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Iranian cards include its major influence in Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Syria as well as its minor influences in Pakistan, Bahrain, Yemen and UAE. In addition they have been preparing themselves for a possible military confrontation with the US for quite some time and are fully mobilised for a long and bloody conflict (explained in detail in “US vs Iran: The Hybrid War”). Their main card however is the threat of blocking the Strait of Hormuz. Another card is the possibility of attacking the oil tankers in the Persian Gulf or their loading terminals in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and elsewhere in the Gulf. The American bases in Bahrain and Qatar, not to mention the 140000 US troops in Iraq are also seen as targets should hostilities break-out. Iran can also directly attack Israel with its long-range missiles from Iran or shorter-range missiles from Lebanon. It can also leave NPT and follow the North Korean example.
Saudi Arabia and the “moderate” Arab states have very few cards to play with. They can support US (as usual) and risk a major upheaval in their region and countries, or they can support Iran and risk the wreath of US and its support for their governments. They have so far tried unsuccessfully to play the American card without any results. However, now they have finally got an Ace to play with, and that is Iran. They can use the Iranian card to force the US to pressure Israel into making the necessary concessions. They can demand that should their latest peace initiative be ignored by Israel, they would support Iran. This seems plausible, since after King Abdullah’s discussion with Iran’s Ahmadinejad, both countries stated that they would try to stop the sectarian rift within the Muslim world, and more importantly, Iran quietly backed the King’s proposed peace plan. At the same time the Lebanese crisis seems to have quieted down and a Palestinian unity government has been created. All these indicate that Saudis and Iranians are trying to reduce tension and concentrate on getting the Palestinian peace plan started. However the tension over Iraq remains.
Should the Saudi peace plan be rejected, the Arab trio, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan will lose any credibility that they have left in the region and with their own populations. They will then have no choice but to take a very hard stance against the US and Israel or risk losing power.
Israel, despite its recent reversals of fortunes in Palestine and Lebanon, still has a very strong hand, namely its supporters in US (AIPAC and others). To understand the situation one simply has to look at AIPAC. The US presidential hopefuls (Republicans and Democrats) have to appear before AIPAC and declare their undying loyalty to Israel’s security and interest before they can even hope to be nominated by their respective parties. So if the Iranians or Arabs think that somehow, they can pressure Israelis through US to withdraw to 1967 borders, they are sadly mistaken. History has shown that only an Israeli government that wants peace above a greater Israel or a beaten Israel will be willing to withdraw from the occupied territories.
Anyway, the rulers of Jordan and Egypt are more sensitive than Israel to pressures from US. They also lack credibility. Currently 4000 Hezbollah fighters have more credibility than half of the Egyptian army.
What now?
One can say with certainty that no single group in US has ever damaged US interests as badly and as seriously as the Neocons have. What started as a grand plan for securing Israel and oil reserves has turned into a bottomless basket for the US treasury and prestige. By destroying Iraq, US destroyed the existing balance of power in the Middle Eat and now by being stuck in the Iraqi quagmire, it has given countries such as Russia and China the opportunity to spread their influence and power beyond what was feasible only 5 years ago. It has also destroyed the myth of invulnerability and military superiority of both US and Israel. Iraqi insurgents and Hezbollah fighters have shown that the brute force is not the answer and no amount of fire-power can secure an occupied territory without the cooperation of the local population. Afghanistan, Lebanon and Iraq are good example of this.
By now all the players have laid their cards face upward. The US has displayed its armada in the Persian Gulf and gotten its UN sanctions approved. Iran has displayed its military preparedness by conducting dozens of military manoeuvres and has shown its influence in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. Russia by using Iran and its gas and oil supplies has shown itself as a major player in international arena and hence has forced others to once again take it seriously. India made deals with US and got itself accepted as a Nuclear power. Pakistan using its position in the war on terror also got-off scot-free and joined the nuclear club. China has shown that as long as others do not interfere with its commercial interests, it is willing for the time-being, to stay semi-neutral. The “moderate” Arabs, so far, have played the follow the leader strategy. In the process they have lost both influence and prestige. The only cards left to them is to play US against Iran (or vice versa) and Israeli-Palestinian peace initiative. Israel has played its hand in both Lebanon and Palestine and lost. The only card left to it is US.
