murder and telling the world that the “old Israel” is back. So who started it? I am not sure, but I am sure who will come out the winner.
I think this was trap and Iran knows it and you can see this from the way they are responding. Minus the usual Ahmadinejad chatter, there has on the whole been a very cautions response. In this week’s Friday prayers there was no fiery rant and Iran is working really hard to avoid getting involved in this militarily. They have even on multiple times officially denied giving Hezbollah either money or arms, which is unusual and not consistent with an enthusiastic pursuit of all out war with Israel. It may well be that some of the missiles the Hezbollah has are from Iran, but this would only be natural because of the historic links.
But if Iran was itching or even ready for this, it would have given Hezbollah much better equipment. Iran has far more advanced stuff than the Katuysha or Zelzal or whatever it is they are firing. But why the public support for Hezbollah then? Well that is easy, regardless of how this started, Iran knows full well that it cannot -- in public- be seen as shying away from Hezbollah.
In the “negotiations” that will follow this on the Iranian nuclear file, one of Iran’s bargaining chips has always been Hezbollah and to make sure that the West believe that Hezbollah will -- for example -- lash out at Israel if Iran was attacked, then it is imperative that it doesn’t undermine it now by criticizing its actions. In the letter which was sent by Kharrazi’s brother to the Swiss 4 years ago, one of the main things Iran was prepared to “offer” was to dismantle Hezbollah.
So now Iran must back it, if only to make sure that the West will continue to see Hezbollah as a threat which will come to the help of Iran if its nuclear file goes the military way, and that for Iran, it remains an issue on which it can get major concessions. Hence it was a case of that for whatever reason Hezbollah got themselves involved in this mess, Iran HAD to back it -- at least in public, until its “grand” bargain with the West over it nuclear file was done.
Once Iran has the security guarantees it is after and some major concessions, I think we will all be surprised by the shift of policy in Tehran. Many observers say that despite the rhetoric, Iran has been ready for some time to go “passive” over Israel and accept a position similar to for example Qatar’s (of course far from Egypt or the Saudi’s). It was Iran who 3 years ago intervened to quiet down the northern Israeli border and in the same letter I mentioned above, they explicitly mentioned that recognizing Israelis right to exists could be on the table for Iran. But it wont do that unless it get some major concessions.
But would Hezbollah do something like this on its own? Yes its possible. Ever since the occupation of Lebanon has ended Hezbollah has grown and strengthened itself. It practically runs everything it south Lebanon including hospitals and schools. In response to speculations that Iran might be attacked, in a speech which received little coverage, Nasrallah said that “Hezbollah would not be fighting Iran’s wars”.
With this in mind it is very easy to see how this mess could have happened. Israel sets a trap, Hezbollah who are full of confidence take the bait and now Iran is left to pick the pieces. Iran will not back off from supporting Hezbollah because that would be international suicide, and Hezbollah cannot back off because that would be the end of them in Lebanon. If they don’t get at least something from Israel, they would have destroyed Lebanon for nothing.
And meanwhile Israel is finding a convenient excuse to destroy Lebanon, hit hard at Hezbollah and send a very clear message to Iran and Syria that if for two soldiers who are still alive, they will destroy a whole country and kill women and children regardless, then for a ballistic missile threat from Iran, they might even go for a tactical nuclear pre-emptive strike on Iran.
As for why Hezbollah took the bait? As far as they are concerned they have unfinished business with Israel. Israel has not still released prisoners from 20-25 years ago, and since they are “supposed” to have pulled out from Lebanon, they have had multiple incursions into Lebanon where they killed and captured dozens of Lebanese which is in addition to the almost daily Mosad assassinations. They were also supposed to release mine-maps of southern Lebanon which of course hasn’t happened. All this is doesn’t even include the Apartheid that they have made in Palestine.
So despite Israel’s best efforts to portray this as an “unprovoked” action, Hezbollah probably saw this as a legitimate “response” against the IDF (and not even a civilian target), especially as it looked like an easy target. Hezbollah tried to play by the rules and hit the army, and they probably didn’t expect for Israel to go mad and lash out in the way they have. Given that they had captured and traded prisoners with Israel before many times, and full of confidence, they most likely didn’t think too much of this and didn’t expect such a response, to want to get clearance from Tehran. What of course they probably didn’t know was that it was easy because it was supposed to be easy and the response is vicious because it was also supposed to be.
And once again Israel has shown that it also has world media by the balls. They successfully ensure that to criticize Israel, you will be seen as either anti-Semitic or pro-terrorist. So you either have to remain silent, or be in support of the barbaric IDF attacks. When you put 2 and 2 together, it add up to Iran starting all this. This is bad for Iran, and it would have been bad no matter how it unwrapped. At the same time, it is working wonders for Israel. They are getting away with murder and telling the world that the “old Israel” is back. So who started it? I am not sure, but I am sure who will come out the winner.


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