By now all players know what they can and can not do. US knows that it can not control Iraq and has to withdraw. Iran knows that it can not replace US in Iraq and needs the support of either US or Saudi Arabia. Israel knows that its security depends on coming to terms with Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Hammas. All these point only to one direction: negotiations between US, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
There are already rumours of secret negotiations. It makes sense for US, Iran and Saudi Arabia to come to some kind of agreement. This agreement will most likely require Israel to vacate Golan Heights, Shabba Farms, and major parts of the West-Bank. In return Hezbollah will become a purely political party, Palestinians get their state and thereby ending their hostility towards Israel; all Arab states will recognise Israel (including Iran and Syria and Hammas), Iraq will stay united with more money going to the Sunnis; US will be able to leave Iraq without losing face; Iranians will be allowed to have a monitored nuclear fuel cycle and finally Saudis can claim the credit for arranging all this.
The major loser in all this will be the Russians. With Iran brought in from the cold, the Europeans will get access to an alternative gas supplier. They no longer have to worry about Russian supplies. Countries such as Georgia and Azerbaijan and others bordering southern Russia will have another rout for their imports and exports. Iranians will no longer have to rely solely on Russia for some of their armament, aircrafts or nuclear reactors. In other words Russia will lose most of its strategic weight in the Middle East.
The Russians must be very nervous about this. For them having Iran and Syria as friendly, dependent and anti-Western is both profitable and necessary. It should not therefore be surprising to see the Russians trying their best to stop any warming of relations between Iran-Syria and US.
China’s position will also weaken. Iran is now allowing Chinese unlimited access to its market and is agreeing to sign long-term contract for the supply of oil and gas to China. These could be diverted to Europe or US. American and European companies could also replace Chinese and Russian companies.
There are already many in Iran talking loudly about advantages of an agreement with the US. But this can only come about if all sides are willing to sit, negotiate and compromise. Today the best way out for the Middle East is a negotiated settlement between US and Iran. If that doesn’t take place, then war is inevitable. Comment
Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar lives in Norway. He is a consultant and a contributing writer for many online journals. He's a former associate professor of Nordland University, Norway.
Notes
[1] Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies | 8 July 1996 | Richard Perle et al
[2] F William Engdahl, “The US's geopolitical nightmare”, 9 May 2006
[3] The Newzealand Herald, “Olmert 'planned Lebanon war last March'”, 9 March 2007
[4] Asharq Al-Awsat, “Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood Guide Slams Arab Leaders, Calls for Israel's Expulsion”, 21 August 2006
Saudi Arabia and the “moderate” Arab states have very few cards to play with. They can support US (as usual) and risk a major upheaval in their region and countries, or they can support Iran and risk the wreath of US and its support for their governments. They have so far tried unsuccessfully to play the American card without any results. However, now they have finally got an Ace to play with, and that is Iran. They can use the Iranian card to force the US to pressure Israel into making the necessary concessions. They can demand that should their latest peace initiative be ignored by Israel, they would support Iran. This seems plausible, since after King Abdullah’s discussion with Iran’s Ahmadinejad, both countries stated that they would try to stop the sectarian rift within the Muslim world, and more importantly, Iran quietly backed the King’s proposed peace plan. At the same time the Lebanese crisis seems to have quieted down and a Palestinian unity government has been created. All these indicate that Saudis and Iranians are trying to reduce tension and concentrate on getting the Palestinian peace plan started. However the tension over Iraq remains.
Should the Saudi peace plan be rejected, the Arab trio, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan will lose any credibility that they have left in the region and with their own populations. They will then have no choice but to take a very hard stance against the US and Israel or risk losing power.
Israel, despite its recent reversals of fortunes in Palestine and Lebanon, still has a very strong hand, namely its supporters in US (AIPAC and others). To understand the situation one simply has to look at AIPAC. The US presidential hopefuls (Republicans and Democrats) have to appear before AIPAC and declare their undying loyalty to Israel’s security and interest before they can even hope to be nominated by their respective parties. So if the Iranians or Arabs think that somehow, they can pressure Israelis through US to withdraw to 1967 borders, they are sadly mistaken. History has shown that only an Israeli government that wants peace above a greater Israel or a beaten Israel will be willing to withdraw from the occupied territories.
Anyway, the rulers of Jordan and Egypt are more sensitive than Israel to pressures from US. They also lack credibility. Currently 4000 Hezbollah fighters have more credibility than half of the Egyptian army.
What now?
One can say with certainty that no single group in US has ever damaged US interests as badly and as seriously as the Neocons have. What started as a grand plan for securing Israel and oil reserves has turned into a bottomless basket for the US treasury and prestige. By destroying Iraq, US destroyed the existing balance of power in the Middle Eat and now by being stuck in the Iraqi quagmire, it has given countries such as Russia and China the opportunity to spread their influence and power beyond what was feasible only 5 years ago. It has also destroyed the myth of invulnerability and military superiority of both US and Israel. Iraqi insurgents and Hezbollah fighters have shown that the brute force is not the answer and no amount of fire-power can secure an occupied territory without the cooperation of the local population. Afghanistan, Lebanon and Iraq are good example of this.
By now all the players have laid their cards face upward. The US has displayed its armada in the Persian Gulf and gotten its UN sanctions approved. Iran has displayed its military preparedness by conducting dozens of military manoeuvres and has shown its influence in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. Russia by using Iran and its gas and oil supplies has shown itself as a major player in international arena and hence has forced others to once again take it seriously. India made deals with US and got itself accepted as a Nuclear power. Pakistan using its position in the war on terror also got-off scot-free and joined the nuclear club. China has shown that as long as others do not interfere with its commercial interests, it is willing for the time-being, to stay semi-neutral. The “moderate” Arabs, so far, have played the follow the leader strategy. In the process they have lost both influence and prestige. The only cards left to them is to play US against Iran (or vice versa) and Israeli-Palestinian peace initiative. Israel has played its hand in both Lebanon and Palestine and lost. The only card left to it is US.
By now all players know what they can and can not do. US knows that it can not control Iraq and has to withdraw. Iran knows that it can not replace US in Iraq and needs the support of either US or Saudi Arabia. Israel knows that its security depends on coming to terms with Syria, Iran, Hezbollah and Hammas. All these point only to one direction: negotiations between US, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
There are already rumours of secret negotiations. It makes sense for US, Iran and Saudi Arabia to come to some kind of agreement. This agreement will most likely require Israel to vacate Golan Heights, Shabba Farms, and major parts of the West-Bank. In return Hezbollah will become a purely political party, Palestinians get their state and thereby ending their hostility towards Israel; all Arab states will recognise Israel (including Iran and Syria and Hammas), Iraq will stay united with more money going to the Sunnis; US will be able to leave Iraq without losing face; Iranians will be allowed to have a monitored nuclear fuel cycle and finally Saudis can claim the credit for arranging all this.
The major loser in all this will be the Russians. With Iran brought in from the cold, the Europeans will get access to an alternative gas supplier. They no longer have to worry about Russian supplies. Countries such as Georgia and Azerbaijan and others bordering southern Russia will have another rout for their imports and exports. Iranians will no longer have to rely solely on Russia for some of their armament, aircrafts or nuclear reactors. In other words Russia will lose most of its strategic weight in the Middle East.
The Russians must be very nervous about this. For them having Iran and Syria as friendly, dependent and anti-Western is both profitable and necessary. It should not therefore be surprising to see the Russians trying their best to stop any warming of relations between Iran-Syria and US.
China’s position will also weaken. Iran is now allowing Chinese unlimited access to its market and is agreeing to sign long-term contract for the supply of oil and gas to China. These could be diverted to Europe or US. American and European companies could also replace Chinese and Russian companies.
There are already many in Iran talking loudly about advantages of an agreement with the US. But this can only come about if all sides are willing to sit, negotiate and compromise. Today the best way out for the Middle East is a negotiated settlement between US and Iran. If that doesn’t take place, then war is inevitable. Comment
Dr. Abbas Bakhtiar lives in Norway. He is a consultant and a contributing writer for many online journals. He's a former associate professor of Nordland University, Norway.
Notes
[1] Institute for Advanced Strategic and Political Studies | 8 July 1996 | Richard Perle et al
[2] F William Engdahl, “The US's geopolitical nightmare”, 9 May 2006
[3] The Newzealand Herald, “Olmert 'planned Lebanon war last March'”, 9 March 2007
[4] Asharq Al-Awsat, “Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood Guide Slams Arab Leaders, Calls for Israel's Expulsion”, 21 August 2006
Comment